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  • 1
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    Simulating fluid injection in geological media with complex rheologies (2019)
    Institute of Physics
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-04-12
    Print ISSN: 1755-1307
    Electronic ISSN: 1755-1315
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Institute of Physics
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    PAPER CURRENT
  • 2
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    Quantifying strong seismic propagation effects in the upper volcanic edifice using sensitivity kernels (2021)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-01-01
    Print ISSN: 0012-821X
    Electronic ISSN: 1385-013X
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Elsevier
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  • 3
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    Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic (2022)
    Egu-Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-01-31
    Description: Volcanic eruptions are among the most jeopardizing natural events due to their potential impacts on life, assets, and the environment. In particular, atmospheric dispersal of volcanic tephra and aerosols during explosive eruptions poses a serious threat to life and has significant consequences for infrastructures and global aviation safety. The volcanic island of Jan Mayen, located in the North Atlantic under trans-continental air traffic routes, is considered the northernmost active volcanic area in the world with at least five eruptive periods recorded during the last 200 years. However, quantitative hazard assessments on the possible consequences for the air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption at Jan Mayen are nonexistent. This study presents the first comprehensive long-term volcanic hazard assessment for the volcanic island of Jan Mayen in terms of ash dispersal and concentration at different flight levels. In order to delve into the characterization and modeling of that potential impact, a probabilistic approach based on merging a large number of numerical simulations is adopted, varying the volcano's eruption source parameters (ESPs) and meteorological scenario. Each ESP value is randomly sampled following a continuous probability density function (PDF) based on the Jan Mayen geological record. Over 20 years of meteorological data is considered in order to explore the natural variability associated with weather conditions and is used to run thousands of simulations of the ash dispersal model FALL3D on a 2 km resolution grid. The simulated scenarios are combined to produce probability maps of airborne ash concentration, arrival time, and persistence of unfavorable conditions at flight levels 50 and 250 (FL050 and FL250). The resulting maps can serve as an aid during the development of civil protection strategies, to decision-makers and aviation stakeholders, in assessing and preventing the potential impact of a future ash-rich eruption at Jan Mayen.
    Description: Published
    Description: 139-163
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
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    2D Synthetic dataset of numerical simulations of long-period seismicity in a volcanic edifice and related sensitivity kernels (2022)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-11
    Description: This work describes the data used in the EPSL research article "Quantifying strong seismic propagation effects in the upper volcanic edifice using sensitivity kernels". The dataset is generated in order to investigate to what extent the seismic signals recorded on volcanoes are affected by near surface velocity structure. Data were calculated using the computational spectral elements scheme SPECFEM2D, where the wave propagation beneath Mount Etna volcano, Italy, was simulated in both homogeneous and heterogeneous models. The heterogeneous model comprises a low-velocity superficial structure (top several hundred meters) based on the previously published studies. Several different source mechanisms and locations were used in the simulations. The seismic wavefield was "recorded" by 15 surface receivers distributed along the surface of the volcano. The associated sensitivity kernels were also computed. These kernels highlight the region of the velocity model that affects the recorded seismogram within a desired time window. The text files describing the velocity models used in the simulations are also provided. The data may be of interest to volcano seismologists, as well as earthquake seismologists studying path effects and wave propagation through complex media.
    Description: European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007 2013) under the project NEMOH, grand agreement no. 289976.
    Description: Published
    Description: 106673
    Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Near surface velocity structure; Numerical simulations; Sensitivity kernels; Specfem2d; Volcanic edifice; Volcano seismic sources
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
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    Quantifying strong seismic propagation effects in the upper volcanic edifice using sensitivity kernels (2022)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-11
    Description: In volcanic environments, the correct interpretation of the signals recorded by a seismic station is critical for a determination of the internal state of the volcano. Those signals contain information about both the seismic source and the properties of the path travelled by the seismic wave. Therefore, understanding the path effect is necessary for both source inversions and geophysical investigation of the volcanoes' properties at depth. We present an application of the seismic adjoint methodology and sensitivity kernel analysis to investigate seismic wave propagation effects in the upper volcanic edifice. We do this by performing systematic numerical simulations to calculate synthetic seismograms in two-dimensional models of Mount Etna, Italy, considering different wave velocity properties. We investigate the relationship between different portions of a seismogram and different parts of the structural volcano model. In particular, we examine the influence of known near-surface low-velocity volcanic structure on the recorded seismic signals. Results improve our ability to understand path effects highlighting the importance of the shallowest velocity structure in shaping the recorded seismograms and support recent studies that show that, although long-period seismic events are commonly associated with magma movements in resonant conduits, these events can be reproduced without the presence of fluids. We conclude that edifice heterogeneities impart key signatures on volcano seismic traces that must be considered when investigating volcano seismic sources.
    Description: Published
    Description: 116683
    Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
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    Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen Island (Norway) and implications on air-traffic in the North Atlantic (2021)
    Egu-Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-12-23
    Description: Volcanic eruptions are amongst the most jeopardizing natural events due to their potential impacts on life, assets, and environment. In particular, atmospheric dispersal of volcanic tephra and aerosols during the explosive eruptions poses a serious threat to life and has significant consequences for infrastructures and global aviation safety. The volcanic island of Jan Mayen, located in the North Atlantic under trans-continental air traffic routes, is considered the northernmost active volcanic area in the world, with at least 5 eruptive periods recorded during the last 200 years. However, quantitative hazard assessments on the possible consequences for air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption at Jan Mayen are nonexistent. This study presents the first comprehensive long-term volcanic hazard assessment for Jan Mayen volcanic island in terms of ash dispersal and concentration at different flight levels. In order to delve in the characterization and modelling of that potential impact, a probabilistic approach based on merging a large number of numerical simulations is adopted, varying the volcano’s Eruption Source Parameters (ESPs) and meteorological scenario. Each ESP value is randomly sampled following a continuous Probability Density Function (PDF) based on the Jan Mayen geological record. Over 20 years of meteorological data are considered in order to explore the natural variability associated with weather conditions and used to run thousands of simulations of the ash dispersal model FALL3D on a 2 km-resolution grid. The simulated scenarios are combined to produce probability maps of airborne ash concentration, arrival time and persistence of unfavorable conditions at flight levels 50 and 250 (FL050 and FL250). The resulting maps can represent an aid to civil protection, decision makers and, moreover, aviation stakeholders in assessing and preventing the potential impact from a future ash-rich eruption at Jan Mayen.
    Description: In press
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 7
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    The EU Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth (ChEESE): Implementation, results, and roadmap for the second phase (2023)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-12-27
    Description: The EU Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth (ChEESE) develops exascale transition capabilities in the domain of Solid Earth, an area of geophysics rich in computational challenges embracing different approaches to exascale (capability, capacity, and urgent computing). The first implementation phase of the project (ChEESE-1P; 2018–2022) addressed scientific and technical computational challenges in seismology, tsunami science, volcanology, and magnetohydrodynamics, in order to understand the phenomena, anticipate the impact of natural disasters, and contribute to risk management. The project initiated the optimisation of 10 community flagship codes for the upcoming exascale systems and implemented 12 Pilot Demonstrators that combine the flagship codes with dedicated workflows in order to address the underlying capability and capacity computational challenges. Pilot Demonstrators reaching more mature Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) were further enabled in operational service environments on critical aspects of geohazards such as long-term and short-term probabilistic hazard assessment, urgent computing, and early warning and probabilistic forecasting. Partnership and service co-design with members of the project Industry and User Board (IUB) leveraged the uptake of results across multiple research institutions, academia, industry, and public governance bodies (e.g. civil protection agencies). This article summarises the implementation strategy and the results from ChEESE-1P, outlining also the underpinning concepts and the roadmap for the on-going second project implementation phase (ChEESE-2P; 2023–2026).
    Description: EU
    Description: Published
    Description: 47-61
    Description: OSV1: Verso la previsione dei fenomeni vulcanici pericolosi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: HPC ; Physical models ; 04.08. Volcanology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 8
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    On the feasibility and usefulness of high-performance computing in probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment: An application to tephra hazard from Campi Flegrei (2022)
    Frontiers Media S.A.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-09-23
    Description: For active volcanoes, knowledge about probabilities of eruption and impacted areas becomes valuable information for decision-makers to develop short- and long-term emergency plans, for which probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA) is needed. High-resolution or spatially extended PVHA requires extreme-scale high-performance computing systems. Within the framework of ChEESE (Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth; www.cheese-coe.eu), an effort was made to generate exascale-suitable codes and workflows to collect and process in some hours the large amount of data that a quality PVHA requires. To this end, we created an optimized HPC-based workflow coined PVHA_HPC-WF to develop PVHA for a volcano. This tool uses the Bayesian event tree methodology to calculate eruption probabilities, vent-opening location(s), and eruptive source parameters (ESPs) based on volcano history, monitoring system data, and meteorological conditions. Then, the tool interacts with the chosen hazard model, performing a simulation for each ESP set or volcanic scenario (VS). Finally, the resulting information is processed by proof-of-concept-subjected high-performance data analytics (HPDA) scripts, producing the hazard maps which describe the probability over time of exceeding critical thresholds at each location in the investigated geographical domain. Although PVHA_HPC-WF can be adapted to other hazards, we focus here on tephra (i.e., lapilli and ash) transport and deposition. As an application, we performed PVHA for Campi Flegrei (CF), Italy, an active volcano located in one of the most densely inhabited areas in Europe and under busy air traffic routes. CF is currently in unrest, classified as being in an attention level by the Italian Civil Protection. We consider an approximate 2,000 × 2,000 × 40 km computational domain with 2 km grid resolution in the horizontal and 40 vertical levels, centered in CF. To explore the natural variability and uncertainty of the eruptive conditions, we consider a large number of VSs allowing us to include those of low probability but high impact, and simulations of tephra dispersal are performed for each of them using the FALL3D model. Results show the potential of HPC to timely execute a vast range of simulations of complex numerical models in large high-resolution computational domains and analyze great volumes of data to obtain quality hazard maps.
    Description: Published
    Description: 941789
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 9
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    Assessing long-term tephra fallout hazard in southern Italy from Neapolitan volcanoes (2023)
    Egu-Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-23
    Description: Nowadays, modeling of tephra fallout hazard is coupled with probabilistic analysis that takes into account the natural variability of the volcanic phenomena in terms of eruption probability, eruption sizes, vent position, and meteorological conditions. In this framework, we present a prototypal methodology to carry out the long-term tephra fallout hazard assessment in southern Italy from the active Neapolitan volcanoes: Somma–Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia. The FALL3D model (v.8.0) has been used to run thousands of numerical simulations (1500 per eruption size class), considering the ECMWF ERA5 meteorological dataset over the last 30 years. The output in terms of tephra ground load has been processed within a new workflow for large-scale, high resolution volcanic hazard assessment, relying on a Bayesian procedure, in order to provide the mean annual frequency with which the tephra load at the ground exceeds given critical thresholds at a target site within a 50-year exposure time. Our results are expressed in terms of absolute mean hazard maps considering different levels of aggregation, from the impact of each volcanic source and eruption size class to the quantification of the total hazard. This work provides for the first time, a multi-volcano probabilistic hazard assessment posed by tephra fallout, comparable with those used for seismic phenomena and other natural disasters. This methodology can be applied to any other volcanic areas or over different exposure times, allowing researchers to account for the eruptive history of the target volcanoes that, when available, could include the occurrence of less frequent large eruptions, representing critical elements for risk evaluations.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2289–2311
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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