ALBERT

Description: The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-R convective initiation (CI) algorithm predicts CI in real time over the next 0–60 min. While GOES-R CI has been very successful in tracking nascent clouds and obtaining cloud-top growth and height characteristics relevant to CI in an object-tracking framework, its performance has been hindered by elevated false-alarm rates, and it has not optimally combined satellite observations with other valuable data sources. Presented here are two statistical learning approaches that incorporate numerical weather prediction (NWP) input within the established GOES-R CI framework to produce probabilistic forecasts: logistic regression (LR) and an artificial-intelligence approach known as random forest (RF). Both of these techniques are used to build models that are based on an extensive database of CI events and nonevents and are evaluated via cross validation and on independent case studies. With the proper choice of probability thresholds, both the LR and RF techniques incorporating NWP data produce substantially fewer false alarms than when only GOES data are used. The NWP information identifies environmental conditions (as favorable or unfavorable) for the development of convective storms and improves the skill of the CI nowcasts that operate on GOES-based cloud objects, as compared with when the satellite IR fields are used alone. The LR procedure performs slightly better overall when 14 skill measures are used to quantify the results and notably better on independent case study days.

Description: The NASA/Shortterm Prediction, Research, and Transition (SPoRT) Program and NOAA/Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) work within the NOAA/Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Proving Ground to demonstrate the unique capabilities of the VIIRS instrument. Very similar to MODIS, the VIIRS instrument provides many highresolution visible and infrared channels in a broad spectrum. In addition, VIIRS is equipped with a lowlight sensor that is able to detect light emissions from the land and atmosphere as well as reflected sunlight by the lunar surface. This band is referred to as the DayNight Band due to the sunlight being used at night to see cloud and topographic features just as one would typically see in daytime visible imagery. NWS forecast offices that collaborate with SPoRT and CIRA have utilized MODIS imagery in operations, but have longed for more frequent passes of polarorbiting data. The VIIRS instrument enhances SPoRT collaborations with WFOs by providing another day and nighttime pass, and at times two additional passes due to its large swath width. This means that multispectral, RGB imagery composites are more readily available to prepare users for their use in GOESR era and highresolution imagery for use in highlatitudes is more frequently able to supplement standard GOES imagery within the SPoRT Hybrid GEOLEO product. The transition of VIIRS also introduces the new DayNight Band capability to forecast operations. An Intensive Evaluation Period (IEP) was conducted in Summer 2013 with a group of "Front Range" NWS offices related to VIIRS nighttime imagery. VIIRS singlechannel imagery is able to better analyze the specific location of fire hotspots and other land features, as well as provide a more true measurement of various cloud and aerosol properties than geostationary measurements, especially at night. Viewed within the SPoRT Hybrid imagery, the VIIRS data allows forecasters to better interpret the more frequent, but coarse GOES Imagery. Nighttime Microphysics and Dust RGB Imagery provides cloud analysis of cloud height, thickness, and composition in order for operational applications such as separating fog from low clouds, dust plume detection, and determining precipitating clouds in radar-void/ blocked regions. The DayNight Band has a particular benefit to seeing light from cities, fires, or other emissions as well as the reflection of moonlight off of clouds and smoke plumes, given the right lunar phase and angle. Examples from the VIIRS transition and IEP will be presented.

Description: Previous studies of tropical lightning activity using Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) data performed analyses of lightning behavior over mesoscale "feature" scales or over uniform grids. In order to study lightning and the governing ice microphysics intrinsic to thunderstorms at a more process-specific scale (i.e., the scale over which electrification processes and lightning occur in a "unit" thunderstorm), a new convective cell-scale database was developed by analyzing and refining the University of Utah's Precipitation Features database and retaining precipitation data parameters computed from the TRMM precipitation radar (PR), microwave imager (TMI) and LIS instruments. The resulting data base was to conduct a limited four-year study of tropical continental convection occurring over the Amazon Basin, Congo, Maritime Continent and the western Pacific Ocean. The analysis reveals expected strong correlations between lightning flash counts per cell and ice proxies, such as ice water path, minimum and average 85GHz brightness temperatures, and 18dBz echo top heights above the freezing level in all regimes, as well as regime-specific relationships between lighting flash counts and PR-derived surface rainfall rates. Additionally, radar CFADs were used to partition the 3D structure of cells in each regime at different flash counts. The resulting cell-scale analyses are compared to previous mesoscale feature and gridded studies wherever possible.

Description: No abstract available

Description: No abstract available

Description: RGB imagery can be created locally (i.e. client-side) from single band imagery already on the system with little impact given recommended change to texture cache in AWIPS II. Training/Reference material accessible to forecasters within their operational display system improves RGB interpretation and application as demonstrated at OPG. Application examples from experienced forecasters are needed to support the larger community use of RGB imagery and these can be integrated into the user's display system.

Description: No abstract available

Description: Microwave Integrated Retrieval System (MIRS) provides soundings of specific humidity from a variety of instruments and is combined with AIRS infrared soundings to create a Layered Precipitable Water (LPW) composite product. The LPW provides vertical moisture information in the column instead of just upper levels via WV imagery, or a single column value via TPW products. LPW is created every 3 hours using the last 12 hours worth of data and has a delivery latency of 40 minutes. Weaknesses include discontinuities in the composite. Strengths include seeing through clouds, over land usage, and greater spatial coverage of vertical moisture profiles. Applications of LPW include analysis of horizontal and vertical moisture gradients, verification of NWP moisture, and analysis of atmospheric rivers and other moisture advection. Operational testbed is ongoing to determine viability of wider distribution.

Description: The NASA/Shortterm Prediction, Research, and Transition (SPoRT) Program works closely with NOAA/NWS weather forecasters to transition unique satellite data and capabilities into operations in order to assist with nowcasting and shortterm forecasting issues. Several multispectral composite imagery (i.e. RGB) products were introduced to users in the early 2000s to support hydrometeorology and aviation challenges as well as incident support. These activities lead to SPoRT collaboration with the GOESR Proving Ground efforts where instruments such as MODIS (Aqua, Terra) and SNPP/VIIRS imagers began to be used as nearrealtime proxies to future capabilities of the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). One of the composite imagery products introduced to users was the Nighttime Microphysics RGB, originally developed by EUMETSAT. SPoRT worked to transition this imagery to NWS users, provide regionspecific training, and assess the impact of the imagery to aviation forecast needs. This presentation discusses the method used to interact with users to address specific aviation forecast challenges, including training activities undertaken to prepare for a product assessment. Users who assessed the multispectral imagery ranged from southern U.S. inland and coastal NWS weather forecast offices (WFOs), to those in the Rocky Mountain Front Range region and West Coast, as well as highlatitude forecasters of Alaska. These userbased assessments were documented and shared with the satellite community to support product developers and the broad users of new generation satellite data.

Description: Outline: Collaborative Partners; What is the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)?; Initial observations (Density Products); Lightning safety with GLM; The 30-minute lightning hazard product; Goal - Basic understanding of and how to use the lightning hazard product.