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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2012-04-01
    Description: In 2007, the National Weather Service (NWS) began using storm-based warnings (SBWs) rather than countywide warnings. Some analysts have examined the effects of this change, but little empirical research has yet to focus on the public response. Using a random digit dialing sample and a computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) system, data were collected that focused on protective action decision making in counties that were affected by a severe storm or tornado warning. Based on those data, the following paper examines the influence of these new storm-based warnings on protective action decision making by the public. While a significant relationship between being inside the warning polygon and taking protective action was not found, the authors were able to conclude that polygon size is an important factor. Given these mixed results, it is suggested that future work on storm-based warnings focus on the warnings’ dissemination and reception, as well as the optimization of the polygons themselves. It is suggested that the complexities associated with communicating with these risk areas complicate the dissemination process and create difficulties in the public understanding of the warning. The possible need for optimization is reinforced by the significance of the track proximity and polygon-sized variables. In addition, a smaller polygon resulted in protective action, in particular, sheltering. With regard to the preparedness and sociodemographic variables, the study’s results agreed with previous findings on the importance of a family emergency plan. Unlike earlier research this study did not find past experience or education level significant within the regression model and showed mixed results of gender.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2015-10-01
    Description: Despite considerable interest in the weather enterprise, there is little focused research on the “false alarm effect.” Within the body of research that does exist, findings are mixed. Some studies suggest that the false alarm effect is overstated, while several recent efforts have provided evidence that FAR may be a significant determinate of behavior. This effort contributes to the understanding of FAR through a sociological analysis of public perceptions and behavioral responses to tornadoes. This analysis begins by addressing public definitions of FAR and then provides two statistical models, one focused on perception of FAR and one focused on behavioral response to tornado warnings. The authors’ approach incorporates a number of sociological and other social science concepts as predictors in both of these models. Findings provide a number of important insights. Most notably, it is found that 1) there is a wide degree of variation in public definitions of false alarm, 2) actual county FAR rates do not predict perception of FAR, 3) actual county FAR rates do predict behavioral response, and 4) planning and family characteristics are also influential. Another major contribution is to illustrate the significant complexity associated with analysis of false alarms. Conclusions discuss the limits of this analysis and future direction for this type of research.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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