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  • 1
    Call number: 9783030015992 (e-book)
    Description / Table of Contents: Middle East and Mediterranean region locates at a crossroad of global climatic patterns. The region is under the influence of a convergence of different maritime conditions which together with extensive adjacent land masses marked by extreme differences in topographical features transporting continental air masses lead to a diverse climate. This edited volume is based on the best papers accepted for presentation during the 1st Springer Conference of the Arabian Journal of Geosciences (CAJG-1), Tunisia 2018. It gives new insights on patterns and mechanisms of past, present and future climate/environmental changes mainly on Middle East and Mediterranean region by international researchers. The book is of interest to all researchers in the fields of climate, paleo-climate and paleo-environmental studies. Main topics include: • Spatio-temporal Patterns of Climate Change • Sea Level Variability • Climate Change Impacts and Migration Schemes • Paleoclimate Evolution • Paleoenvironmental Evolution
    Type of Medium: 12
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (xxv, 188 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Edition: Online edition Springer eBook Collection. Earth and Environmental Science
    ISBN: 9783030015992 , 978-3-030-01599-2
    ISSN: 2522-8722 , 2522-8714
    Series Statement: Advances in science, technology & innovation
    Language: English
    Note: Contents Part I Keynote Fifty Years of Paleoceanography: Major Achievements in Our Understanding of Past and Future Climate Change - Some Memories and Hearsay / Michael Sarnthein Part II Paleoceanographic Evolution Orbital-Scale Paleoceanographic Response to the Indian Monsoon in the Laxmi Basin of the Eastern Arabian Sea / Boo-Keun Khim, Ji-Eun Kim, Keiji Horikawa, Minoru Ikehara, Yoshihiro Asahara, and Jongmin Lee The 4.2 ka Event in the Euro-Mediterranean Region - A Study from the MISTRALS/PALEOMEX Program / Bassem Jalali and Marie-Alexandrine Sicre Record of Early Cretaceous Oceanic Anoxic Events in Adriatic Platform, Croatia / Antun Husinec and J. Fred Read Sedimentological and Geochemical Records of Lower Cretaceous Carbonate Successions Around Trabzon (NE Turkey): Implications for Paleoenvironmental Evolution and Paleoclimatological Conditions of Tethys / Merve Özyurt, M. Ziya Kirmaci, İ. Ömer Yılmaz, and Raif Kandemir Part III Paleoclimate Evolution Paleoclimate Evolution of the Kordofan Region (Sudan), During the Last 13 ka / Ahmed Dawelbeit, Etienne Jaillard, and Ali Eisawi Use of Paleoclimate Rainfall Data to Detect Mega Drought Signals / Joo-Heon Lee, Chanyang Sur, and Seo-Yeon Park Paleoclimatology Evidence of Eocene from Jaddala Formation in Northwestern Iraq / Alaa Al-Zubaidi and Omar Al-Badrani Holocene Paleoclimatic Variation Inferred from Study of Sediments in the Gulf of Tunis (North Africa) / Nizar Ouertani and Soumaya Yahyaoui Noble Gas Recharge Temperature of Sfax Deep Groundwater (Southeastern of Tunisia) / Rim Trabelsi, Mahdi Trabelsi, Kamel Zouari, and Takuya Matsumoto Time Analysis of Emberger’s Pluviothermic Q Index in the SW of the Iberian Peninsula / Leoncio García-Barrón, Julia Morales, and Arturo Sousa Systematic and Palaeoclimatic Investigations of Sivalhippus from the Late Miocene Siwaliks (Pakistan) / Muhammad tahir Waseem, Abdul majid Khan, Rana Mansoor Ahmad, Ayesha Iqbal, and Muhammad Ameen The Thar Desert Calcretes: A Proxy for Understanding Late Quaternary Paleoclimate Shifts / Hema Achyuthan Part IV Paleoenvironmental Evolution Using Environmental Isotopes and Krypton-81 to Characterize and Date Continental Intercalaire Paleogroundwater (Southern Tunisia) / Kamel Zouari, Takuya Matsumoto, Rim Trabelsi, and Pradeep Aggarwal Water Column Chemistry of Late Holocene Lake Bafa, Eastern Coast of the Aegean Sea (Turkey) / Özlem Bulkan, Ummuhan Sancar, Wei Wei, Xiaomin Zhu, and M. Namık Çağatay New Reports of Messinian Lago-Mare Episodes from Tunisia: Ostracods and Paleoenvironmental Implications / Rim Temani, Hayet Khayati Ammar, and Francesco Sciuto Geochemical Evidences of Paleoenvironmental Changes in Late Quaternary Lacustrine Sediments of the Konya Closed Basin (Konya, Turkey) / Hükmü Orhan, Arif Delikan, Ahmet Demir, Sevinç Kapan, Kemal Olgun, Ayhan Özmen, Ülkü Sayin, Gamze Ekici, Hülya Aydin, and Atike Nazik Reconstruction of Holocene Paleoenvironmental Changes Along Northern Coast of Sfax: Analysis of Foraminiferal Associations / Afef Khadraoui, Jérôme Bonnin, Chahira Zaïbi, and Fekri Kamoun Evolution of Korba Lagoon (Cap Bon, Tunisia) During the Last Millennia Based on the Analysis of Foraminiferal Assemblages / Asma Ben Hamad, Chahira Zaïbi, Martin R. Langer, and Fekri Kamoun Paleoenvironment Evolution of a Paralic System, El Guettiate and Dreïaa Sebkhas (Gulf of Gabès, Tunisia) / Zeineb Gargouri and Kamel Zouari Part V Spatio-temporal Patterns of Climate Change Testing for Collective Statistical Significance in Climate Change Detection Studies / Radan Huth and Martin Dubrovský Long-Term Variability of Gauged Precipitation Over California and Its Links to Circulation Patterns / Luciano Rodriguez, Cyril Rakovski, Mohamed Allali, and Hesham El-Askary Sensitivity of IDF Curves to Rainfall Gauge Type / A. S. Al-Wagdany Structural Characteristics of Precipitation in Jordan / Fayez A. Abdulla and Abdulelah Al-Qadami The Shift of the Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Its Impacts on Western Mediterranean / Mohammed-Said Karrouk Recent Rainfall Variability in the South-West Mediterranean Region and Links with Teleconnection Patterns / Sabrina Taibi, Imane Messelmi, Mohamed Meddi, and Mohamed Amine Feddal Regionalization of Precipitation in Jordan / Abdulelah Al-Qadami and Fayez A. Abdulla Correlation Between NAO and Radio Refractive Index Over Africa / Joseph Dada, Adekunle Titus Adediji, Kayode Adedayo, and Moses Ajewole Convective Cloud Climatology Over Indian Tropics and Nearby Regions Using Multi-spectral Satellite Observations / Anoop Kumar Mishra, Mohammd Rafiq, Sagarika Chandra, and Nagaiyavedu Adalarasu Sivarajan Analysis of Trend and Variability in Time Series of Extreme Daily Temperature of Abu Dhabi City (UAE) / Nishi Bhuvandas Black Carbon Aerosol Characteristics and Its Radiative Effect in Xuzhou City, China / Mengdie Xie and Wei Chen Part VI Sea Level Variability: Past, Present and Future On the Long-Term Mediterranean Sea Level Variability / Mahdi Haddad and Antonio Bonaduce Impacts of Relative Sea Level Change and Sedimentary Dynamic on an Historic Site Expansion Along the Coast Between Sfax and Jebeniena, Tunisia / Mohamed Kamoun, Afef Khadraoui, Asma Ben Hamad, Chahira Zaïbi, Martin R. Langer, Nejib Bahrouni, Mohamed Ben Youssef, and Fekri Kamoun Sedimentary Dynamic and Sea Level Variation Along Hachichina Coast (Sebkha Ras Younga, Gulf of Gabes, Tunisia) During Holocene: Response of Ostracods and Foraminifera Assemblages / Khaoula Ben Khlifa, Chahira Zaïbi, Jérome Bonnin, and Fekri Kamoun New Experimental Low Cost Technique of Sea-Level Monitoring: Toward a Sea-Level Monitoring for All / Yacine Hemdane, Mohamed Bouhmadouche, Bachir Hamadache, and Mohamed Aounallah Part VII Climate Change Impacts and Migration Schemes Economic Impact of Sand and Dust Storms on the Oil Sector in Kuwait / Ali Al-Hemoud and Safaa Al-Awadhi Spatial and Temporal Variations of Bare Land in Beijing, China: A 30-Year Analysis / Yating Chen and Aobo Liu Appraising Climate Change and Its Influence on Glaciers of South Asian Himalayan Region / Sheikh Saeed Ahmad, Javeria Saleem, and Marria Ghalib World Population: Its Connection with Climate Variations / Alexey V. Byalko Groundwater Resources Sustainability in Africa Under a Climate Change Scenario: Knowledge Gaps and Needs / Ahzegbobor P. Aizebeokhai, Kehinde D. Oyeyemi, and Adebola E. Adeniran Adaptation Strategies and Resilience to Climate Change for Warm, Dry-Summer Continental Climate in Iran / Gholamreza Roshan, José A. Orosa, Ángel M. Costa, and Rebeca Bouzón Building Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in a Small Region with a Warm and Semi-humid Climate Type (Iran) / Gholamreza Roshan, José A. Orosa, Ángel M. Costa, and Rebeca Bouzón Climate-Driven Migration Assessment of Southwestern Coast of Bangladesh / Iftekharul Anam Saikat, Nabila Nawshin, and M. Tauhid Ur Rahman
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2017-09-01
    Description: The western Himalayan region (WHR) was subject to a significant negative trend in the annual and monsoon rainfall during 1902–2005. Annual and seasonal rainfall change over the WHR of India was estimated using 22 rain gauge station rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department. The performance of 13 global climate models (GCMs) from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) and 42 GCMs from CMIP5 was evaluated through multiple analysis: the evaluation of the mean annual cycle, annual cycles of interannual variability, spatial patterns, trends, and signal-to-noise ratio. In general, CMIP5 GCMs were more skillful in terms of simulating the annual cycle of interannual variability compared to CMIP3 GCMs. The CMIP3 GCMs failed to reproduce the observed trend, whereas approximately 50% of the CMIP5 GCMs reproduced the statistical distribution of short-term (30 yr) trend estimates than for the longer-term (99 yr) trends from CMIP5 GCMs. GCMs from both CMIP3 and CMIP5 were able to simulate the spatial distribution of observed rainfall in premonsoon and winter months. Based on performance, each model of CMIP3 and CMIP5 was given an overall rank, which puts the high-resolution version of the MIROC3.2 model [MIROC3.2 (hires)] and MIROC5 at the top in CMIP3 and CMIP5, respectively. Robustness of the ranking was judged through a sensitivity analysis, which indicated that ranks were independent during the process of adding or removing any individual method. It also revealed that trend analysis was not a robust method of judging performances of the models as compared to other methods.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2020-09-09
    Description: We used empirical-statistical downscaling in a pseudo-reality context, where both large-scale predictors and small-scale predictands were based on climate model results. The large-scale conditions were taken from a global climate model and the small-scale conditions from the dynamical downscaling of the same global model with a convection permitting regional climate model covering South Norway. This hybrid downscaling approach, a “perfect model”-type experiment, provided 120-years of data under the CMIP5 high emission scenario. Ample calibration samples made rigorous testing possible, enabling us to evaluate the effect of empirical-statistical model configurations and predictor choices, and to assess the stationarity of the statistical models by investigating their sensitivity to different calibration intervals. The skill of the statistical models was evaluated in terms of their ability to reproduce the inter-annual correlation and long-term trends in seasonal 2-meter temperature (T2m), wet-day frequency (fw), and wet-day mean precipitation (μ). We found that different 30-year calibration intervals often resulted in differing statistical models, depending on the specific choice of years. The hybrid downscaling approach allowed us to emulate seasonal mean regional climate model output with a high spatial resolution (0.05° latitude and 0.1° longitude grid) for up to 100 GCM runs while circumventing the issue of short calibration time, and provides a robust set of empirically downscaled GCM runs.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1558-8432
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 4
  • 5
    Publication Date: 2017-02-01
    Print ISSN: 1895-6572
    Electronic ISSN: 1895-7455
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Springer
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  • 6
  • 7
    Publication Date: 2018-11-03
    Description: The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.
    Print ISSN: 1895-6572
    Electronic ISSN: 1895-7455
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Springer
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2018-12-05
    Description: A methodology for estimating and downscaling the probability associated with the duration of heatwaves is presented and applied as a case study for Indian wheat crops. These probability estimates make use of empirical-statistical downscaling and statistical modelling of probability of occurrence and streak length statistics, and we present projections based on large multi-model ensembles of global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and three different emissions scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Our objective was to estimate the probabilities for heatwaves with more than 5 consecutive days with daily maximum temperature above 35 ∘C, which represent a condition that limits wheat yields. Such heatwaves are already quite frequent under current climate conditions, and downscaled estimates of the probability of occurrence in 2010 is in the range of 20 %–84 % depending on the location. For the year 2100, the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 suggests more frequent occurrences, with a probability in the range of 36 %–88 %. Our results also point to increased probabilities for a hot day to turn into a heatwave lasting more than 5 days, from roughly 8 %–20 % at present to 9 %–23 % in 2100 assuming future emissions according to the RCP8.5 scenario; however, these estimates were to a greater extent subject to systematic biases. We also demonstrate a downscaling methodology based on principal component analysis that can produce reasonable results even when the data are sparse with variable quality.
    Print ISSN: 2364-3579
    Electronic ISSN: 2364-3587
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2017-11-28
    Description: The CHASE-PL (Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland) Climate Projections – Gridded Daily Precipitation and Temperature dataset 5 km (CPLCP-GDPT5) consists of projected daily minimum and maximum air temperatures and precipitation totals of nine EURO-CORDEX regional climate model outputs bias corrected and downscaled to a 5 km  ×  5 km grid. Simulations of one historical period (1971–2000) and two future horizons (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) assuming two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were produced. We used the quantile mapping method and corrected any systematic seasonal bias in these simulations before assessing the changes in annual and seasonal means of precipitation and temperature over Poland. Projected changes estimated from the multi-model ensemble mean showed that annual means of temperature are expected to increase steadily by 1 °C until 2021–2050 and by 2 °C until 2071–2100 assuming the RCP4.5 emission scenario. Assuming the RCP8.5 emission scenario, this can reach up to almost 4 °C by 2071–2100. Similarly to temperature, projected changes in regional annual means of precipitation are expected to increase by 6 to 10 % and by 8 to 16 % for the two future horizons and RCPs, respectively. Similarly, individual model simulations also exhibited warmer and wetter conditions on an annual scale, showing an intensification of the magnitude of the change at the end of the 21st century. The same applied for projected changes in seasonal means of temperature showing a higher winter warming rate by up to 0.5 °C compared to the other seasons. However, projected changes in seasonal means of precipitation by the individual models largely differ and are sometimes inconsistent, exhibiting spatial variations which depend on the selected season, location, future horizon, and RCP. The overall range of the 90 % confidence interval predicted by the ensemble of multi-model simulations was found to likely vary between −7 % (projected for summer assuming the RCP4.5 emission scenario) and +40 % (projected for winter assuming the RCP8.5 emission scenario) by the end of the 21st century. Finally, this high-resolution bias-corrected product can serve as a basis for climate change impact and adaptation studies for many sectors over Poland. The CPLCP-GDPT5 dataset is publicly available at http://dx.doi.org/10.4121/uuid:e940ec1a-71a0-449e-bbe3-29217f2ba31d.
    Print ISSN: 1866-3508
    Electronic ISSN: 1866-3516
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2017-07-19
    Description: The CHASE-PL (Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland) Climate Projections – Bias Corrected Daily Precipitation and Temperature dataset 5 km (CPLCP-GDPT5) consists of projected daily minimum and maximum air temperatures and precipitation totals of nine EURO-CORDEX regional climate model outputs bias corrected and downscaled to 5 × 5 km grid. Simulations of one historical period (1971–2000) and two future horizons (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) assuming two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were produced. We used the quantile mapping method and corrected any systematic bias in these simulations before assessing the changes in annual and seasonal means of precipitation and temperature over Poland. Projected changes estimated from the multi-model ensemble mean showed that annual means of temperature are expected to increase constantly by 1 °C until 2021–2050 and by 2 °C until 2071–2100 assuming the RCP4.5, which is accelerating assuming the RCP8.5 scenario and can reach up to almost 4 °C by 2071–2100. Similarly to temperature, projected changes in regional annual means of precipitation are expected to increase by 6 % to 10 % and by 8 % to 16 % for the two future horizons and RCPs, respectively. Similarly, individual model simulations also exhibited warmer and wetter conditions on an annual scale, showing an intensification of the magnitude of the change at the end of the 21st century. The same applied for projected changes in seasonal means of temperature showing a higher winter warming rate by up to 0.5 °C compared to the other seasons. However, projected changes in seasonal means of precipitation by the individual models largely differ and are sometimes inconsistent exhibiting spatial variations which depends on the selected season, location, future horizon and RCP. The overall range of the 90 % confidence interval predicted by the ensemble of multi-model simulations was found to likely vary between −7 % and +40 %, expected to occur in summer assuming the RCP4.5 scenarios and in winter assuming the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively, at the end of the 21st century. Finally, this high-resolution bias-corrected product can serve as a basis for climate change impact and adaptation studies for many sectors over Poland. CPLCP-GDPT5 dataset is publicly available at​ ​http://dx.doi.org/10.4121/uuid:e940ec1a-71a0-449e-bbe3-29217f2ba31d.
    Electronic ISSN: 1866-3591
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus
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