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  • 1
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    Towards kilometer-scale ocean-atmosphere-wave coupled forecast: a case study on a Mediterranean heavy precipitation event (2021)
    European Geosciences Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Sauvage, C., Brossier, C. L., & Bouin, M.-N. Towards kilometer-scale ocean-atmosphere-wave coupled forecast: a case study on a Mediterranean heavy precipitation event. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 21(15), (2021): 11857–11887, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11857-2021.
    Description: The western Mediterranean Sea area is frequently affected in autumn by heavy precipitation events (HPEs). These severe meteorological episodes, characterized by strong offshore low-level winds and heavy rain in a short period of time, can lead to severe flooding and wave-submersion events. This study aims to progress towards an integrated short-range forecast system via coupled modeling for a better representation of the processes at the air–sea interface. In order to identify and quantify the coupling impacts, coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave simulations were performed for a HPE that occurred between 12 and 14 October 2016 in the south of France. The experiment using the coupled AROME-NEMO-WaveWatchIII system was notably compared to atmosphere-only, coupled atmosphere–wave and ocean–atmosphere simulations. The results showed that the HPE fine-scale forecast is sensitive to both couplings: the interactive coupling with the ocean leads to significant changes in the heat and moisture supply of the HPE that intensify the convective systems, while coupling with a wave model mainly leads to changes in the low-level dynamics, affecting the location of the convergence that triggers convection over the sea. Result analysis of this first case study with the AROME-NEMO-WaveWatchIII system does not clearly show major changes in the forecasts with coupling and highlights some attention points to follow (ocean initialization notably). Nonetheless, it illustrates the higher realism and potential benefits of kilometer-scale coupled numerical weather prediction systems, in particular in the case of severe weather events over the sea and/or in coastal areas, and shows their affordability to confidently progress towards operational coupled forecasts.
    Description: This research has been supported by the Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (grant no. MISTRALS/HyMeX/ST-TIP) and the Région Occitanie Pyrénées-Méditerranée (grant no. n∘LS 149109).
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 2
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    Impact of the representation of the freshwater river input in the Western Mediterranean Sea (2018)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-11-01
    Print ISSN: 1463-5003
    Electronic ISSN: 1463-5011
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Elsevier
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  • 3
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    Characterization of the air-sea exchanges mechanisms during a Mediterranean heavy precipitation event using realistic sea state modelling (2019)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-09-02
    Description: This study investigates the mechanisms acting at the air-sea interface during the heavy precipitation event that occurred between the 12–14 October 2016 over the north-western Mediterranean area, and that led to large amounts of rainfall (up to 300 mm in 24 h) over the Hérault region (South of France). The study case was characterized by a very strong easterly to southeasterly wind at low level (〉 20 m/s) generating a very rough sea (significant wave height up to 6 m) along the French Riviera and the Gulf of Lion. In order to investigate the role of the waves on those air-sea exchanges during such extreme events a set of numerical experiments was designed using the Météo-France kilometer-scale AROME-France Numerical Weather Prediction model – including the WASP sea surface turbulent fluxes parametrization – and the wave model WaveWatchIII. Results from those sensitivity experiments in the forced or coupled modes showed that taking the waves generated by the model into account increases the surface roughness. Thus the easterly low-level atmospheric flow was slowed-down and the turbulent fluxes upstream of the precipitating system were significantly modified. This modified the forecast of the heaviest precipitation, notably in term of location.
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7375
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 4
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    Characterization of the air–sea exchange mechanisms during a Mediterranean heavy precipitation event using realistic sea state modelling (2020)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-11
    Description: This study investigates the mechanisms acting at the air–sea interface during a heavy precipitation event that occurred between 12 and 14 October 2016 over the north-western Mediterranean area and led to large amounts of rainfall (up to 300 mm in 24 h) over the Hérault region (southern France). The study case was characterized by a very strong (〉20 m s−1) easterly to south-easterly wind at low level that generated very rough seas (significant wave height of up to 6 m) along the French Riviera and the Gulf of Lion. In order to investigate the role of the waves on air–sea exchanges during such extreme events, a set of numerical experiments was designed using the Météo-France kilometre-scale AROME-France numerical weather prediction model – including the WASP (Wave-Age-dependant Stress Parametrization) sea surface turbulent flux parametrization – and the WaveWatch III wave model. Results from these sensitivity experiments in the forced or coupled modes showed that taking the waves generated by the model into account increases the surface roughness. Thus, the increase in the momentum flux induces a slowdown of the easterly low-level atmospheric flow and a displacement of the convergence line at sea. Despite strong winds and a young sea below the easterly flow, the turbulent heat fluxes upstream of the precipitating system are not significantly modified. The forecast of the heaviest precipitation is finally modified when the sea state is taken into account; notably, in terms of location, this modification is slightly larger in the forced mode than in the coupled mode, as the coupling interactively balances the wind sea, the stress and the wind.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7324
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 5
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    Towards kilometer-scale ocean–atmosphere–wave coupled forecast: a case study on a Mediterranean heavy precipitation event (2021)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-08-09
    Description: The western Mediterranean Sea area is frequently affected in autumn by heavy precipitation events (HPEs). These severe meteorological episodes, characterized by strong offshore low-level winds and heavy rain in a short period of time, can lead to severe flooding and wave-submersion events. This study aims to progress towards an integrated short-range forecast system via coupled modeling for a better representation of the processes at the air–sea interface. In order to identify and quantify the coupling impacts, coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave simulations were performed for a HPE that occurred between 12 and 14 October 2016 in the south of France. The experiment using the coupled AROME-NEMO-WaveWatchIII system was notably compared to atmosphere-only, coupled atmosphere–wave and ocean–atmosphere simulations. The results showed that the HPE fine-scale forecast is sensitive to both couplings: the interactive coupling with the ocean leads to significant changes in the heat and moisture supply of the HPE that intensify the convective systems, while coupling with a wave model mainly leads to changes in the low-level dynamics, affecting the location of the convergence that triggers convection over the sea. Result analysis of this first case study with the AROME-NEMO-WaveWatchIII system does not clearly show major changes in the forecasts with coupling and highlights some attention points to follow (ocean initialization notably). Nonetheless, it illustrates the higher realism and potential benefits of kilometer-scale coupled numerical weather prediction systems, in particular in the case of severe weather events over the sea and/or in coastal areas, and shows their affordability to confidently progress towards operational coupled forecasts.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7324
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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