ALBERT

Notes: The lack of transaction data has been identified as one of the major obstacles for the empirical evaluation of real option. Quigg's study in 1993 was one of the first to empirically estimate the premium for the option of waiting to develop using data from 2,700 land sales in Seattle. This study modified Quigg's methodology and applied it to estimate the premium for the option of waiting to develop based on a sample of data from 2,286 property transactions in the UK collected over a 14-year sample period from 1984 to 1997. Based on a one-factor contingent claim valuation model, we found that the average premiums for the timing options were 28.78 percent for office sector, 25.75 percent for industrial sector and 16.06 percent for retail sector. We also tested the robustness of the theoretical-based land value estimates in explaining the market-based land values. The regression results showed a statistically significant relationship in logarithm form between the market-based residual land value and the model-based land values (with embedded timing option), with R2 of 0.75, 0.79 and 0.82 for office, industrial and the retail sectors respectively.

Notes: Asset-backed securitization (ABS) is an interesting financial innovation whereby debt instruments backed by cash flows generated from income-producing assets are issued for investment purposes in the capital markets. This study examines the characteristics of ABS transactions in Singapore and evaluates whether proper governance mechanisms have been developed to protect ABS investors. We examined the unique features of the Visor case, such as rental guarantee, large block ownerships of junior bonds, credit enhancement, embedded options, managerial relationships between the SPV and servicers, and critically evaluated the effects of these characteristics on the governance of ABS. Rules on separation of banks' participation in ABS and the accountant's requirement of "clean sale" that affect the ABS structure were also discussed. We also develop a simple information asymmetric model to evaluate the pecking order choice of two different financing methods: collateralized loans and ABS.

Notes: Option to review land rents to prevailing market rents and option to renew leases for another term are two important options embedded in the public industrial land leases in Singapore, managed by the Jurong Town Corporation (JTC). The land rents of JTC leases are reviewed every year subject to a cap on the land rent increase. The rent cap, which is historically lower than the prevailing market growth rate, widens the gap between the contract rent and the prevailing market rent as the lease progresses. This creates disincentives to the lessor for not exercising the rent review option, because the option is in-the-money. The rent gap, on the other hand, is also translated into substantial profit rents for lessees who hold onto the leasehold interests of industrial lands. By assuming two different probability distributions for the ex-ante prevailing market rents, the profit rents were simulated to derive at the values of a hypothetical 30-year lease, which range from US$47.93 (S$86.45) per square meter (psm) (Sungei Kadut, Kranji) to US$236.05 (S$425.74) psm (West Coast Highway). Based on these simulated 30-year leasehold values and assumptions of other input parameters: equated yield (e = 10 percent), risk free rate (Rf = 4.52), volatility of leasehold value (s = 15 percent), term of lease (T = 30 years) and rental growth cap (g = 7.6 percent), the premiums for the lease renewal options were estimated to be in a range of US$4.55 (S$8.21) psm to US$22.26 (S$40.15) psm.

Notes: Market critics often cited an apparent lack of relationship between corporate performance and stock prices as the main reason for a poor prediction of stock prices. This study attempts to examine whether prices of 15 sample listed property stocks in Singapore reflect their corporate fundamental values over a ten-year period from June 1989 to June 1999. Proxies for corporate fundamental values used in our study are earnings per share (EPS), dividends per share (DPS) and net asset values (NAV) of the individual property stocks listed in Singapore. From the Johansen's cointegration test results, there were long-run convergence relationships of stock prices with their fundamental values for nine of the 15 sample stocks, which implied some forms of mean reversion process of stock prices towards their fundamental values. For the nine sampled cointegrating stocks, NAV and EPS, particularly in the second-lag orders, were the most significant fundamental values in explaining the short-run dynamics of the stock price changes. The error correction mechanism (ECM) was also found to be statistically significant in the long-run convergence relationships with four sample stock prices. DPSs and lagged changes in stock prices, in comparison, were statistically significant, but in only two of the sample vector ECM relationships. The results imply that institutional investors should pay more attention to the underlying performance of stocks, in particularly the EPS and NAV, in their stock selection process.

Notes: Time on the market (TOM) has been widely tested in the US real estate literature using listing and selling data of houses captured in the multiple listing services (MLSs). Unfortunately in the UK there are no MLSs so it is not possible to undertake similar analyses. The approach adopted in this paper differs from traditional TOM analyses in that it focuses on the speed or time the market takes to correct for information differences between open market valuations and traded prices. In this context the paper introduces the concept of equilibrium time on the market (ETOM). The study therefore adopts a different approach to estimating TOM and in addition also examines the phenomenon within the UK commercial real estate sector. Based on a simple present value model, the time taken for the difference between an appraiser's estimate of open market value and known selling prices define our time on the market under equilibrium market conditions. Using the annualised UK Investment Property Databank all-property total return index for a sample period of 17 years between 1983 and 1999, the average ETOM was estimated to be 8.4 months. This figure, however, varied and depended on market conditions.

Notes: Analyses the diversification effects of the portfolio holdings of ten selected listed property investment companies on the co-movement of the stock prices for an 11-year period from 1983 to 1994. The long-term common trends in the sample securitized property companies are tested using the bivariate and the Johansen's multivariate cointegration methodologies. The empirical evidence does not reject the hypothesis that prediction of the price variation of one stock based on the change in the price of another comparable stock is possible in the long term. Also, the price convergence process was not dependent on whether two companies are practising the same diversification and/or specialisation policies. However, there is evidence that companies with large portfolio holdings can influence the stock prices of property companies with smaller portfolio holdings. This implies that arbitraging the small stocks by reading the price movement of the large firms could give possible abnormal returns to the investor.

Notes: This study tests the hypothesis of market integration between the securitised and the unsecuritised real estate market by examining the information contents of their respective ex-post conditional volatility measures. The two markets are said to be integrated if the conditional volatility terms of one market do not contain incremental information for the ex-post conditional volatility of another market. Our empirical results showed no evidence of the ex-post returns of the direct real estate (PPI) market incorporating the market volatility of the securitized real estate asset. The ex-post conditional volatility of the PPI market, which contains only information on the past shock and the past conditional volatility, is sufficient to statistically explain the variation in the log-PPI price variations. However, there was significant evidence of incremental information flowing from conditional volatility of the unsecuritized property market to the securitized property market. Therefore, the securtized and unsecuritized real estate markets are integrated, but the integration is only uni-directional. Some degree of segmentation is still observed as the information of property market (PPI) still has significant impacts on the returns of the property stock market.

Notes: This paper models the lessee's default options and estimates the economic value of the options for a lessee using a discrete time binomial American option pricing model. Results show a positive relationship of the option premium with the original rent and a negative relationship with the relocation costs. Finds that the default probability is higher for lessees who are more sensitive to rental changes and place less emphasis on the fitting-out quality. Suggests that rental volatility and rental growth rate are two significant factors that have positive relationships with the default option values. The risk-free rate, on the other hand, has an inverse relationship with the default option values because a higher risk-free interest rate reduces the present value of rental savings. Lease term length to expiration has a positive effect on the default option value, implying that the default option premium will decay as the term to expiry is shortened.

Notes: Purpose - Will the information and communications technology (ICT) prevail over the market and agglomeration forces in inducing a negative demand in office space? The evidence of long-term impact of ICT use is not conclusive at this stage. This study aims to empirically test whether space reduction effects of ICT are significant in the office market in Singapore. The study also seeks to examine variations in firms' responses, and how increasing use of ICT will impact on firms' operational and activities that include productivity, staffing structure and requirements, adoption of working practices, quality of customer service, and importance of a central meeting place. Design/methodology/approach - The primary data were collected in a mailed questionnaire survey conducted in July and August 2002, which involved a sample of 2,049 firms randomly selected from 121 office buildings located in the CBD and other key office submarkets in the fringe of CBD in Singapore. The firms' perception of ICT impact on real estate space needs was asked in the survey, and the variations in their responses were empirically tested with respect to factors like business types, firms' attitude towards ICT use, and their ICT strategies. Two different statistical tests are used in the tests, which include a non-parametric chi-square analysis and a logistic regression model. The chi-square analysis examines different treatment effects of sample firms on the response variables. The logistic regression model jointly tests relationships between the respondent firms' binary choice of ICT impact on office demand and firm business types and views towards ICT and NWPs. Findings - Based on a mailed questionnaire survey conducted on office occupiers in CBD of Singapore, 79 percent of the respondent firms felt that there is no negative impact of an increase use of ICT on the office space; 63 percent of the respondent firms, however, agree that ICT-enabled changes to working practices were more important in affecting real estate space changes of firms. In the logistic regressions, the results showed that four variables that represent firm characteristics and their attitude towards ICT use were significant in explaining the variations in the firms' perception of no significant impact of ICT use on office space demand. Market rent factor was found to have no influence on the perception of a negative ICT-office space relationship by the sample firms. Originality/value - Impact of ICT use on firms' office space needs have not been as pervasive as expected in office markets. There are frictions and resistance by firms and their employees against the adoption of ICT in the office place in many countries. The study based on a random sample of office occupiers in Singapore's CBD and fringe submarkets supports the observation. Only 21 percent of the respondents felt that they can reduce office space with more ICT use. However, more sample firms (63 percent) felt that ICT will enable flexible workflows, which in turn will change the way corporate real estate strategies are designed. Firm characteristics and their attitude towards ICT are factors in determining firms' perception towards ICT use in offices.

Notes: This paper recasts the land development problems of Williams (1991) and Quigg (1993) by explicitly dealing with the effects of scale elasticity of unit rental and unit construction cost in a real estate project. Two different diseconomies of scale constraints are imposed on the rental and cost variables. We assume a concave function for the rental variable with respect to the scale of development. Whereas, on the cost side, the diseconomies of scale effect of the variable component of the construction cost is incorporated via a elasticity of scale factor that is larger than unity. The comparative statics simulated positive relationships between the premium that keeps the option of waiting to develop alive and the volatilities of the unit rental and unit construction cost. It was also found that the cost elasticity of scale and the financing cost are factors that increase the premium of the waiting option, whereas, the rental yield factor reduces the incentive of waiting. A high rental yield tends to expedite a development project because the opportunity cost of not developing the land is high. In the case analysis involving a vacant land of 8,000 square meters at Spitafield, East London, a unit rental of £267.2 per square meter (psm) is obtained, which would breakeven a cash flows of the project when the traditional "invest now or never" assumption is made. Compared with the optimal unit rental of £677.0 psm estimated by the real option model, the traditional DCF results tend to accept the feasibility of the real estate project too early and at too low a cut-off rental.