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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2023-11-30
    Description: This Perspective article presents a novel, participatory scenario development method for studying the energy transition. It shows how moving towards transdisciplinarity can inform formal scenario analysis and enhance modelling by engaging stakeholders and scientific communities to co-develop energy transition scenarios. The innovative approach combines participatory elements of morphological analysis with formal cross-impact balance analysis (CIB), and it was tested at a series of energy transition scenario workshops held in 2021 both virtually and in person. Focusing on the first workshop of the series, we present the resulting data collection strategy and critically reflect on the analytical potential of the approach. We highlight the advantage of CIB in grasping the complexity and the multi-scale nature of the energy transition, as it enables computing of how different driving forces interact. We also demonstrate that leveraging morphological analysis for data collection in participatory scenario workshops yields a more participatory approach to CIB. Some limitations notwithstanding, the insights from the scenario workshops following the novel approach suggest further avenues for improving the process of online participatory scenario methods. This holds significant potential for empirical research under the conditions of a global pandemic and for scenario analysis more generally.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2023-07-27
    Description: The transition toward renewables is central to climate action. The paper empirically tests whether renewables also enhance international peace, a hypothesis discussed in the International Political Economy (IPE) of renewables literature. It develops and tests hypotheses about the pacifying effects of renewables, with a view to establishing the foundations for analyzing more detailed causal mechanisms. These mechanisms rest on the ‘energy democracy’ debate, suggesting that a low carbon world sees less interstate tension thanks to more states being democratic; the ‘capitalist peace’ theorem, establishing that the deployment of renewables brings about economic development, reducing conflict; and the human security literature, positing that renewables reduce local-level reduce vulnerabilities, thus enhancing social stability and reducing violence. Using a longitudinal dataset on global renewable energy investment, econometric tests suggest that distributed renewable energy systems do not seem to foster democratic rule, nor do they have a significant influence on human development. Countering the energy democracy literature, it is a higher concentration of renewable investment that tends to increase stability/ absence of violence and human development, instead of decentralized investment patterns. We find no evidence for the ‘peace through prosperity’ argument. Overall, there is no support for the assumption that renewables bring about peace and reduce conflict. The paper critically discusses the limitations of these findings and suggests further avenues for empirical research.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2024-01-29
    Description: In order to avoid dangerous climate change and to satisfy the global energy needs energy systems have to change. Hopes are especially high in countries of the Global South for the low-carbon transition to propel sustainable development. Yet, while the energy transition provides opportunities, it also raises questions on how to avoid new global inequalities. This study presents the first quantitative approach to measure the extent to which the energy transitions in the Global South incorporate elements of energy justice. In doing so, this study builds on a rich literature on energy justice that differentiates between distributional, recognition, and procedural justice, thus taking into account social and development objectives such as affordability and accessibility of energy, the inclusion of marginalised parts of society, as well as broader community involvement and participation. Though much important conceptual and qualitative work has been done, what has been lacking so far is a quantitative measure of the degree to which the energy transition lives up to the imperative of energy justice, going beyond the much-studied Global North. The proposed energy justice index is designed and applied to select countries from Southeast Asia (Malaysia), sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya), the MENA region (Jordan), and Latin America (Chile). The index stands the test of the empirical application and demonstrates significant variation between countries along the different dimensions of energy justice. The study also emphasizes the importance of further testing and of improving data quality for informed policy making of energy justice issues in the Global South.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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