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Description: The Iberian lynx has suffered severe population declines in the twentieth century. An ecological modelling study that accounts for the effects of climate change, prey availability and management intervention now shows that lynx are likely to become extinct in the wild in the next 50 years. However, a carefully planned reintroduction program could avert extinction this century. Nature Climate Change 3 899 doi: 10.1038/nclimate1954

Print ISSN: 1758-678X

Electronic ISSN: 1758-6798

Topics: Geosciences

Published by Springer Nature

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Scale effects and human impact on the elevational species richness gradients (2008)

D. Nogues-Bravo ; M. B. Araujo ; T. Romdal ; [et al.]

Nature Publishing Group (NPG)

In: Nature. 453(7192): 216-9. doi: 10.1038/nature06812.

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Publication Date: 2008-05-10

Description: Despite two centuries of effort in characterizing environmental gradients of species richness in search of universal patterns, surprisingly few of these patterns have been widely acknowledged. Species richness along altitudinal gradients was previously assumed to increase universally from cool highlands to warm lowlands, mirroring the latitudinal increase in species richness from cool to warm latitudes. However, since the more recent general acceptance of altitudinal gradients as model templates for testing hypotheses behind large-scale patterns of diversity, these gradients have been used in support of all the main diversity hypotheses, although little consensus has been achieved. Here we show that when resampling a data set comprising 400,000 records for 3,046 Pyrenean floristic species at different scales of analysis (achieved by varying grain size and the extent of the gradients sampled), the derived species richness pattern changed progressively from hump-shaped to a monotonic pattern as the scale of extent diminished. Scale effects alone gave rise to as many conflicting patterns of species richness as had previously been reported in the literature, and scale effects lent significantly different statistical support to competing diversity hypotheses. Effects of scale on current studies may be affected by human activities, because montane ecosystems and human activities are intimately connected. This interdependence has led to a global reduction in natural lowland habitats, hampering our ability to detect universal patterns and impeding the search for universal diversity gradients to discover the mechanisms determining the distribution of biological diversity on Earth.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Nogues-Bravo, D -- Araujo, M B -- Romdal, T -- Rahbek, C -- England -- Nature. 2008 May 8;453(7192):216-9. doi: 10.1038/nature06812.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Department of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology, National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC, C/ Jose Gutierrez Abascal, 2, 28006 Madrid, Spain. davidnogues@mncn.csic.es〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18464741" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉

Keywords: *Altitude ; *Biodiversity ; Computer Simulation ; Costa Rica ; *Human Activities ; Models, Biological ; Software ; Spain ; Trees/physiology ; Tropical Climate

Print ISSN: 0028-0836

Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687

Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics

Published by Nature Publishing Group (NPG)

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Ecology. How does climate change affect biodiversity? (2006)

M. B. Araujo ; C. Rahbek

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

In: Science. 313(5792): 1396-7. doi: 10.1126/science.1131758.

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Publication Date: 2006-09-09

Description: 〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Araujo, Miguel B -- Rahbek, Carsten -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2006 Sep 8;313(5792):1396-7.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Department of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology, National Museum of Natural Sciences, 28006 Madrid, Spain. maraujo@mncn.csic.es〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16959994" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉

Keywords: Animals ; Artificial Intelligence ; *Biodiversity ; Birds ; *Climate ; *Computer Simulation ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Forecasting ; *Models, Biological ; Plants

Print ISSN: 0036-8075

Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203

Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics

Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

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Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century (2010)

H. M. Pereira ; P. W. Leadley ; V. Proenca ; [et al.]

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

In: Science. 330(6010): 1496-501. doi: 10.1126/science.1196624.

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Publication Date: 2010-10-28

Description: Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Pereira, Henrique M -- Leadley, Paul W -- Proenca, Vania -- Alkemade, Rob -- Scharlemann, Jorn P W -- Fernandez-Manjarres, Juan F -- Araujo, Miguel B -- Balvanera, Patricia -- Biggs, Reinette -- Cheung, William W L -- Chini, Louise -- Cooper, H David -- Gilman, Eric L -- Guenette, Sylvie -- Hurtt, George C -- Huntington, Henry P -- Mace, Georgina M -- Oberdorff, Thierry -- Revenga, Carmen -- Rodrigues, Patricia -- Scholes, Robert J -- Sumaila, Ussif Rashid -- Walpole, Matt -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2010 Dec 10;330(6010):1496-501. doi: 10.1126/science.1196624. Epub 2010 Oct 26.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Centro de Biologia Ambiental, Faculdade de Ciencias da Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal. hpereira@fc.ul.pt〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20978282" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉

Keywords: Animals ; Aquatic Organisms ; *Biodiversity ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; *Ecosystem ; Extinction, Biological ; Forecasting ; Models, Biological ; Plants ; Policy ; Population Dynamics

Print ISSN: 0036-8075

Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203

Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics

Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

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An update of Wallace's zoogeographic regions of the world (2012)

B. G. Holt ; J. P. Lessard ; M. K. Borregaard ; [et al.]

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

In: Science. 339(6115): 74-8. doi: 10.1126/science.1228282.

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Publication Date: 2012-12-22

Description: Modern attempts to produce biogeographic maps focus on the distribution of species, and the maps are typically drawn without phylogenetic considerations. Here, we generate a global map of zoogeographic regions by combining data on the distributions and phylogenetic relationships of 21,037 species of amphibians, birds, and mammals. We identify 20 distinct zoogeographic regions, which are grouped into 11 larger realms. We document the lack of support for several regions previously defined based on distributional data and show that spatial turnover in the phylogenetic composition of vertebrate assemblages is higher in the Southern than in the Northern Hemisphere. We further show that the integration of phylogenetic information provides valuable insight on historical relationships among regions, permitting the identification of evolutionarily unique regions of the world.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Holt, Ben G -- Lessard, Jean-Philippe -- Borregaard, Michael K -- Fritz, Susanne A -- Araujo, Miguel B -- Dimitrov, Dimitar -- Fabre, Pierre-Henri -- Graham, Catherine H -- Graves, Gary R -- Jonsson, Knud A -- Nogues-Bravo, David -- Wang, Zhiheng -- Whittaker, Robert J -- Fjeldsa, Jon -- Rahbek, Carsten -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2013 Jan 4;339(6115):74-8. doi: 10.1126/science.1228282. Epub 2012 Dec 20.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, Department of Biology, University of Copenhagen, 2100 Copenhagen O, Denmark.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23258408" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉

Keywords: Amphibians/classification ; Animals ; Birds/classification ; *Climate ; Mammals/classification ; *Phylogeny ; Phylogeography

Print ISSN: 0036-8075

Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203

Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics

Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

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Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe (2005)

D. Schroter ; W. Cramer ; R. Leemans ; [et al.]

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

In: Science. 310(5752): 1333-7. doi: 10.1126/science.1115233.

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Publication Date: 2005-10-29

Description: Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, "surplus land" for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Schroter, Dagmar -- Cramer, Wolfgang -- Leemans, Rik -- Prentice, I Colin -- Araujo, Miguel B -- Arnell, Nigel W -- Bondeau, Alberte -- Bugmann, Harald -- Carter, Timothy R -- Gracia, Carlos A -- de la Vega-Leinert, Anne C -- Erhard, Markus -- Ewert, Frank -- Glendining, Margaret -- House, Joanna I -- Kankaanpaa, Susanna -- Klein, Richard J T -- Lavorel, Sandra -- Lindner, Marcus -- Metzger, Marc J -- Meyer, Jeannette -- Mitchell, Timothy D -- Reginster, Isabelle -- Rounsevell, Mark -- Sabate, Santi -- Sitch, Stephen -- Smith, Ben -- Smith, Jo -- Smith, Pete -- Sykes, Martin T -- Thonicke, Kirsten -- Thuiller, Wilfried -- Tuck, Gill -- Zaehle, Sonke -- Zierl, Barbel -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2005 Nov 25;310(5752):1333-7. Epub 2005 Oct 27.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany. dagmar.schroeter@gmail.com〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16254151" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉

Keywords: Agriculture ; Biodiversity ; Carbon ; Climate ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Crops, Agricultural ; *Ecosystem ; Environment ; Europe ; Greenhouse Effect ; Humans ; Models, Statistical ; Models, Theoretical ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Trees/growth & development ; Urban Population ; Water Supply ; Wood

Print ISSN: 0036-8075

Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203

Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics

Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

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Consequences of climate change on the tree of life in Europe (2011)

W. Thuiller ; S. Lavergne ; C. Roquet ; [et al.]

Nature Publishing Group (NPG)

In: Nature. 470(7335): 531-4. doi: 10.1038/nature09705.

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Publication Date: 2011-02-18

Description: Many species are projected to become vulnerable to twenty-first-century climate changes, with consequent effects on the tree of life. If losses were not randomly distributed across the tree of life, climate change could lead to a disproportionate loss of evolutionary history. Here we estimate the consequences of climate change on the phylogenetic diversities of plant, bird and mammal assemblages across Europe. Using a consensus across ensembles of forecasts for 2020, 2050 and 2080 and high-resolution phylogenetic trees, we show that species vulnerability to climate change clusters weakly across phylogenies. Such phylogenetic signal in species vulnerabilities does not lead to higher loss of evolutionary history than expected with a model of random extinctions. This is because vulnerable species have neither fewer nor closer relatives than the remaining clades. Reductions in phylogenetic diversity will be greater in southern Europe, and gains are expected in regions of high latitude or altitude. However, losses will not be offset by gains and the tree of life faces a trend towards homogenization across the continent.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Thuiller, Wilfried -- Lavergne, Sebastien -- Roquet, Cristina -- Boulangeat, Isabelle -- Lafourcade, Bruno -- Araujo, Miguel B -- England -- Nature. 2011 Feb 24;470(7335):531-4. doi: 10.1038/nature09705. Epub 2011 Feb 16.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, UMR CNRS 5553, Universite Joseph Fourier, BP 53, FR-38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France. wilfried.thuiller@ujf-grenoble.fr〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21326204" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉

Keywords: Animals ; *Biodiversity ; *Birds ; *Climate Change ; Europe ; *Extinction, Biological ; Human Activities ; *Mammals ; Models, Theoretical ; *Phylogeny ; *Plants ; Species Specificity

Print ISSN: 0028-0836

Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687

Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics

Published by Nature Publishing Group (NPG)

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Additive threats from pathogens, climate and land-use change for global amphibian diversity (2011)

C. Hof ; M. B. Araujo ; W. Jetz ; [et al.]

Nature Publishing Group (NPG)

In: Nature. 480(7378): 516-9. doi: 10.1038/nature10650.

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Publication Date: 2011-11-18

Description: Amphibian population declines far exceed those of other vertebrate groups, with 30% of all species listed as threatened by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. The causes of these declines are a matter of continued research, but probably include climate change, land-use change and spread of the pathogenic fungal disease chytridiomycosis. Here we assess the spatial distribution and interactions of these primary threats in relation to the global distribution of amphibian species. We show that the greatest proportions of species negatively affected by climate change are projected to be found in Africa, parts of northern South America and the Andes. Regions with the highest projected impact of land-use and climate change coincide, but there is little spatial overlap with regions highly threatened by the fungal disease. Overall, the areas harbouring the richest amphibian faunas are disproportionately more affected by one or multiple threat factors than areas with low richness. Amphibian declines are likely to accelerate in the twenty-first century, because multiple drivers of extinction could jeopardize their populations more than previous, mono-causal, assessments have suggested.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Hof, Christian -- Araujo, Miguel B -- Jetz, Walter -- Rahbek, Carsten -- England -- Nature. 2011 Nov 16;480(7378):516-9. doi: 10.1038/nature10650.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Department of Biology, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, 2100 Copenhagen O, Denmark. christian.hof@senckenberg.de〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22089134" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉

Keywords: Amphibians/*physiology ; Animals ; *Biodiversity ; Chytridiomycota/physiology ; *Climate Change ; *Models, Biological ; Mycoses/*mortality ; Population Dynamics

Print ISSN: 0028-0836

Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687

Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics

Published by Nature Publishing Group (NPG)

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Spanish cuts: reform bureaucratic culture (2012)

M. B. Araujo

Nature Publishing Group (NPG)

In: Nature. 487(7405): 38-9. doi: 10.1038/487038e.

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Publication Date: 2012-07-06

Description: 〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Araujo, Miguel B -- England -- Nature. 2012 Jul 4;487(7405):38-9. doi: 10.1038/487038e.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22763539" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉

Keywords: *Budgets ; Research Support as Topic/*economics ; Science/*economics/*standards

Print ISSN: 0028-0836

Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687

Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics

Published by Nature Publishing Group (NPG)

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