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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2015-10-25
    Description: We investigate the predictability of the thermally-driven rotating annulus, a laboratory experiment used to study the dynamics of planetary atmospheres under controlled and reproducible conditions. Our approach is to apply the same principles used to predict the atmosphere in operational weather forecasting. We build a forecasting system for the annulus using the analysis correction method for data assimilation, the breeding method for ensemble generation, and the Met Office / Oxford Rotating Annulus Laboratory Simulation as the forecast model. The system forecasts the annulus in steady 2S, amplitude vacillating 3AV, and structurally vacillating 3SV flow regimes, verifying the forecasts against laboratory data. The results show that a range of flow regimes from this experiment can be accurately predicted. Forecasts in the steady wave flow regime perform well, and are predictable until the end of the available data. Forecasts in the amplitude and structural vacillation flow regimes lose quality and skill by a combination of wave drift and wavenumber transition. Amplitude vacillation is predictable up to several hundred seconds ahead, and structural vacillation is predictable for a few hundred seconds. The wavenumber transitions are partly explained by hysteresis in the rotating annulus experiment and model.
    Print ISSN: 0035-9009
    Electronic ISSN: 1477-870X
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by Wiley
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2016-09-10
    Description: Scatter plots of Ertel potential vorticity, Q , versus Bernoulli streamfunction, B , on potential-temperature surfaces, θ , are investigated for Mars using the global Mars Analysis Correction Data Assimilation (MACDA) reanalysis, which spans Mars Year (MY) 24.39 to 27.24. In mid-latitudes, Mars exhibits monotonic, function-like Q ( B ) correlations on θ surfaces similar to those observed for Earth. We quantify this with linear regressions of Q versus B over the vertical range θ  = 400 to 900 K (~30 to 60 km). In autumn, winter and spring, in both hemispheres, the nondimensionalized correlation generally lies between zero and unity and gradually decreases with height, whereas in northern summer, it swings negative. These characteristics match Earth's lower mesosphere ( θ  = 2000 to 3000 K; z  ≈ 48 to 62 k m ) during the same seasons. The exception is southern summer, when the correlation on Mars nearly vanishes. In time series, the transition into and out of northern summer is sinuous and centred just after solar longitude L s  = 90 ∘ , whereas in southern summer it is abrupt and spans ΔL s  ≈ 120 ∘ , which is 1/3 of a Mars year. A striking feature seen on Mars but not on Earth is a large range of Q over the narrow domain of B poleward of each winter polar jet, particularly in the north, which is consistent with the known annular structure of the Martian polar vortex. Froude number calculations suggest the existence of a planetary-scale hydraulic jump associated with the winter polar jet.
    Print ISSN: 0035-9009
    Electronic ISSN: 1477-870X
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by Wiley
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2012-04-15
    Description: A combination of singular systems analysis and analytic phase techniques are used to investigate the possible occurrence in observations of coherent synchronization between quasi-biennial and semi-annual oscillations (QBOs; SAOs) in the stratosphere and troposphere. Time series of zonal mean zonal winds near the Equator are analysed from the ERA-40 and ERA-interim reanalysis datasets over a ∼ 50-year period. In the stratosphere, the QBO is found to synchronize with the SAO almost all the time, but with a frequency ratio that changes erratically between 4:1, 5:1 and 6:1. A similar variable synchronization is also evident in the tropical troposphere between semi-annual and quasi-biennial cycles (known as TBOs). Mean zonal winds from ERA-40 and ERA-interim, and also time series of indices for the Indian and West Pacific monsoons, are commonly found to exhibit synchronization, with SAO/TBO ratios that vary between 4:1 and 7:1. Coherent synchronization between the QBO and tropical TBO does not appear to persist for long intervals, however. This suggests that both the QBO and tropical TBOs may be separately synchronized to SAOs that are themselves enslaved to the seasonal cycle, or to the annual cycle itself. However, the QBO and TBOs are evidently only weakly coupled between themselves and are frequently found to lose mutual coherence when each changes its frequency ratio to its respective SAO. This suggests a need to revise a commonly cited paradigm that advocates the use of stratospheric QBO indices as a predictor for tropospheric phenomena such as monsoons and hurricanes. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society
    Print ISSN: 0035-9009
    Electronic ISSN: 1477-870X
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2011-09-17
    Description: The planetary boundary layer (PBL) represents the part of the atmosphere that is strongly influenced by the presence of the underlying surface and mediates the key interactions between the atmosphere and the surface. On Mars, this represents the lowest 10 km of the atmosphere during the daytime. This portion of the atmosphere is extremely important, both scientifically and operationally, because it is the region within which surface lander spacecraft must operate and also determines exchanges of heat, momentum, dust, water, and other tracers between surface and subsurface reservoirs and the free atmosphere. To date, this region of the atmosphere has been studied directly, by instrumented lander spacecraft, and from orbital remote sensing, though not to the extent that is necessary to fully constrain its character and behavior. Current data strongly suggest that as for the Earth's PBL, classical Monin-Obukhov similarity theory applies reasonably well to the Martian PBL under most conditions, though with some intriguing differences relating to the lower atmospheric density at the Martian surface and the likely greater role of direct radiative heating of the atmosphere within the PBL itself. Most of the modeling techniques used for the PBL on Earth are also being applied to the Martian PBL, including novel uses of very high resolution large eddy simulation methods. We conclude with those aspects of the PBL that require new measurements in order to constrain models and discuss the extent to which anticipated missions to Mars in the near future will fulfill these requirements.
    Print ISSN: 8755-1209
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2012-01-06
    Description: A combination of singular systems analysis and analytic phase techniques are used to investigate the possible occurrence in observations of coherent synchronization between quasi-biennial and semi-annual oscillations (QBOs; SAOs) in the stratosphere and troposphere. Time series of zonal mean zonal winds near the Equator are analysed from the ERA-40 and ERA-interim reanalysis datasets over a ∼ 50-year period. In the stratosphere, the QBO is found to synchronize with the SAO almost all the time, but with a frequency ratio that changes erratically between 4:1, 5:1 and 6:1. A similar variable synchronization is also evident in the tropical troposphere between semi-annual and quasi-biennial cycles (known as TBOs). Mean zonal winds from ERA-40 and ERA-interim, and also time series of indices for the Indian and West Pacific monsoons, are commonly found to exhibit synchronization, with SAO/TBO ratios that vary between 4:1 and 7:1. Coherent synchronization between the QBO and tropical TBO does not appear to persist for long intervals, however. This suggests that both the QBO and tropical TBOs may be separately synchronized to SAOs that are themselves enslaved to the seasonal cycle, or to the annual cycle itself. However, the QBO and TBOs are evidently only weakly coupled between themselves and are frequently found to lose mutual coherence when each changes its frequency ratio to its respective SAO. This suggests a need to revise a commonly cited paradigm that advocates the use of stratospheric QBO indices as a predictor for tropospheric phenomena such as monsoons and hurricanes. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society
    Print ISSN: 0035-9009
    Electronic ISSN: 1477-870X
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by Wiley
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2009-01-17
    Description: 〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Read, Peter L -- England -- Nature. 2009 Jan 15;457(7227):270-1. doi: 10.1038/457270a.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19148088" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Print ISSN: 0028-0836
    Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2008-01-05
    Description: Saturn's poles exhibit an unexpected symmetry in hot, cyclonic polar vortices, despite huge seasonal differences in solar flux. The cores of both vortices are depleted in phosphine gas, probably resulting from subsidence of air into the troposphere. The warm cores are present throughout the upper troposphere and stratosphere at both poles. The thermal structure associated with the marked hexagonal polar jet at 77 degrees N has been observed for the first time. Both the warm cyclonic belt at 79 degrees N and the cold anticyclonic zone at 75 degrees N exhibit the hexagonal structure.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Fletcher, L N -- Irwin, P G J -- Orton, G S -- Teanby, N A -- Achterberg, R K -- Bjoraker, G L -- Read, P L -- Simon-Miller, A A -- Howett, C -- de Kok, R -- Bowles, N -- Calcutt, S B -- Hesman, B -- Flasar, F M -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2008 Jan 4;319(5859):79-81. doi: 10.1126/science.1149514.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Clarendon Laboratory, Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PU, UK. fletcher@atm.ox.ac.uk〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18174438" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2011-05-21
    Description: Saturn's slow seasonal evolution was disrupted in 2010-2011 by the eruption of a bright storm in its northern spring hemisphere. Thermal infrared spectroscopy showed that within a month, the resulting planetary-scale disturbance had generated intense perturbations of atmospheric temperatures, winds, and composition between 20 degrees and 50 degrees N over an entire hemisphere (140,000 kilometers). The tropospheric storm cell produced effects that penetrated hundreds of kilometers into Saturn's stratosphere (to the 1-millibar region). Stratospheric subsidence at the edges of the disturbance produced "beacons" of infrared emission and longitudinal temperature contrasts of 16 kelvin. The disturbance substantially altered atmospheric circulation, transporting material vertically over great distances, modifying stratospheric zonal jets, exciting wave activity and turbulence, and generating a new cold anticyclonic oval in the center of the disturbance at 41 degrees N.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Fletcher, Leigh N -- Hesman, Brigette E -- Irwin, Patrick G J -- Baines, Kevin H -- Momary, Thomas W -- Sanchez-Lavega, Agustin -- Flasar, F Michael -- Read, Peter L -- Orton, Glenn S -- Simon-Miller, Amy -- Hueso, Ricardo -- Bjoraker, Gordon L -- Mamoutkine, Andrei -- del Rio-Gaztelurrutia, Teresa -- Gomez, Jose M -- Buratti, Bonnie -- Clark, Roger N -- Nicholson, Philip D -- Sotin, Christophe -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2011 Jun 17;332(6036):1413-7. doi: 10.1126/science.1204774. Epub 2011 May 19.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, Clarendon Laboratory, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PU, UK. fletcher@atm.ox.ac.uk〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21596955" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2005-05-17
    Description: Temperatures obtained from early Cassini infrared observations of Titan show a stratopause at an altitude of 310 kilometers (and 186 kelvin at 15 degrees S). Stratospheric temperatures are coldest in the winter northern hemisphere, with zonal winds reaching 160 meters per second. The concentrations of several stratospheric organic compounds are enhanced at mid- and high northern latitudes, and the strong zonal winds may inhibit mixing between these latitudes and the rest of Titan. Above the south pole, temperatures in the stratosphere are 4 to 5 kelvin cooler than at the equator. The stratospheric mole fractions of methane and carbon monoxide are (1.6 +/- 0.5) x 10(-2) and (4.5 +/- 1.5) x 10(-5), respectively.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Flasar, F M -- Achterberg, R K -- Conrath, B J -- Gierasch, P J -- Kunde, V G -- Nixon, C A -- Bjoraker, G L -- Jennings, D E -- Romani, P N -- Simon-Miller, A A -- Bezard, B -- Coustenis, A -- Irwin, P G J -- Teanby, N A -- Brasunas, J -- Pearl, J C -- Segura, M E -- Carlson, R C -- Mamoutkine, A -- Schinder, P J -- Barucci, A -- Courtin, R -- Fouchet, T -- Gautier, D -- Lellouch, E -- Marten, A -- Prange, R -- Vinatier, S -- Strobel, D F -- Calcutt, S B -- Read, P L -- Taylor, F W -- Bowles, N -- Samuelson, R E -- Orton, G S -- Spilker, L J -- Owen, T C -- Spencer, J R -- Showalter, M R -- Ferrari, C -- Abbas, M M -- Raulin, F -- Edgington, S -- Ade, P -- Wishnow, E H -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2005 May 13;308(5724):975-8.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15894528" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: Atmosphere ; Carbon Monoxide ; Extraterrestrial Environment ; *Hydrocarbons ; *Methane ; *Nitriles ; *Saturn ; Spacecraft ; Temperature ; Wind
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    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2004-12-25
    Description: Stratospheric temperatures on Saturn imply a strong decay of the equatorial winds with altitude. If the decrease in winds reported from recent Hubble Space Telescope images is not a temporal change, then the features tracked must have been at least 130 kilometers higher than in earlier studies. Saturn's south polar stratosphere is warmer than predicted from simple radiative models. The C/H ratio on Saturn is seven times solar, twice Jupiter's. Saturn's ring temperatures have radial variations down to the smallest scale resolved (100 kilometers). Diurnal surface temperature variations on Phoebe suggest a more porous regolith than on the jovian satellites.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Flasar, F M -- Achterberg, R K -- Conrath, B J -- Pearl, J C -- Bjoraker, G L -- Jennings, D E -- Romani, P N -- Simon-Miller, A A -- Kunde, V G -- Nixon, C A -- Bezard, B -- Orton, G S -- Spilker, L J -- Spencer, J R -- Irwin, P G J -- Teanby, N A -- Owen, T C -- Brasunas, J -- Segura, M E -- Carlson, R C -- Mamoutkine, A -- Gierasch, P J -- Schinder, P J -- Showalter, M R -- Ferrari, C -- Barucci, A -- Courtin, R -- Coustenis, A -- Fouchet, T -- Gautier, D -- Lellouch, E -- Marten, A -- Prange, R -- Strobel, D F -- Calcutt, S B -- Read, P L -- Taylor, F W -- Bowles, N -- Samuelson, R E -- Abbas, M M -- Raulin, F -- Ade, P -- Edgington, S -- Pilorz, S -- Wallis, B -- Wishnow, E H -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2005 Feb 25;307(5713):1247-51. Epub 2004 Dec 23.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 693, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA. f.m.flasar@nasa.gov〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15618486" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: Atmosphere ; Carbon ; Extraterrestrial Environment ; Hydrogen ; Methane ; *Saturn ; Spacecraft ; Spectrum Analysis ; Temperature ; Wind
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
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