ALBERT

Description: Each Orbiter Vehicle (Space Shuttle Program) contains up to 24 Kevlar49/Epoxy Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPV) for storage of pressurized gases. In the wake of the Columbia accident and the ensuing Return To Flight (RTF) activities, Orbiter engineers reexamined COPV flight certification. The original COPV design calculations were updated to include recently declassified Kevlar COPV test data from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and to incorporate changes in how the Space Shuttle was operated as opposed to orinigially envisioned. 2005 estimates for the probability of a catastrophic failure over the life of the program (from STS-1 through STS-107) were one-in-five. To address this unacceptable risk, the Orbiter Project Office (OPO) initiated a comprehensive investigation to understand and mitigate this risk. First, the team considered and eventually deemed unfeasible procuring and replacing all existing flight COPVs. OPO replaced the two vessels with the highest risk with existing flight spare units. Second, OPO instituted operational improvements in ground procedures to signficiantly reduce risk, without adversely affecting Shuttle capability. Third, OPO developed a comprehensive model to quantify the likelihood of occurrance. A fully-instrumented burst test (recording a lower burst pressure than expected) on a flight-certified vessel provided critical understanding of the behavior of Orbiter COPVs. A more accurate model was based on a newly-compiled comprehensive database of Kevlar data from LLNL and elsewhere. Considering hardware changes, operational improvements and reliability model refinements, the mean reliability was determined to be 0.998 for the remainder of the Shuttle Program (from 2007, for STS- 118 thru STS-135). Since limited hardware resources precluded full model validation through multiple tests, additional model confidence was sought through the first-ever Accelerated Stress Rupture Test (ASRT) of a flown flight article. A Bayesian statistical approach was developed to interpret possible test results. Since the lifetime observed in the ASRT exceeded initial estimates by one to two orders of magnitude, the Space Shuttle Program deemed there was significant conservatism in the model and accepted continued operation with existing flight hardware. Given the variability in tank-to-tank original prooftest response, a non-destructive evaluation (NDE) technique utilizing Raman Spectroscopy was developed to directly measure COPV residual stress state. Preliminary results showed that patterns of low fiber elastic strains over the outside vessel surface, together with measured permanent volume growth during proof, could be directly correlated to increased fiber stress ratios on the inside fibers adjacent to the liner, and thus reduced reliability.

Description: Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) that have survived a long service time under pressure generally must be recertified before service is extended. Flight certification is dependent on the reliability analysis to quantify the risk of stress rupture failure in existing flight vessels. Full certification of this reliability model would require a statistically significant number of lifetime tests to be performed and is impractical given the cost and limited flight hardware for certification testing purposes. One approach to confirm the reliability model is to perform a stress rupture test on a flight COPV. Currently, testing of such a Kevlar49 (Dupont)/epoxy COPV is nearing completion. The present paper focuses on a Bayesian statistical approach to analyze the possible failure time results of this test and to assess the implications in choosing between possible model parameter values that in the past have had significant uncertainty. The key uncertain parameters in this case are the actual fiber stress ratio at operating pressure, and the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime; the former has been uncertain due to ambiguities in interpreting the original and a duplicate burst test. The latter has been uncertain due to major differences between COPVs in the database and the actual COPVs in service. Any information obtained that clarifies and eliminates uncertainty in these parameters will have a major effect on the predicted reliability of the service COPVs going forward. The key result is that the longer the vessel survives, the more likely the more optimistic stress ratio model is correct. At the time of writing, the resulting effect on predicted future reliability is dramatic, increasing it by about one "nine," that is, reducing the predicted probability of failure by an order of magnitude. However, testing one vessel does not change the uncertainty on the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime since testing several vessels would be necessary.

Description: Introducing composite vessels into the Space Shuttle Program represented a significant technical achievement. Each Orbiter vehicle contains 24 (nominally) Kevlar tanks for storage of pressurized helium (for propulsion) and nitrogen (for life support). The use of composite cylinders saved 752 pounds per Orbiter vehicle compared with all-metal tanks. The weight savings is significant considering each Shuttle flight can deliver 54,000 pounds of payload to the International Space Station. In the wake of the Columbia accident and the ensuing Return to Flight activities, the Space Shuttle Program, in 2005, re-examined COPV hardware certification. Incorporating COPV data that had been generated over the last 30 years and recognizing differences between initial Shuttle Program requirements and current operation, a new failure mode was identified, as composite stress rupture was deemed credible. The Orbiter Project undertook a comprehensive investigation to quantify and mitigate this risk. First, the engineering team considered and later deemed as unfeasible the option to replace existing all flight tanks. Second, operational improvements to flight procedures were instituted to reduce the flight risk and the danger to personnel. Third, an Orbiter reliability model was developed to quantify flight risk. Laser profilometry inspection of several flight COPVs identified deep (up to 20 mil) depressions on the tank interior. A comprehensive analysis was performed and it confirmed that these observed depressions were far less than the criterion which was established as necessary to lead to liner buckling. Existing fleet vessels were exonerated from this failure mechanism. Because full validation of the Orbiter Reliability Model was not possible given limited hardware resources, an Accelerated Stress Rupture Test of a flown flight vessel was performed to provide increased confidence. A Bayesian statistical approach was developed to evaluate possible test results with respect to the model credibility and thus flight rationale for continued operation of the Space Shuttle with existing flight hardware. A non-destructive evaluation (NDE) technique utilizing Raman Spectroscopy was developed to directly measure the overwrap residual stress state. Preliminary results provide optimistic results that patterns of fluctuation in fiber elastic strains over the outside vessel surface could be directly correlated with increased fiber stress ratios and thus reduced reliability.

Description: Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel (COPVs) that have survived a long service time under pressure generally must be recertified before service is extended. Sometimes lifetime testing is performed on an actual COPV in service in an effort to validate the reliability model that is the basis for certifying the continued flight worthiness of its sisters. Currently, testing of such a Kevlar49(registered TradeMark)/epoxy COPV is nearing completion. The present paper focuses on a Bayesian statistical approach to analyze the possible failure time results of this test and to assess the implications in choosing between possible model parameter values that in the past have had significant uncertainty. The key uncertain parameters in this case are the actual fiber stress ratio at operating pressure, and the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime; the former has been uncertain due to ambiguities in interpreting the original and a duplicate burst test. The latter has been uncertain due to major differences between COPVs in the data base and the actual COPVs in service. Any information obtained that clarifies and eliminates uncertainty in these parameters will have a major effect on the predicted reliability of the service COPVs going forward. The key result is that the longer the vessel survives, the more likely the more optimistic stress ratio is correct. At the time of writing, the resulting effect on predicted future reliability is dramatic, increasing it by about one nine , that is, reducing the probability of failure by an order of magnitude. However, testing one vessel does not change the uncertainty on the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime since testing several would be necessary.

Description: Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) are frequently used for storing pressurized gases aboard spacecraft and aircraft when weight saving is desirable compared to all-metal versions. Failure mechanisms in fibrous COPVs and variability in lifetime can be very different from their metallic counterparts; in the former, catastrophic stress-rupture can occur with virtually no warning, whereas in latter, a leak before burst design philosophy can be implemented. Qualification and certification typically requires only one burst test on a production sample (possibly after several pressure cycles) and the vessel need only meet a design burst strength (the maximum operating pressure divided by a knockdown factor). Typically there is no requirement to assess variability in burst strength or lifetime, much less determine production and materials processing parameters important to control of such variability. Characterizing such variability and its source is crucial to models for calculating required reliability over a given lifetime (e.g. R = 0.9999 for 15 years). In this paper we present a case study of how lack of control of certain process parameters in COPV manufacturing can result in variations among vessels and between production runs that can greatly increase uncertainty and reduce reliability. The vessels considered are 40-inch ( NASA Glenn Research center, Cleveland, OH, 44135 29,500 in3 ) spherical COPVs with a 0.74 in. thick Kevlar49/epoxy overwrap and with a titanium liner of which 34 were originally produced. Two burst tests were eventually performed that unexpectedly differed by almost 5%, and were 10% lower than anticipated from burst tests on 26-inch sister vessels similar in every detail. A major observation from measurements made during proof testing (autofrettage) of the 40-inch vessels was that permanent volume growth from liner yielding varied by a factor of more than two (150 in3 to 360 in3 ), which suggests large differences in the residual stress gradient through their overwraps. This resulted in large uncertainty in true fiber stress ratio (fiber stress at operating pressure divided by fiber stress at burst) which governs lifetime. The vessels were originally designed with tight safety margins, so it became crucial to develop a non-destructive evaluation (NDE) technique to directly measure the overwrap residual stress state of each vessel, and to identify those vessels at highest risk of having poor reliability. This paper describes a Raman Spectroscopy technique for measuring certain patterns of fluctuation in fiber elastic strains over the outside vessel surface (where all but one wrap is exposed at certain locations) that are shown to directly correlate to increased fiber stress ratios and reduced reliability.

Description: We analyze the potential for liner buckling in a 40-in Kevlar49/epoxy overwrapped spherical pressure vessel (COPV) due to long, local depressions or valleys in the titanium liner, which appeared after proof testing (autofrettage). We begin by presenting the geometric characteristics of approximately 20 mil (0.02 in.) deep depressions measured by laser profilometry in several vessels. While such depths were more typical, depths of more than 40 mils (0.02 in.) were seen near the equator in one particular vessel. Such depressions are largely the result of overlap of the edges of overwrap bands (with rectangular cross-section prepreg tows) from the first or second wrap patterns particularly where they start and end. We then discuss the physical mechanisms of formation of the depressions during the autofrettage process in terms of uneven void compaction in the overwrap around the tow overlap lines and the resulting 10-fold increase in through-thickness stiffness of the overwrap. We consider the effects of liner plastic yielding mechanisms in the liner on residual bending moments and interface pressures with the overwrap both at the peak proof pressure (approx.6500 psi) and when reducing the pressure to 0 psi. During depressurization the Bauschinger phenomenon becomes very important whereby extensive yielding in tension reduces the magnitude of the yield threshold in compression by 30 to 40%, compared to the virgin annealed state of the liner titanium. In the absence of a depression, the liner is elastically stable in compression even at liner overwrap interface pressures nominally 6 times the approx. 1000 psi interface pressure that exists at 0 psi. Using a model based on a plate-on-an-elastic-foundation, we develop an extensive analysis of the possible destabilizing effects of a frozen-in valley. The analysis treats the modifying effects of the residual bending moments and interface pressures remaining after the proof hold as well as the Bauschinger effect on the compressive yield threshold. The key result is that depression depths of up to 40 mils can be tolerated, but above 40 mils, the Bauschinger effect drives destabilization, and buckling becomes increasingly likely depending on the details of depression formation during autofrettage. It is almost certain that destabilization and buckling will occur for depression depths beyond 55 mils. The main equations and formulas for treating the various phases of depression development and potential buckling, are only briefly outlined in the paper, but are available from the authors.