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  • 1
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    Seismogenesis and Earthquake Forecasting: The Frank Evison Volume II (2010)
    Basel, Boston, Berlin : Birkhäuser
    Details
    Description / Table of Contents: This special issue of Pure and Applied Geophysics is the second of two volumes containing an augmented collection of papers originating from the Evison Symposium on Seismogenesis and Earthquake Forecasting held in Wellington, New Zealand, in February 2008. The volumes honor Frank Evison's interest in earthquake generation and forecasting. This volume includes descriptions of earthquake forecasting test centers through the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) program and the first results from the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Model (RELM) experiment in California. Other papers discuss methods of testing predictions, in particular by the use of error diagrams. There is discussion of prediction methodologies using seismicity, including an application of the statistical technique of Hidden Markov Models to identify changes in seismicity and a new technique for identifying precursory quiescence. Several papers employ other data besides seismicity, such as geologically determined faults, calculations of stress changes via Coulomb stress modeling, tomographically determined velocity structure, groundwater, crustal deformation, and comparisons of real earthquakes to synthetic seismicity determined from hypothesized earthquake physics. One paper focuses on the prediction of human casualties in the event that a large earthquake occurs anywhere on the globe. The volume will be useful to students and professional researchers who are interested in the earthquake preparation process and in converting that understanding into forecasts of earthquake occurrence.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (274 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9783034604994
    URL: http://link.springer.com/journal/24/167/8/
    Language: English
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    E-BOOK
  • 2
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    Seismogenesis and Earthquake Forecasting: The Frank Evison Volume I (2010)
    Basel, Boston, Berlin : Birkhäuser
    Details
    Description / Table of Contents: This special issue of Pure and Applied Geophysics is one of two volumes containing an augmented collection of papers originating from the Evison Symposium on Seismogenesis and Earthquake Forecasting held in Wellington, New Zealand, in February 2008. The volumes honor Frank Evison's interest in earthquake generation and forecasting. A biography of Frank Evison and a list of his publications is included, as well as review papers and new research papers in the field. The volume includes papers related to Frank's most abiding interest of precursory earthquake swarms. The research contributions cover a range of current forecasting methods such as the Epidemic-Type Aftershock model, the Every Earthquake a precursor According to Scale model, Pattern Informatics, Reverse Tracing of Precursors, stochastic models of elastic rebound, and methods for handling multiple precursors. The methods considered employ a variety of statistical approaches to using previous seismicity to forecast future earthquakes, including regional and global earthquake likelihood models and alarm-type forecasts. The forecast time-frames of interest range from the short time-frame associated with clustering of aftershocks to the long time-frame associated with recurrence of major earthquakes. A recurring theme is the assessment of forecasting performance, whether by likelihood scores, skill scores, error diagrams, or relative operating characteristic tests. The volume will be useful to students and professional researchers who are interested in the earthquake preparation process and in converting that understanding into forecasts of earthquake occurrence.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (250 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9783034604970
    URL: http://link.springer.com/journal/24/167/6/
    Language: English
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    E-BOOK
  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Long-range earthquake forecasting based on a single predictor with clustering (1993)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Geophysical journal international 113 (1993), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1365-246X
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geosciences
    Notes: The methodology for formulating and testing a predictive hypothesis of earthquake occurrence based on a single predictor (Rhoades & Evison 1979) has been extended to allow for a cluster of similar precursors being related to a subsequent cluster of mainshock events. The hazard is conveniently represented by conditional intensity, from which probability is readily derived, and which can be updated as new information becomes available.This method has been applied to the generalized swarm hypothesis, tests of which are in progress in New Zealand and Japan. Probability distributions for the mainshock origins are estimated from magnitude-weighted locations and origin times of all the swarm earthquakes in a cluster, and from the three largest magnitudes. Hazard refinement relative to the Poisson estimate is obtained by combining the contributions for principal and secondary mainshocks. As time passes, the hazard is adjusted for further swarm occurrences, and subsequently for the occurrence or non-occurrence of mainshock events. The application of these methods is illustrated by an example from Japan, using combined regression data.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1993.tb00893.x
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
    Fulltext
  • 4
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    Monoclonal antibody analysis of keratin expression in the central nervous system. (1987)
    National Academy of Sciences
    Details
    Publication Date: 1987-05-01
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
    Published by National Academy of Sciences
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  • 5
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    Ground-Motion Prediction Equations for Subduction Slab Earthquakes in Japan Using Site Class and Simple Geometric Attenuation Functions (2016)
    Seismological Society of America (SSA)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-07-26
    Description: The frequency content of strong ground motions from subduction slab earthquakes differs significantly from that of ground motions produced by other categories (tectonic locations: shallow crustal, upper mantle, and subduction interface) of earthquakes in subduction zones. In the last two decades, a large number of records from subduction slab events have been obtained in Japan. We present a ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) for this category of earthquakes. We used a large dataset from reliably identified slab events up to the end of 2012. The GMPEs were based on a set of simple geometric attenuation functions, site classes were used as site terms, and nonlinear site amplification ratios were adopted. A bilinear magnitude-scaling function was adopted for large earthquakes with moment magnitude M w ≥7.1, with the scaling rates for large events being much smaller than for the smaller events. A magnitude-squared term was used for events with M w 〈7.1 as well as the bilinear magnitude-scaling function. We also modeled the effect of volcanic zones using an anelastic attenuation coefficient applied to a horizontal portion of the seismic-wave travel distance within possible volcanic zones. We found that excluding the records from sites with inferred site classes improved the model goodness of fit. The within-event residuals were approximately separated into within-site and between-site residuals, and the corresponding standard deviations were calculated using a random effects model. The separation of within-event residuals into within-site and between-site components allows for the possibility of adopting different standard deviations for different site classes in a probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis if desired. Online Material: Figures showing the distribution of between-event residuals with respect to magnitude and fault-top depth and the distribution of within-event residuals with respect to magnitude and source distance.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Seismological Society of America (SSA)
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  • 6
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    Ground-Motion Prediction Equations for Subduction Interface Earthquakes in Japan Using Site Class and Simple Geometric Attenuation Functions (2016)
    Seismological Society of America (SSA)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-07-26
    Description: We presented a set of ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for the horizontal components of strong-motion records from subduction interface events in Japan. We assembled and processed in a consistent manner a large set of strong-motion records from reliably identified subduction interface events up to the end of 2012. The GMPEs were based on a set of simple geometric attenuation functions, and site class was based on site period as the site parameter. We adopted a bilinear magnitude-scaling function hinged at M w  7.1 and found that the magnitude-scaling rate for large events is much smaller than that for smaller events. To reliably determine the magnitude-scaling rate for events with M w ≥7.1, we used a set of strong-motion records obtained since 1968 to increase the number of records from large events. A small number of strong-motion records are from recording stations with inferred site classes using the response spectral ratio of the horizontal-to-vertical components or a geological description of the surface soil layers. The effect of site information quality for subduction interface events was examined using a goodness-of-fit parameter from a dataset with or without the sites having an inferred site class. The site information quality made a significant difference at all spectral periods, because the model fit improved significantly when the sites with inferred classes were excluded. We modeled the effect of volcanic zones using an anelastic attenuation coefficient applied to the horizontal portion of the seismic-wave travel distance within a set of assumed volcanic zones. The within-event residuals were approximately separated into within-site and between-site components, and the corresponding standard deviations were calculated using a random effects model. The between-site standard deviations vary significantly among site classes and with spectral periods. Online Material: Figures showing distributions of between-event and within-event residuals.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Seismological Society of America (SSA)
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  • 7
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    Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models II: Information Gains of Multiplicative Hybrids (2014)
    Seismological Society of America (SSA)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-12-05
    Description: The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models experiment in California tested the performance of earthquake likelihood models over a five-year period. First-order analysis showed a smoothed-seismicity model by Helmstetter et al. (2007) to be the best model. We construct optimal multiplicative hybrids involving the best individual model as a baseline and one or more conjugate models. Conjugate models are transformed using an order-preserving function. Two parameters for each conjugate model and an overall normalizing constant are fitted to optimize the hybrid model. Many two-model hybrids have an appreciable information gain (log probability gain) per earthquake relative to the best individual model. For the whole of California, the Bird and Liu (2007) Neokinema and Holliday et al. (2007) pattern informatics (PI) models both give gains close to 0.25. For southern California, the Shen et al. (2007) geodetic model gives a gain of more than 0.5, and several others give gains of about 0.2. The best three-model hybrid for the whole region has the Neokinema and PI models as conjugates. The best three-model hybrid for southern California has the Shen et al. (2007) and PI models as conjugates. The information gains of the best multiplicative hybrids are greater than those of additive hybrids constructed from the same set of models. The gains tend to be larger when the contributing models involve markedly different concepts or data. These results need to be confirmed by further prospective tests. Multiplicative hybrids will be useful for assimilating other earthquake-related observations into forecasting models and for combining forecasting models at all timescales.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Seismological Society of America (SSA)
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  • 8
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    An Earthquake Classification Scheme Adapted for Japan Determined by the Goodness of Fit for Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (2015)
    Seismological Society of America (SSA)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-10-02
    Description: Establishing a set of ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for Japan requires earthquake source categories in the dataset. Earthquakes are typically divided into three groups: shallow crustal events that occur in the Earth’s crust, subduction interface events that occur at the interface between the crust or mantle and the subducting plate, and the subduction slab events that occur within the subducting plate. In the present study, we compared the hypocentral locations published in the catalogs of the International Seismological Centre/Engdahl–van der Hilst–Buland (ISC-EHB; Engdahl et al. , 1998 ), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), and the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The hypocentral location for the same earthquake varies significantly from one catalog to another. We used the subduction interface model from the USGS, Slab 1.0, to help guide the classification. We designed four classification schemes using locations from these three catalogs. We then fitted a set of random effects models to the strong-motion dataset from these earthquakes to assess the merits of the classification schemes. Our results showed that using ISC-EHB locations for events before 2005, and then using the preference order of catalogs as (1) JMA locations with high precision levels, (2) ISC-EHB, and (3) NEIC (excluding the events with a fixed depth) for events since 2005, together with some conditions for subduction interface events, produced the best GMPEs in terms of the maximum log likelihood. We also found that having a separate group for the earthquakes above the subduction interface, but with a depth over 25 km, improved the goodness of fit of the GMPEs. Online Material: Figures of azimuthal-dependent distance shift of epicenters between catalogs, and between-event and within-event residuals.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Seismological Society of America (SSA)
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  • 9
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    Retrospective tests of hybrid operational earthquake forecasting models for Canterbury (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-11-27
    Description: The Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence, which began in September 2010, occurred in a region of low crustal deformation and previously low seismicity. Because, the ensuing seismicity in the region is likely to remain above previous levels for many years, a hybrid operational earthquake forecasting model for Canterbury was developed to inform decisions on building standards and urban planning for the rebuilding of Christchurch. The model estimates occurrence probabilities for magnitudes M ≥ 5.0 in the Canterbury region for each of the next 50 yr. It combines two short-term, two medium-term and four long-term forecasting models. The weight accorded to each individual model in the operational hybrid was determined by an expert elicitation process. A retrospective test of the operational hybrid model and of an earlier informally developed hybrid model in the whole New Zealand region has been carried out. The individual and hybrid models were installed in the New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing Centre and used to make retrospective annual forecasts of earthquakes with magnitude M 〉 4.95 from 1986 on, for time-lags up to 25 yr. All models underpredict the number of earthquakes due to an abnormally large number of earthquakes in the testing period since 2008 compared to those in the learning period. However, the operational hybrid model is more informative than any of the individual time-varying models for nearly all time-lags. Its information gain relative to a reference model of least information decreases as the time-lag increases to become zero at a time-lag of about 20 yr. An optimal hybrid model with the same mathematical form as the operational hybrid model was computed for each time-lag from the 26-yr test period. The time-varying component of the optimal hybrid is dominated by the medium-term models for time-lags up to 12 yr and has hardly any impact on the optimal hybrid model for greater time-lags. The optimal hybrid model is considerably more informative than the operational hybrid model at long time-lags, but less so when the period of the Canterbury earthquakes is excluded from the tests. The results highlight the value of including medium-term models and a range of long-term models in operational forecasting. Based on the tests carried out here, the operational hybrid model is expected to outperform most of the individual models in the next 25 yr.
    Keywords: Seismology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 10
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    Multiplicative Earthquake Likelihood Models Based on Fault and Earthquake Data (2015)
    Seismological Society of America (SSA)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-12-02
    Description: Potential earthquake sources are revealed by the locations of earthquakes in historical and instrumental catalogs and of geologically mapped faults, including plate boundaries. We derive a set of multiplicative hybrid earthquake likelihood models that combine earthquake and fault data for the New Zealand region. In these models, the cell rates in a spatially uniform baseline model are scaled using selected subsets of five covariates derived from the magnitudes and locations of past earthquakes, the location of the boundary between the Australian and Pacific plates, and the location and slip rate of mapped faults. The hybrid model parameters are optimized for earthquakes of M  5 and greater over the period 1987–2006 and tested on earthquakes from the period 2007–2014. No updating of models is undertaken during the fitting or testing period, but we consider two cases of the earthquake-based covariates in the tests: (1) all data prior to 1987 and (2) all data prior to 2007, respectively. Hybrids containing the earthquake-based covariates perform better in the latter case. The most informative hybrid models in the fitting and testing period are composed of three and four covariates, respectively, including both earthquake- and fault-based variables. Proximity to mapped faults is overall the most informative individual covariate. These results can be used to inform better modeling of long-term earthquake occurrence rates for probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Seismological Society of America (SSA)
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