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Combining Forecasts: Multiple Regression versus a Bayesian Approach (1989)

Walz, Daniel T. ; Walz, Diane B.

Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Decision sciences 20 (1989), S. 0

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ISSN: 1540-5915

Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005

Topics: Economics

Notes: Simple linear combinations of forecasts have consistently been found to be more accurate than individual forecasts. Several recent studies have found that combination forecasts derived by constrained or unconstrained multiple regression are more accurate than a simple average of individual forecasts. This study uses macroeconomic data to compare the accuracy of combination forecasts derived by a Bayesian methodology with the accuracy of composite forecasts derived by multiple regression. Using the forecasts of four macroeconomic variables from five well-known econometric models, the study finds that the Bayesian combination procedure produces more accurate composite forecasts than does the regression combination procedure, based on a version of Theil's U2 statistic.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5915.1989.tb01398.x

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Investigating traits of top performing software developers (2000)

Wynekoop, Judy L. ; Walz, Diane B.

Bradford : Emerald

Information, technology & people 13 (2000), S. 186-195

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ISSN: 0959-3845

Source: Emerald Fulltext Archive Database 1994-2005

Topics: Computer Science , Sociology

Notes: The recruitment, development, and retention of top performing information technology (IT) professionals is a key concern within IT organizations today. It is therefore important for IT management to understand the characteristics and behaviors of high performing IT personnel in order to identify them and to create an environment conducive to their development and retention. However, the personality traits and behaviors of top-performing developers have not received a lot of attention in the literature on IT personnel. Describes a research method for identifying and measuring the characteristics of exceptional software developers and presents the results of a pilot study using MBA students. The results of the pilot are intended to be used to refine the methodology and serve as input to future research involving IT managers. These results indicate that the research design holds the promise of providing a profile of top performing IT personnel.