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    Opportunities and challenges in modeling emerging infectious diseases (2017)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    In: Science
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-07-14
    Description: The term "pathogen emergence" encompasses everything from previously unidentified viruses entering the human population to established pathogens invading new populations and the evolution of drug resistance. Mathematical models of emergent pathogens allow forecasts of case numbers, investigation of transmission mechanisms, and evaluation of control options. Yet, there are numerous limitations and pitfalls to their use, often driven by data scarcity. Growing availability of data on pathogen genetics and human ecology, coupled with computational and methodological innovations, is amplifying the power of models to inform the public health response to emergence events. Tighter integration of infectious disease models with public health practice and development of resources at the ready has the potential to increase the timeliness and quality of responses.
    Keywords: Medicine, Diseases
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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    Measles and the canonical path to elimination (2019)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    In: Science
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019
    Description: 〈p〉All World Health Organization regions have set measles elimination goals. We find that as countries progress toward these goals, they undergo predictable changes in the size and frequency of measles outbreaks. A country’s position on this "canonical path" is driven by both measles control activities and demographic factors, which combine to change the effective size of the measles-susceptible population, thereby driving the country through theoretically established dynamic regimes. Further, position on the path to elimination provides critical information for guiding vaccination efforts, such as the age profile of susceptibility, that could only otherwise be obtained through costly field studies or sophisticated analysis. Equipped with this information, countries can gain insight into their current and future measles epidemiology and select appropriate strategies to more quickly achieve elimination goals.〈/p〉
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
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    PAPER CURRENT
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