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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2023-07-21
    Description: Predicting rainfall-induced landslides hinges on the quality of the rainfall product. Satellite rainfall estimates or rainfall reanalyses aid in studying landslide occurrences especially in ungauged areas, or in the absence of ground-based rainfall radars. Quality of these rainfall estimates is critical; hence, they are commonly crosschecked with their ground-based counterparts. Beyond their temporal precision compared to ground-based observations, we investigate whether these rainfall estimates are adequate for hindcasting landslides, which particularly requires accurate representation of spatial variability of rainfall. We developed a logistic regression model to hindcast rainfall-induced landslides in two sites in Japan. The model contains only a few topographic and geologic predictors to leave room for different rainfall products to improve the model as additional predictors. By changing the input rainfall product, we compared GPM IMERG and ERA5 rainfall estimates with ground radar–based rainfall data. Our findings emphasize that there is a lot of room for improvement of spatiotemporal prediction of landslides, as shown by a strong performance increase of the models with the benchmark radar data attaining 95% diagnostic performance accuracy. Yet, this improvement is not met by global rainfall products which still face challenges in reliably capturing spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation events.
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100006086
    Description: Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001655
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; GPM IMERG ; ERA5 ; Landslide susceptibility ; Weather radar ; Japan
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2015-05-23
    Description: Mass wasting is an important process for denuding hillslopes and lowering ridge crests in active mountain belts such as the Himalaya-Karakoram ranges (HKR). Such a high-relief landscape is likely to be at its mechanical threshold, maintained by competing rapid rock uplift, river incision, and pervasive slope failure. We introduce excess topography, Z E , for quantifying potentially unstable rock-mass volumes inclined at angles greater than a specified threshold angle. We find that Z E peaks along major fluvial and glacial inner gorges, which is also where the majority of 492 large (〉0.1 km 2 ) rock-slope failures occur in the Himalaya’s largest cluster of documented Pleistocene to Holocene bedrock landslides. Our data reveal that bedrock landslides in the HKR chiefly detached from near or below the median elevation, whereas glaciers and rock glaciers occupy higher-elevation bands almost exclusively. Less than 10% of the area of the HKR is upslope of glaciers, such that possible censoring of evidence of large bedrock landslides above the permanent snow line barely affects this finding. Bedrock landslides appear to preferentially undermine topographic relief in response to fluvial and glacial incision along inner gorges, unless more frequent and smaller undetected failures, or rigorous (peri-)glacial erosion, compensate for this role at higher elevation. Either way, the distinct patterns of excess topography and large bedrock landsliding in the HKR juxtapose two stacked domains of landslide and (peri-)glacial erosion that may respond to different time scales of perturbation. Our findings call for more detailed analysis of vertical erosional domains and their geomorphic coupling in active mountain belts.
    Print ISSN: 0091-7613
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-2682
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2014-07-29
    Description: Meltwater delivered to the bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet is a driver of variable ice-motion through changes in effective pressure and enhanced basal lubrication. Ice surface velocities have been shown to respond rapidly both to meltwater production at the surface and to drainage of supraglacial lakes, suggesting efficient transfer of meltwater from the supraglacial to subglacial hydrological systems. Although considerable effort is currently being directed towards improved modelling of the controlling surface and basal processes, modelling the temporal and spatial evolution of the transfer of melt to the bed has received less attention. Here we present the results of spatially-distributed modelling for prediction of moulins and lake drainages on the Leverett Glacier in south-west Greenland. The model is run for the 2009 and 2010 ablation seasons, and for future increased melt scenarios. The temporal and spatial patterns of modelled lake drainages are qualitatively comparable with those seen from analyses of satellite imagery. The modelled timings and locations of delivery of meltwater to the bed match well with observed temporal and spatial patterns of ice surface speed ups. This is particularly true for the lower catchment (〈 1000 m a.s.l.) where both the model and observations indicate that the development of moulins is the main mechanism for the transfer of surface meltwater to the bed. At higher elevations (e.g. 1250–1500 m a.s.l.) the development and drainage of supraglacial lakes becomes increasingly important. At these higher elevations, the delay between modelled melt generation and subsequent delivery of melt to the bed matches the observed delay between the peak air temperatures and subsequent velocity speed ups. Although both moulins and lake drainages are predicted to increase in number for future warmer climate scenarios, the lake drainages play an increasingly important role in both expanding the area over which melt accesses the bed and in enabling a greater proportion of surface melt to reach the bed.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0432
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0440
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2015-01-22
    Description: Meltwater delivered to the bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet is a driver of variable ice-motion through changes in effective pressure and enhanced basal lubrication. Ice surface velocities have been shown to respond rapidly both to meltwater production at the surface and to drainage of supraglacial lakes, suggesting efficient transfer of meltwater from the supraglacial to subglacial hydrological systems. Although considerable effort is currently being directed towards improved modelling of the controlling surface and basal processes, modelling the temporal and spatial evolution of the transfer of melt to the bed has received less attention. Here we present the results of spatially distributed modelling for prediction of moulins and lake drainages on the Leverett Glacier in Southwest Greenland. The model is run for the 2009 and 2010 ablation seasons, and for future increased melt scenarios. The temporal pattern of modelled lake drainages are qualitatively comparable with those documented from analyses of repeat satellite imagery. The modelled timings and locations of delivery of meltwater to the bed also match well with observed temporal and spatial patterns of ice surface speed-ups. This is particularly true for the lower catchment (
    Print ISSN: 1994-0416
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0424
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2015-05-19
    Description: Globalisation and interregional exchange of people, goods, and services has boosted the importance of and reliance on all kinds of transport networks. The linear structure of road networks is especially sensitive to natural hazards. In southern Norway, steep topography and extreme weather events promote frequent traffic disruption caused by debris flows. Topographic susceptibility and trigger frequency maps serve as input into a hazard appraisal at the scale of first-order catchments to quantify the impact of debris flows on the road network in terms of a failure likelihood of each link connecting two network vertices, e.g. road junctions. We compute total additional traffic loads as a function of traffic volume and excess distance, i.e. the extra length of an alternative path connecting two previously disrupted network vertices using a shortest-path algorithm. Our risk metric of link failure is the total additional annual traffic load, expressed as vehicle kilometres, because of debris-flow-related road closures. We present two scenarios demonstrating the impact of debris flows on the road network and quantify the associated path-failure likelihood between major cities in southern Norway. The scenarios indicate that major routes crossing the central and north-western part of the study area are associated with high link-failure risk. Yet options for detours on major routes are manifold and incur only little additional costs provided that drivers are sufficiently well informed about road closures. Our risk estimates may be of importance to road network managers and transport companies relying on speedy delivery of services and goods.
    Print ISSN: 1561-8633
    Electronic ISSN: 1684-9981
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2014-10-30
    Description: Globalization and interregional exchange of people, goods, and services has boosted the importance of and reliance on all kinds of transport networks. The linear structure of road networks is especially sensitive to natural hazards. In southern Norway, steep topography and extreme weather events promote frequent traffic disruption caused by debris flows. Topographic susceptibility and trigger frequency maps serve as input into a hazard appraisal at the scale of first-order catchments to quantify the impact of debris flows on the road network in terms of a failure likelihood of each link connecting two network vertices, e.g., road junctions. We compute total additional traffic loads as a function of traffic volume and excess distance, i.e. the extra length of an alternative path connecting two previously disrupted network vertices using a shortest-path algorithm. Our risk metric of link failure is the total additional annual traffic load expressed as vehicle kilometers because of debris-flow related road closures. We present two scenarios demonstrating the impact of debris flows on the road network, and quantify the associated path failure likelihood between major cities in southern Norway. The scenarios indicate that major routes crossing the central and northwestern part of the study area are associated with high link failure risk. Yet options for detours on major routes are manifold, and incur only little additional costs provided that drivers are sufficiently well informed about road closures. Our risk estimates may be of importance to road network managers and transport companies relying of speedy delivery of services and goods.
    Electronic ISSN: 2195-9269
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2009-08-01
    Print ISSN: 0031-0182
    Electronic ISSN: 1872-616X
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Elsevier
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2013-08-16
    Description: TopoToolbox is a MATLAB software for the analysis of digital elevation models (DEMs). With the release of version 2, the software adopts an Object-Oriented Programming (OOP) approach to work with gridded DEMs, and derived data such as flow directions and stream networks. The introduction of a novel technique to store flow directions as topologically ordered vectors of indices allows for easy coding, increased processing speed and reduction in memory overhead. Graphical user interfaces enable visual exploration and interaction with DEMs and derivatives and provide access to tools targeted at fluvial and tectonic geomorphologists. With this new release, TopoToolbox has become a more memory efficient, faster and more user-friendly tool for digital terrain analysis that can be used as a framework for building hydrological and geomorphological models in MATLAB.
    Electronic ISSN: 2196-6338
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2014-01-15
    Description: TopoToolbox is a MATLAB program for the analysis of digital elevation models (DEMs). With the release of version 2, the software adopts an object-oriented programming (OOP) approach to work with gridded DEMs and derived data such as flow directions and stream networks. The introduction of a novel technique to store flow directions as topologically ordered vectors of indices enables calculation of flow-related attributes such as flow accumulation ∼20 times faster than conventional algorithms while at the same time reducing memory overhead to 33% of that required by the previous version. Graphical user interfaces (GUIs) enable visual exploration and interaction with DEMs and derivatives and provide access to tools targeted at fluvial and tectonic geomorphologists. With its new release, TopoToolbox has become a more memory-efficient and faster tool for basic and advanced digital terrain analysis that can be used as a framework for building hydrological and geomorphological models in MATLAB.
    Print ISSN: 2196-6311
    Electronic ISSN: 2196-632X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2021-06-19
    Description: Predicting rainfall-induced landslides hinges on the quality of the rainfall product. Satellite rainfall estimates or rainfall reanalyses aid in studying landslide occurrences especially in ungauged areas, or in the absence of ground-based rainfall radars. Quality of these rainfall estimates is critical; hence, they are commonly crosschecked with their ground-based counterparts. Beyond their temporal precision compared to ground-based observations, we investigate whether these rainfall estimates are adequate for hindcasting landslides, which particularly requires accurate representation of spatial variability of rainfall. We developed a logistic regression model to hindcast rainfall-induced landslides in two sites in Japan. The model contains only a few topographic and geologic predictors to leave room for different rainfall products to improve the model as additional predictors. By changing the input rainfall product, we compared GPM IMERG and ERA5 rainfall estimates with ground radar–based rainfall data. Our findings emphasize that there is a lot of room for improvement of spatiotemporal prediction of landslides, as shown by a strong performance increase of the models with the benchmark radar data attaining 95% diagnostic performance accuracy. Yet, this improvement is not met by global rainfall products which still face challenges in reliably capturing spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation events.
    Print ISSN: 1612-510X
    Electronic ISSN: 1612-5118
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geosciences
    Published by Springer
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