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  • 1
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    The DeepMIP contribution to PMIP4: experimental design for model simulations of the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM (version 1.0) (2017)
    European Geosciences Union
    In:  EPIC3Geoscientific Model Development, European Geosciences Union, 10(2), pp. 889-901, ISSN: 1991-959X
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-02-27
    Description: Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenarios, in particular high ( 〉  800 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Although a post hoc intercomparison of Eocene ( ∼  50  Ma) climate model simulations and geological data has been carried out previously, models of past high-CO2 periods have never been evaluated in a consistent framework. Here, we present an experimental design for climate model simulations of three warm periods within the early Eocene and the latest Paleocene (the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM). Together with the CMIP6 pre-industrial control and abrupt 4 ×  CO2 simulations, and additional sensitivity studies, these form the first phase of DeepMIP – the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project, itself a group within the wider Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The experimental design specifies and provides guidance on boundary conditions associated with palaeogeography, greenhouse gases, astronomical configuration, solar constant, land surface processes, and aerosols. Initial conditions, simulation length, and output variables are also specified. Finally, we explain how the geological data sets, which will be used to evaluate the simulations, will be developed.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
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    Glacial changes in tropical climate amplified by the Indian Ocean (2018)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018
    Description: 〈p〉The mechanisms driving glacial-interglacial changes in the climate of the Indo-Pacific warm pool are poorly understood. Here, we address this question by combining paleoclimate proxies with model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum climate. We find evidence of two mechanisms explaining key patterns of ocean cooling and rainfall change interpreted from proxy data. Exposure of the Sahul shelf excites a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback involving a stronger surface temperature gradient along the equatorial Indian Ocean and a weaker Walker circulation—a response explaining the drier/wetter dipole across the basin. Northern Hemisphere cooling by ice sheet albedo drives a monsoonal retreat across Africa and the Arabian Peninsula—a response that triggers a weakening of the Indian monsoon via cooling of the Arabian Sea and associated reductions in moisture supply. These results demonstrate the importance of air-sea interactions in the Indian Ocean, amplifying externally forced climate changes over a large part of the tropics.〈/p〉
    Electronic ISSN: 2375-2548
    Topics: Natural Sciences in General
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 3
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    Past and future rainfall in the Horn of Africa (2015)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-10-11
    Description: The recent decline in Horn of Africa rainfall during the March–May "long rains" season has fomented drought and famine, threatening food security in an already vulnerable region. Some attribute this decline to anthropogenic forcing, whereas others maintain that it is a feature of internal climate variability. We show that the rate of drying in the Horn of Africa during the 20th century is unusual in the context of the last 2000 years, is synchronous with recent global and regional warming, and therefore may have an anthropogenic component. In contrast to 20th century drying, climate models predict that the Horn of Africa will become wetter as global temperatures rise. The projected increase in rainfall mainly occurs during the September–November "short rains" season, in response to large-scale weakening of the Walker circulation. Most of the models overestimate short rains precipitation while underestimating long rains precipitation, causing the Walker circulation response to unrealistically dominate the annual mean. Our results highlight the need for accurate simulation of the seasonal cycle and an improved understanding of the dynamics of the long rains season to predict future rainfall in the Horn of Africa.
    Electronic ISSN: 2375-2548
    Topics: Natural Sciences in General
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 4
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    Glacial changes in tropical climate amplified by the Indian Ocean (2018)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-12-13
    Description: The mechanisms driving glacial-interglacial changes in the climate of the Indo-Pacific warm pool are poorly understood. Here, we address this question by combining paleoclimate proxies with model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum climate. We find evidence of two mechanisms explaining key patterns of ocean cooling and rainfall change interpreted from proxy data. Exposure of the Sahul shelf excites a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback involving a stronger surface temperature gradient along the equatorial Indian Ocean and a weaker Walker circulation—a response explaining the drier/wetter dipole across the basin. Northern Hemisphere cooling by ice sheet albedo drives a monsoonal retreat across Africa and the Arabian Peninsula—a response that triggers a weakening of the Indian monsoon via cooling of the Arabian Sea and associated reductions in moisture supply. These results demonstrate the importance of air-sea interactions in the Indian Ocean, amplifying externally forced climate changes over a large part of the tropics.
    Electronic ISSN: 2375-2548
    Topics: Natural Sciences in General
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 5
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    Simulation of Eocene extreme warmth and high climate sensitivity through cloud feedbacks (2019)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019
    Description: 〈p〉The Early Eocene, a period of elevated atmospheric CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 (〉1000 ppmv), is considered an analog for future climate. Previous modeling attempts have been unable to reproduce major features of Eocene climate indicated by proxy data without substantial modification to the model physics. Here, we present simulations using a state-of-the-art climate model forced by proxy-estimated CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 levels that capture the extreme surface warmth and reduced latitudinal temperature gradient of the Early Eocene and the warming of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. Our simulations exhibit increasing equilibrium climate sensitivity with warming and suggest an Eocene sensitivity of more than 6.6°C, much greater than the present-day value (4.2°C). This higher climate sensitivity is mainly attributable to the shortwave cloud feedback, which is linked primarily to cloud microphysical processes. Our findings highlight the role of small-scale cloud processes in determining large-scale climate changes and suggest a potential increase in climate sensitivity with future warming.〈/p〉
    Electronic ISSN: 2375-2548
    Topics: Natural Sciences in General
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 6
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    Rainfall regimes of the Green Sahara (2017)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-01-20
    Description: During the "Green Sahara" period (11,000 to 5000 years before the present), the Sahara desert received high amounts of rainfall, supporting diverse vegetation, permanent lakes, and human populations. Our knowledge of rainfall rates and the spatiotemporal extent of wet conditions has suffered from a lack of continuous sedimentary records. We present a quantitative reconstruction of western Saharan precipitation derived from leaf wax isotopes in marine sediments. Our data indicate that the Green Sahara extended to 31°N and likely ended abruptly. We find evidence for a prolonged "pause" in Green Sahara conditions 8000 years ago, coincident with a temporary abandonment of occupational sites by Neolithic humans. The rainfall rates inferred from our data are best explained by strong vegetation and dust feedbacks; without these mechanisms, climate models systematically fail to reproduce the Green Sahara. This study suggests that accurate simulations of future climate change in the Sahara and Sahel will require improvements in our ability to simulate vegetation and dust feedbacks.
    Electronic ISSN: 2375-2548
    Topics: Natural Sciences in General
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 7
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    The influence of Indian Ocean atmospheric circulation on Warm Pool hydroclimate during the Holocene epoch (2012)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-10-04
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Electronic ISSN: 2156-2202
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by American Geophysical Union
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