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  • 1
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    Seismogenesis and Earthquake Forecasting: The Frank Evison Volume II (2010)
    Basel, Boston, Berlin : Birkhäuser
    Details
    Description / Table of Contents: This special issue of Pure and Applied Geophysics is the second of two volumes containing an augmented collection of papers originating from the Evison Symposium on Seismogenesis and Earthquake Forecasting held in Wellington, New Zealand, in February 2008. The volumes honor Frank Evison's interest in earthquake generation and forecasting. This volume includes descriptions of earthquake forecasting test centers through the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) program and the first results from the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Model (RELM) experiment in California. Other papers discuss methods of testing predictions, in particular by the use of error diagrams. There is discussion of prediction methodologies using seismicity, including an application of the statistical technique of Hidden Markov Models to identify changes in seismicity and a new technique for identifying precursory quiescence. Several papers employ other data besides seismicity, such as geologically determined faults, calculations of stress changes via Coulomb stress modeling, tomographically determined velocity structure, groundwater, crustal deformation, and comparisons of real earthquakes to synthetic seismicity determined from hypothesized earthquake physics. One paper focuses on the prediction of human casualties in the event that a large earthquake occurs anywhere on the globe. The volume will be useful to students and professional researchers who are interested in the earthquake preparation process and in converting that understanding into forecasts of earthquake occurrence.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (274 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9783034604994
    URL: http://link.springer.com/journal/24/167/8/
    Language: English
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    E-BOOK
  • 2
    Unknown
    Seismogenesis and Earthquake Forecasting: The Frank Evison Volume I (2010)
    Basel, Boston, Berlin : Birkhäuser
    Details
    Description / Table of Contents: This special issue of Pure and Applied Geophysics is one of two volumes containing an augmented collection of papers originating from the Evison Symposium on Seismogenesis and Earthquake Forecasting held in Wellington, New Zealand, in February 2008. The volumes honor Frank Evison's interest in earthquake generation and forecasting. A biography of Frank Evison and a list of his publications is included, as well as review papers and new research papers in the field. The volume includes papers related to Frank's most abiding interest of precursory earthquake swarms. The research contributions cover a range of current forecasting methods such as the Epidemic-Type Aftershock model, the Every Earthquake a precursor According to Scale model, Pattern Informatics, Reverse Tracing of Precursors, stochastic models of elastic rebound, and methods for handling multiple precursors. The methods considered employ a variety of statistical approaches to using previous seismicity to forecast future earthquakes, including regional and global earthquake likelihood models and alarm-type forecasts. The forecast time-frames of interest range from the short time-frame associated with clustering of aftershocks to the long time-frame associated with recurrence of major earthquakes. A recurring theme is the assessment of forecasting performance, whether by likelihood scores, skill scores, error diagrams, or relative operating characteristic tests. The volume will be useful to students and professional researchers who are interested in the earthquake preparation process and in converting that understanding into forecasts of earthquake occurrence.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (250 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9783034604970
    URL: http://link.springer.com/journal/24/167/6/
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Foundations of Statistical Seismology (2007)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Foundations of Statistical Seismology
    Description: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Rome, Italy Institute of Statistical Mathematics (ISM), Tokyo, Japan Swiss Seismological Service, Institute of Geophysics (ETH), Zürich, Switzerland
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: Erice, Italy
    Description: open
    Keywords: Statistical Seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Oral presentation
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Percolation Theory: A Model For Rock Fracture? (1990)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Geophysical journal international 100 (1990), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1365-246X
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geosciences
    Notes: Recent theoretical advances have confirmed the status of the so-called ‘scaling relations’ for percolation theory. On this pretext, their implications for the treatment of rock fracture are re-examined. Comparison between predicted and observed b-values suggest that classical percolation may be a less appropriate model than had been anticipated. Directed variants, such as first-passage, oriented and invasion percolation, may prove more successful, but at present little firm theoretical knowledge exists concerning their cluster properties. At the present time the simpler branching process appears to offer as effective a model as any for rock fracture. Major ambiguities of interpretation prevent any clear conclusions from being drawn.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1990.tb02481.x
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    A space-time clustering model for historical earthquakes (1992)
    Springer
    Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 44 (1992), S. 1-11 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9052
    Keywords: Space-time models ; cluster point processes ; earthquake modelling ; self-exciting process ; spatial branching process ; epidemic models
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes a generalization of Hawkes' self-exciting process in which each event creates a process of “offspring” with conditional intensity governed by a diffusion kernel. The process may be described as a space-time branching process with immigration, the immigration representing a background series of independent events. The model can be fitted by likelihood methods. As an illustration it is fitted to the catalogue of historical Italian earthquakes.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00048666
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Coupled Stress Release Model for Time-dependent Seismicity (1999)
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 155 (1999), S. 649-667 
    Details
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key words: Coupled stress release model, AIC criterion, historical earthquake catalog, synthetic catalog.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract —Based on the original stress release model of seismicity proposed by Vere-Jones (1978), this paper has developed a stochastic coupled stress release model of time-dependent seismicity, which considers the earthquake interaction and stress transfer between different seismic subregions. As an example, the model is applied to a statistical analysis of the historical earthquake catalog with magnitude M ≥ 6.0 during the period from 1480 to 1996 in North China. According to the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the results show that the coupled stress release model is better than the original model, which demonstrates the existence of long-range correlations between different seismic subregions. We also apply both the stochastic (original and developed coupled) models to analyze the synthetic catalog produced by a cellular automata model, which is based on mechanics of a slide-spring-damper system to model the fault network. The stress release model provides a good fit to the synthetic regional stress, and the coupled stress release model provides an improvement in fit to the synthetic catalog over the original model.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s000240050281
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Application of Linked Stress Release Model to Historical Earthquake Data: Comparison between Two Kinds of Tectonic Seismicity (2000)
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 157 (2000), S. 2351-2364 
    Details
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key Words: Historical seismicity, tectonic stress fields, stress release, stress transfer, spatial interaction, triggering mechanism.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract —The linked stress release model, incorporating a slow buildup of stress within a seismic region, its stochastic release through earthquakes and transfer between seismic regions, is applied to fit historical data from two typical kinds of seismicity: earthquakes occurring in intraplate (North China) and plate boundary (New Zealand) regions. The best model among different modifications of the basic model, which may reflect on a possible geophysical mechanism for earthquake occurrences, is obtained in terms of Akaike information criterion. For both tectonic regions studied, the linked stress release model fits the New Zealand data better than a collection of independent simple models, but is nearly indistinguishable from the simple stress release model in the case of North China. The seismicity in a plate boundary region due to subduction is more active and complex than that in an intraplate region due to collision between tectonic plates. The results highlight the major differences in tectonic seismicity, especially the heterogeneities of tectonic stress fields, and dynamic triggering mechanism with evidence that the crust may lie in a near-critical state.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/PL00001087
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    A markov model for aftershock occurence (1966)
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 64 (1966), S. 31-42 
    Details
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Summary A model for aftershocks is put forward in which it is supposed that successive aftershocks represent transitions of an energy system from one state to the next, the successive states being linked in a Markov chain. Expressions are derived for the aftershock frequency, the energy release, and the frequency-magnitude law.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00875528
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Corrections and comments to ‘A Markov model for aftershock occurrence’ (1968)
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 71 (1968), S. 203-204 
    Details
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00875341
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    On the asymptotic behaviour of subcritical branching processes with continuous state space (1968)
    Springer
    Probability theory and related fields 10 (1968), S. 212-225 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-2064
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics
    Notes: Summary A detailed account is given of the asymptotic behaviour, in the subcritical case, of a simple class of continuous-state branching processes. In particular, a recent theorem of Kuczma from the theory of functional equations is used to obtain necessary and sufficient conditions for theorems of Kolmogorov-Yaglom type to hold, thus strengthening, for the class of processes treated, some general results of Jirina. It is also shown that these results are closely related to a theorem on the convergence of sums of independent branching processes, and to certain properties of infinitely divisible distributions on the non-negative reals. The theorems are obtained in the first place for processes with unit initial quantity of “ancestor”, but in a final section it is shown that they can be extended to processes with a general initial distribution if, and only if, this distribution satisfies a regular variation condition.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00536275
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