ALBERT

Description: The NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model has an important systematic error shared by many other models: stratocumuli are missed over the subtropical eastern oceans. It is shown that this error can be alleviated in the GFS by introducing a consideration of the low-level inversion and making two modifications in the model's representation of vertical mixing. The modifications consist of (a) the elimination of background vertical diffusion above the inversion and (b) the incorporation of a stability parameter based on the cloud-top entrainment instability (CTEI) criterion, which limits the strength of shallow convective mixing across the inversion. A control simulation and three experiments are performed in order to examine both the individual and combined effects of modifications on the generation of the stratocumulus clouds. Individually, both modifications result in enhanced cloudiness in the Southeast Pacific (SEP) region, although the cloudiness is still low compared to the ISCCP climatology. If the modifications are applied together, however, the total cloudiness produced in the southeast Pacific has realistic values. This nonlinearity arises as the effects of both modifications reinforce each other in reducing the leakage of moisture across the inversion. Increased moisture trapped below the inversion than in the control run without modifications leads to an increase in cloud amount and cloud-top radiative cooling. Then a positive feedback due to enhanced turbulent mixing in the planetary boundary layer by cloud-top radiative cooling leads to and maintains the stratocumulus cover. Although the amount of total cloudiness obtained with both modifications has realistic values, the relative contributions of low, middle, and high layers tend to differ from the observations. These results demonstrate that it is possible to simulate realistic marine boundary clouds in large-scale models by implementing direct and physically based improvements in the model parameterizations.

Description: The Preliminary VOCALS Model Assessment (PreVOCA) aims to assess contemporary atmospheric modeling of the subtropical South East Pacific, with a particular focus on the clouds and the marine boundary layer (MBL). Models results from fourteen modeling centers were collected including operational forecast models, regional models, and global climate models for the month of October 2006. Forecast models and global climate models produced daily forecasts, while most regional models were run continuously during the study period, initialized and forced at the boundaries with global model analyses. Results are compared in the region from 40° S to the equator and from 110° W to 70° W, corresponding to the Pacific coast of South America. Mean-monthly model surface winds agree well with QuikSCAT observed winds and models agree fairly well on mean weak large-scale subsidence in the region next to the coast. However they have greatly differing geographic patterns of mean cloud fraction with only a few models agreeing well with MODIS observations. Most models also underestimate the MBL depth by several hundred meters in the eastern part of the study region. The diurnal cycle of liquid water path is underestimated by most models at the 85° W 20° S stratus buoy site compared with satellite, consistent with previous modeling studies. The low cloud fraction is also underestimated during all parts of the diurnal cycle compared to surface-based climatologies. Most models qualitatively capture the MBL deepening around 15 October 2006 at the stratus buoy, associated with colder air at 700 hPa.

Description: The VAMOS1 Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx) was an international field program designed to make observations of poorly understood but critical components of the coupled climate system of the southeast Pacific. This region is characterized by strong coastal upwelling, the coolest SSTs in the tropical belt, and is home to the largest subtropical stratocumulus deck on Earth. The field intensive phase of VOCALS-REx took place during October and November 2008 and constitutes a critical part of a broader CLIVAR program (VOCALS) designed to develop and promote scientific activities leading to improved understanding, model simulations, and predictions of the southeastern Pacific (SEP) coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system, on diurnal to interannual timescales. The other major components of VOCALS are a modeling program with a model hierarchy ranging from the local to global scales, and a suite of extended observations from regular research cruises, instrumented moorings, and satellites. The two central themes of VOCALS-REx focus upon (a) links between aerosols, clouds and precipitation and their impacts on marine stratocumulus radiative properties, and (b) physical and chemical couplings between the upper ocean and the lower atmosphere, including the role that mesoscale ocean eddies play. A set of hypotheses designed to be tested with the combined field, monitoring and modeling work in VOCALS is presented here. A further goal of VOCALS-REx is to provide datasets for the evaluation and improvement of large-scale numerical models. VOCALS-REx involved five research aircraft, two ships and two surface sites in northern Chile. We describe the instrument payloads and key mission strategies for these platforms and give a summary of the missions conducted. 1 Variability of the American Monsoon Systems, an international CLIVAR program.

Description: We present a descriptive overview of the meteorology in the south eastern subtropical Pacific (SEP) during the VOCALS-REx intensive observations campaign which was carried out between October and November 2008. Mainly based on data from operational analyses, forecasts, reanalysis, and satellite observations, we focus on spatio-temporal scales from synoptic to planetary. A climatological context is given within which the specific conditions observed during the campaign are placed, with particular reference to the relationships between the large-scale and the regional circulations. The mean circulations associated with the diurnal breeze systems are also discussed. We then provide a summary of the day-to-day synoptic-scale circulation, air-parcel trajectories, and cloud cover in the SEP during VOCALS-REx. Three meteorologically distinct periods of time are identified and the large-scale causes for their different character are discussed. The first period was characterised by significant variability associated with synoptic-scale systems interesting the SEP; while the two subsequent phases were affected by planetary-scale disturbances with a slower evolution. The changes between initial and later periods can be partly explained from the regular march of the annual cycle, but contributions from subseasonal variability and its teleconnections were important. Across the whole of the two months under consideration we find a significant correlation between the depth of the inversion-capped marine boundary layer (MBL) and the amount of low cloud in the area of study. We discuss this correlation and argue that at least as a crude approximation a typical scaling may be applied relating MBL and cloud properties with the large-scale parameters of SSTs and tropospheric temperatures. These results are consistent with previously found empirical relationships involving lower-tropospheric stability.

Description: We present a descriptive overview of the meteorology in the south eastern Subtropical Pacific during the VOCALS-REx intensive observations campaign, which took place in October and November 2008. We provide a summary of the day-to-day meteorological and cloud conditions. Our main aim is to provide some broader spatial and temporal meteorological context for the measurements made during VOCALS-REx, attempting to link the large-scale conditions of the atmospheric circulation with the locally observed conditions, also with a view of estimating the representativity of the specific season that was sampled by VOCALS-REx.

Description: The present paper describes the Variability of the American Monsoon Systems (VAMOS) Ocean–Cloud–Atmosphere–Land Study (VOCALS), an international research program focused on the improved understanding and modeling of the southeastern Pacific (SEP) climate system on diurnal to interannual time scales. In the framework of the SEP climate, VOCALS has two fundamental objectives: 1) improved simulations by coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (CGCMs), with an emphasis on reducing systematic errors in the region; and 2) improved estimates of the indirect effects of aerosols on low clouds and climate, with an emphasis on the more precise quantification of those effects. VOCALS major scientific activities are outlined, and selected achievements are highlighted. Activities described include monitoring in the region, a large international field campaign (the VOCALS Regional Experiment), and two model assessments. The program has already produced significant advances in the understanding of major issues in the SEP: the coastal circulation and the diurnal cycle, the ocean heat budget, factors controlling precipitation and formation of pockets of open cells in stratocumulus decks, aerosol impacts on clouds, and estimation of the first aerosol indirect effect. The paper concludes with a brief presentation on VOCALS contributions to community capacity building before a summary of scientific findings and remaining questions.

Description: A model evaluation approach is proposed in which weather and climate prediction models are analyzed along a Pacific Ocean cross section, from the stratocumulus regions off the coast of California, across the shallow convection dominated trade winds, to the deep convection regions of the ITCZ—the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Cloud System Study/Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (GCSS/WGNE) Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI). The main goal of GPCI is to evaluate and help understand and improve the representation of tropical and subtropical cloud processes in weather and climate prediction models. In this paper, a detailed analysis of cloud regime transitions along the cross section from the subtropics to the tropics for the season June–July–August of 1998 is presented. This GPCI study confirms many of the typical weather and climate prediction model problems in the representation of clouds: underestimation of clouds in the stratocumulus regime by most models with the corresponding consequences in terms of shortwave radiation biases; overestimation of clouds by the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) in the deep tropics (in particular) with the corresponding impact in the outgoing longwave radiation; large spread between the different models in terms of cloud cover, liquid water path and shortwave radiation; significant differences between the models in terms of vertical cross sections of cloud properties (in particular), vertical velocity, and relative humidity. An alternative analysis of cloud cover mean statistics is proposed where sharp gradients in cloud cover along the GPCI transect are taken into account. This analysis shows that the negative cloud bias of some models and ERA-40 in the stratocumulus regions [as compared to the first International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP)] is associated not only with lower values of cloud cover in these regimes, but also with a stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition that occurs too early along the trade wind Lagrangian trajectory. Histograms of cloud cover along the cross section differ significantly between models. Some models exhibit a quasi-bimodal structure with cloud cover being either very large (close to 100%) or very small, while other models show a more continuous transition. The ISCCP observations suggest that reality is in-between these two extreme examples. These different patterns reflect the diverse nature of the cloud, boundary layer, and convection parameterizations in the participating weather and climate prediction models.