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  • 1
    Call number: 19/M 12.0300
    Description / Table of Contents: Contents: Preface. Contributing authors. Part I METHODOLOGY. 1 Introduction. 1.1 What is a trend? 1.2 Why analyse trends? 1.3 Some simple examples. 1.4 Considerations and Difficulties. 1.5 Scope of the book. 1.6 Further reading. References. 2 Exploratory analysis. 2.1 Data visualisation. 2.2 Simple smoothing. 2.3 Linear filters. 2.4 Classical test procedures. 2.5 Concluding comments. References. 3 Parametric modelling - deterministic trends. 3.1 The Linear trend. 3.2 Multiple regression techniques. 3.3 Violations of assumptions. 3.4 Nonlinear trends. 3.5 Generalized linear models. 3.6 Inference with small samples. References. 4 Nonparametric trend estimation. 4.1 An introduction to nonparametric regression. 4.2 Multiple covariates. 4.3 Other nonparametric estimation techniques. 4.4 Parametric or nonparametric? References. 5 Stochastic trends. 5.1 Stationary time series models and their properties. 5.2 Trend removal via differencing. 5.3 Long memory models. 5.4 Models for irregularly spaced series. 5.5 State space and structural models. 5.6 Nonlinear models. References. 6 Other issues. 6.1 Multisite data. 6.2 Multivariate series. 6.3 Point process data. 6.4 Trends in extremes. 6.5 Censored data. References. Part II CASE STUDIES. 7 Additive models for sulphur dioxide pollution in Europe ( Marco Giannitrapani, Adrian Bowman, E. Marian Scott and Ron Smith ) 7.1 Introduction. 7.2 Additive models with correlated errors. 7.3 Models for the SO 2 data. 7.4 Conclusions. References. 8 Rainfall trends in southwest Western Australia ( Richard E. Chandler, Bryson C. Bates and Stephen P. Charles ). 8.1 Motivation. 8.2 The study region. 8.3 Data used in the study. 8.4 Modelling methodology. 8.5 Results. 8.6 Summary and conclusions. References. 9 Estimation of Common tends for tropical index series ( Alain F. Zuur, Elena N. Ieno, Christina Mazziotti, Giuseppe Montanari, Attilio Rinaldi and Carla Rita Ferrari ). 9.1 Introduction. 9.2 Data exploration. 9.3 Common trends and additive modelling. 9.4 Dynamic factor analysis to estimate common trends. 9.5 Discussion. Acknowledgement. References. 10 A Space-time study on forest health ( Thomas Kneib and Ludwig Fahrmeir ). 10.1 Forest health: survey and data. 10.2 Regression models for longitudinal data with ordinal responses. 10.3 Spatiotemporal models. 10.4 Spatiotemporal modelling and analysis of forest health data. Acknowledgements. References. Index.
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: xiv, 368 p. , Ill , 24 cm
    ISBN: 9780470015438 , 0-470-01543-8
    Series Statement: Statistics in practice 90
    Classification:
    Mathematics
    Location: Reading room
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2023-03-27
    Description: These data list the fish counts and densities observed using time-lapse cameras at the two DELOS observatory platforms, located at 1400 m water depth on the Angolan continental margin between February 2009 and July 2016. Timelapse photographs were captured from both the "Near Field" (NF; 7.90°S, 12.14°E) and "Far Field" (FF; 7.95°S, 12.28°E) DELOS observatories using a Kongsberg OE14-208 5.1 megapixel digital camera and a Kongsberg OE11-242 flash. Where appropriate: Fish counts are listed as no. individuals observed per photograph. Fish densities are listed as no. individuals observed per photograph, per calendar month, and multiplied by 1000. The DELOS platforms (DELOS A and DELOS B) are under Angolan jurisdiction and all activities must abide by Angolan law. As such, any person intending to publish DELOS data in any form is required to obtain prior permission from the National Concessionaire (Sonangol). Permission can be requested via Robert O'Brien at BP UK (Robert.OBrien@uk.bp.com) or the DELOS PI Dr. David Bailey (David.Bailey@glasgow.ac.uk). This process is not intended as a deterrent and applications to use DELOS data are welcomed. Participating Institutions: BP Exploration, BP Angola, University of Aberdeen, MBARI, National Oceanography Centre, INIP - Angola Instituto Nacional de Investigação Pesqueira (Angolan National Institute of Fisheries), Texas A&M University, Glasgow University
    Keywords: benthic observatory; Deep-ocean Environmental Long-term Observatory System; Deep sea; DELOS; Time series
    Type: Dataset
    Format: application/zip, 3 datasets
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2023-11-08
    Keywords: benthic observatory; Date; Date/Time local; Day of the year; Days, cumulated; Deep-ocean Environmental Long-term Observatory System; Deep sea; DELOS; DELOS_B; Fish; Image number/name; Monitoring station; MONS; South Atlantic Ocean; Time series
    Type: Dataset
    Format: text/tab-separated-values, 35514 data points
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2023-11-03
    Keywords: Area/locality; benthic observatory; Bythitidae; DATE/TIME; Deep-ocean Environmental Long-term Observatory System; Deep sea; DELOS; DELOS_A; DELOS_B; Event label; Fish indeterminata; Halosauridae; Ipnopidae; Liparidae; Macrouridae; Monitoring station; MONS; Month; Moridae; Ophidiidae; Rajidae; Sample ID; South Atlantic Ocean; Squalidae; Synaphobranchidae; Time series; Type; Year of imagery; Zoarcidae
    Type: Dataset
    Format: text/tab-separated-values, 3080 data points
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2023-11-08
    Keywords: benthic observatory; Date; Date/Time local; Day of the year; Days, cumulated; Deep-ocean Environmental Long-term Observatory System; Deep sea; DELOS; DELOS_A; Fish; Image number/name; Monitoring station; MONS; South Atlantic Ocean; Time series
    Type: Dataset
    Format: text/tab-separated-values, 40698 data points
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2020-09-24
    Description: Radiocarbon (14C) ages cannot provide absolutely dated chronologies for archaeological or paleoenvironmental studies directly but must be converted to calendar age equivalents using a calibration curve compensating for fluctuations in atmospheric 14C concentration. Although calibration curves are constructed from independently dated archives, they invariably require revision as new data become available and our understanding of the Earth system improves. In this volume the international 14C calibration curves for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as for the ocean surface layer, have been updated to include a wealth of new data and extended to 55,000 cal BP. Based on tree rings, IntCal20 now extends as a fully atmospheric record to ca. 13,900 cal BP. For the older part of the timescale, IntCal20 comprises statistically integrated evidence from floating tree-ring chronologies, lacustrine and marine sediments, speleothems, and corals. We utilized improved evaluation of the timescales and location variable 14C offsets from the atmosphere (reservoir age, dead carbon fraction) for each dataset. New statistical methods have refined the structure of the calibration curves while maintaining a robust treatment of uncertainties in the 14C ages, the calendar ages and other corrections. The inclusion of modeled marine reservoir ages derived from a three-dimensional ocean circulation model has allowed us to apply more appropriate reservoir corrections to the marine 14C data rather than the previous use of constant regional offsets from the atmosphere. Here we provide an overview of the new and revised datasets and the associated methods used for the construction of the IntCal20 curve and explore potential regional offsets for tree-ring data. We discuss the main differences with respect to the previous calibration curve, IntCal13, and some of the implications for archaeology and geosciences ranging from the recent past to the time of the extinction of the Neanderthals.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © Arizona Board of Regents on behalf of the University of Arizona, 2009. This article is posted here by permission of Dept. of Geosciences, University of Arizona for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Radiocarbon 51 (2009): 1111-1150.
    Description: The IntCal04 and Marine04 radiocarbon calibration curves have been updated from 12 cal kBP (cal kBP is here defined as thousands of calibrated years before AD 1950), and extended to 50 cal kBP, utilizing newly available data sets that meet the IntCal Working Group criteria for pristine corals and other carbonates and for quantification of uncertainty in both the 14C and calendar timescales as established in 2002. No change was made to the curves from 0–12 cal kBP. The curves were constructed using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) implementation of the random walk model used for IntCal04 and Marine04. The new curves were ratified at the 20th International Radiocarbon Conference in June 2009 and are available in the Supplemental Material at www.radiocarbon.org.
    Description: We would like to acknowledge support for this project from the UK Natural Environment Research Council NE/E018807/1 and IGBP PAGES (Past Global Changes).
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2021-01-27
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Reimer, P. J., Austin, W. E. N., Bard, E., Bayliss, A., Blackwell, P. G., Ramsey, C. B., Butzin, M., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Friedrich, M., Grootes, P. M., Guilderson, T. P., Hajdas, I., Heaton, T. J., Hogg, A. G., Hughen, K. A., Kromer, B., Manning, S. W., Muscheler, R., Palmer, J. G., Pearson, C., van der Plicht, J., Reimer, R. W., Richards, D. A., Scott, E. M., Southon, J. R., Turney, C. S. M., Wacker, L., Adolphi, F., Buentgen, U., Capano, M., Fahrni, S. M., Fogtmann-Schulz, A., Friedrich, R., Koehler, P., Kudsk, S., Miyake, F., Olsen, J., Reinig, F., Sakamoto, M., Sookdeo, A., & Talamo, S. The Intcal20 Northern Hemisphere radiocarbon age calibration curve (0-55 cal kBP). Radiocarbon, 62(4), (2020): 725-757, doi:10.1017/RDC.2020.41.
    Description: Radiocarbon (14C) ages cannot provide absolutely dated chronologies for archaeological or paleoenvironmental studies directly but must be converted to calendar age equivalents using a calibration curve compensating for fluctuations in atmospheric 14C concentration. Although calibration curves are constructed from independently dated archives, they invariably require revision as new data become available and our understanding of the Earth system improves. In this volume the international 14C calibration curves for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as for the ocean surface layer, have been updated to include a wealth of new data and extended to 55,000 cal BP. Based on tree rings, IntCal20 now extends as a fully atmospheric record to ca. 13,900 cal BP. For the older part of the timescale, IntCal20 comprises statistically integrated evidence from floating tree-ring chronologies, lacustrine and marine sediments, speleothems, and corals. We utilized improved evaluation of the timescales and location variable 14C offsets from the atmosphere (reservoir age, dead carbon fraction) for each dataset. New statistical methods have refined the structure of the calibration curves while maintaining a robust treatment of uncertainties in the 14C ages, the calendar ages and other corrections. The inclusion of modeled marine reservoir ages derived from a three-dimensional ocean circulation model has allowed us to apply more appropriate reservoir corrections to the marine 14C data rather than the previous use of constant regional offsets from the atmosphere. Here we provide an overview of the new and revised datasets and the associated methods used for the construction of the IntCal20 curve and explore potential regional offsets for tree-ring data. We discuss the main differences with respect to the previous calibration curve, IntCal13, and some of the implications for archaeology and geosciences ranging from the recent past to the time of the extinction of the Neanderthals.
    Description: We would like to thank the National Natural Science Foundation of China grants NSFC 41888101 and NSFC 41731174, the 111 program of China (D19002), U.S. NSF Grant 1702816, and the Malcolm H. Wiener Foundation for support for research that contributed to the IntCal20 curve. The work on the Swiss and German YD trees was funded by the German Science foundation and the Swiss National Foundation (grant number: 200021L_157187). The operation in Aix-en-Provence is funded by the EQUIPEX ASTER-CEREGE, the Collège de France and the ANR project CARBOTRYDH (to EB). The work on the correlation of tree ring 14C with ice core 10Be was partially supported by the Swedish Research Council and the Knut and Alice Wallenberg foundation. M. Butzin was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) as Research for Sustainable Development (FONA; http://www.fona.de) through the PalMod project (grant number: 01LP1505B). S. Talamo and M. Friedrich are funded by the European Research Council under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (grant agreement No. 803147-RESOLUTION, awarded to ST). CA. Turney would like to acknowledge support of the Australian Research Council (FL100100195 and DP170104665). P. Reimer and W. Austin acknowledge the support of the UKRI Natural Environment Research Council (Grant NE/M004619/1). T.J. Heaton is supported by a Leverhulme Trust Fellowship RF-2019-140\9. Other datasets and the IntCal20 database were created without external support through internal funding by the respective laboratories. We also would like to thank various institutions that provided funding or facilities for meetings.
    Keywords: calibration curve ; radiocarbon ; IntCal20
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Reimer, P. J., Austin, W. E. N., Bard, E., Bayliss, A., Blackwell, P. G., Ramsey, C. B., Butzin, M., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Friedrich, M., Grootes, P. M., Guilderson, T. P., Hajdas, I., Heaton, T. J., Hogg, A. G., Hughen, K. A., Kromer, B., Manning, S. W., Muscheler, R., Palmer, J. G., Pearson, C., van der Plicht, J., Reimer, R. W., Richards, D. A., Scott, E. M., Southon, J. R., Turney, C. S. M., Wacker, L., Adolphi, F., Buentgen, U., Capano, M., Fahrni, S. M., Fogtmann-Schulz, A., Friedrich, R., Koehler, P., Kudsk, S., Miyake, F., Olsen, J., Reinig, F., Sakamoto, M., Sookdeo, A., & Talamo, S. The Intcal20 Northern Hemisphere radiocarbon age calibration curve (0-55 cal kBP). Radiocarbon, 62(4), (2020): 725-757, doi:10.1017/RDC.2020.41.
    Description: Radiocarbon (14C) ages cannot provide absolutely dated chronologies for archaeological or paleoenvironmental studies directly but must be converted to calendar age equivalents using a calibration curve compensating for fluctuations in atmospheric 14C concentration. Although calibration curves are constructed from independently dated archives, they invariably require revision as new data become available and our understanding of the Earth system improves. In this volume the international 14C calibration curves for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as for the ocean surface layer, have been updated to include a wealth of new data and extended to 55,000 cal BP. Based on tree rings, IntCal20 now extends as a fully atmospheric record to ca. 13,900 cal BP. For the older part of the timescale, IntCal20 comprises statistically integrated evidence from floating tree-ring chronologies, lacustrine and marine sediments, speleothems, and corals. We utilized improved evaluation of the timescales and location variable 14C offsets from the atmosphere (reservoir age, dead carbon fraction) for each dataset. New statistical methods have refined the structure of the calibration curves while maintaining a robust treatment of uncertainties in the 14C ages, the calendar ages and other corrections. The inclusion of modeled marine reservoir ages derived from a three-dimensional ocean circulation model has allowed us to apply more appropriate reservoir corrections to the marine 14C data rather than the previous use of constant regional offsets from the atmosphere. Here we provide an overview of the new and revised datasets and the associated methods used for the construction of the IntCal20 curve and explore potential regional offsets for tree-ring data. We discuss the main differences with respect to the previous calibration curve, IntCal13, and some of the implications for archaeology and geosciences ranging from the recent past to the time of the extinction of the Neanderthals.
    Description: We would like to thank the National Natural Science Foundation of China grants NSFC 41888101 and NSFC 41731174, the 111 program of China (D19002), U.S. NSF Grant 1702816, and the Malcolm H. Wiener Foundation for support for research that contributed to the IntCal20 curve. The work on the Swiss and German YD trees was funded by the German Science foundation and the Swiss National Foundation (grant number: 200021L_157187). The operation in Aix-en-Provence is funded by the EQUIPEX ASTER-CEREGE, the Collège de France and the ANR project CARBOTRYDH (to EB). The work on the correlation of tree ring 14C with ice core 10Be was partially supported by the Swedish Research Council and the Knut and Alice Wallenberg foundation. M. Butzin was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) as Research for Sustainable Development (FONA; http://www.fona.de) through the PalMod project (grant number: 01LP1505B). S. Talamo and M. Friedrich are funded by the European Research Council under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (grant agreement No. 803147-RESOLUTION, awarded to ST). CA. Turney would like to acknowledge support of the Australian Research Council (FL100100195 and DP170104665). P. Reimer and W. Austin acknowledge the support of the UKRI Natural Environment Research Council (Grant NE/M004619/1). T.J. Heaton is supported by a Leverhulme Trust Fellowship RF-2019-140\9. Other datasets and the IntCal20 database were created without external support through internal funding by the respective laboratories. We also would like to thank various institutions that provided funding or facilities for meetings.
    Keywords: Calibration curve ; Radiocarbon ; IntCal20
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 10
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