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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2007-06-01
    Description: A method for routinely verifying numerical weather prediction surface marine winds with satellite scatterometer winds is introduced. The marine surface winds from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s operational global and regional numerical weather prediction systems are evaluated. The model marine surface layer is described. Marine surface winds from the global and limited-area models are compared with observations, both in situ (anemometer) and remote (scatterometer). A 2-yr verification shows that wind speeds from the regional model are typically underestimated by approximately 5%, with a greater bias in the meridional direction than the zonal direction. The global model also underestimates the surface winds by around 5%–10%. A case study of a significant marine storm shows that where larger errors occur, they are due to an underestimation of the storm intensity, rather than to biases in the boundary layer parameterizations.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2018-07-25
    Description: In favorable atmospheric conditions, fires can produce pyrocumulonimbus cloud (pyroCb) in the form of deep convective columns resembling conventional thunderstorms, which may be accompanied by strong inflow, dangerous downbursts, and lightning strikes that can produce dangerous changes in fire behavior. PyroCb formation conditions are not well understood and are difficult to forecast. This paper presents a theoretical study of the thermodynamics of fire plumes to better understand the influence of a range of factors on plume condensation. Plume gases are considered to be undiluted at the fire source and approach 100% dilution at the plume top (neutral buoyancy). Plume condensation height changes are considered for this full range of dilution and for a given set of factors that include environmental temperature and humidity, fire temperature, and fire-moisture-to-heat ratios. The condensation heights are calculated and plotted as saturation point (SP) curves on thermodynamic diagrams. The position and slope of the SP curves provide insight into how plume condensation is affected by the environment thermodynamics and ratios of fire heat to moisture production. Plume temperature traces from large-eddy model simulations added to the diagrams provide additional insight into plume condensation heights and plume buoyancy at condensation. SP curves added to a mixed layer lifting condensation level on standard thermodynamic diagrams can be used to identify the minimum plume condensation height and buoyancy required for deep, moist, free convection to develop, which will aid pyroCb prediction.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2016-02-05
    Description: Plausible diagnostics for the top of the tropical cyclone boundary layer include (i) the top of the layer of strong frictional inflow and (ii) the top of the “well mixed” layer, that is, the layer over which potential temperature θ is approximately constant. Observations show that these two candidate definitions give markedly different results in practice, with the inflow layer being roughly twice the depth of the layer of nearly constant θ. Here, the authors will present an analysis of the thermodynamics of the tropical cyclone boundary layer derived from an axisymmetric model. The authors show that the marked dry static stability in the upper part of the inflow layer is due largely to diabatic effects. The radial wind varies strongly with height and, therefore, so does radial advection of θ. This process also stabilizes the boundary layer but to a lesser degree than diabatic effects. The authors also show that this differential radial advection contributes to the observed superadiabatic layer adjacent to the ocean surface, where the vertical gradient of the radial wind is reversed, but that the main cause of this unstable layer is heating from turbulent dissipation. The top of the well-mixed layer is thus distinct from the top of the boundary layer in tropical cyclones. The top of the inflow layer is a better proxy for the top of the boundary layer but is not without limitations. These results may have implications for boundary layer parameterizations that diagnose the boundary layer depth from thermodynamic, or partly thermodynamic, criteria.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2017-09-22
    Description: The transient response of the tropical cyclone boundary layer is studied using linearized and nonlinear models, with particular focus on the frictionally forced vertical motion. The impulsively started, linearized tropical cyclone boundary layer is shown to adjust to its equilibrium solution via a series of decaying oscillations with the inertial period . In the nonlinear case, the oscillation period is slightly lengthened by inward advection of the slower-evolving flow from larger radii, but the oscillations decay more quickly. In an idealized cyclone with small sinusoidal oscillations superimposed on the gradient wind, the equilibrium nonlinear boundary layer acts as a low-pass filter with pass length scaling as , where is the 10-m frictional inflow. This filter is absent from the linearized boundary layer. The eyewall frictional updraft is similarly displaced inward of the radius of maximum winds (RMW) by a distance that scales with , owing to nonlinear overshoot of the inflowing air as it crosses the relatively sharp increase in I near the eyewall. This displacement is smaller (other things being equal) when the RMW is small, and greater when it is large, including in secondary eyewalls. The dependence of this distance on may explain, at least partially, why observed RMW are seldom less than 20 km, why storms with relatively peaked radial profiles of wind speed can intensify more rapidly, and why some secondary eyewalls initially contract rapidly with little intensification, then contract more slowly while intensifying.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2018-09-28
    Description: Spiral bands are ubiquitous features in tropical cyclones and significantly affect boundary layer thermodynamics, yet knowledge of their boundary layer dynamics is lacking. Prompted by recent work that has shown that relatively weak axisymmetric vorticity perturbations outside of the radius of maximum winds in tropical cyclones can produce remarkably strong frictional convergence, and by the observation that most secondary eyewalls appear to form by the “wrapping up” of a spiral rainband, the effect of asymmetric vorticity features that mimic spiral bands is studied. The mass field corresponding to an axisymmetric vortex with added spiral vorticity band is constructed using the nonlinear balance equation, and supplied to a three-dimensional boundary layer model. The resulting flow has strong low-level convergence and a marked updraft extending along the vorticity band and some distance downwind. There is a marked along-band wind maximum in the upper boundary layer, similar to observations, which is up to about 20% stronger than the balanced flow. A marked gradient in the inflow-layer depth exists across the band and there is an increase in the surface wind factor (the ratio of surface wind speed to nonlinear-balanced wind speed) near the band. The boundary layer dynamics near a rainband therefore form a continuum with the flow near a secondary eyewall. None of these features are due to convective momentum transports, which are absent from the model. The sensitivities of the flow to band length, width, location, crossing angle, and amplitude are examined, and the possible contribution of boundary layer dynamics to the formation of the tropical cyclone rainbands discussed.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 1992-09-01
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2012-05-01
    Description: The boundary layer in a tropical cyclone is in some respects unlike that elsewhere in the atmosphere. It is therefore necessary to evaluate boundary layer parameterizations for their suitability for use in tropical cyclone simulation. Previous work has shown substantial sensitivity to the choice of scheme and identified specific shortcomings in some schemes, but without recommending which schemes are most suitable. Here, several schemes, representative of those available in popular modeling systems, are reviewed and applied in a simplified modeling framework. Based on a comparison with observations and on theoretical grounds, one popular class of schemes is shown to be badly flawed in that it incorrectly predicts the near-surface wind profile, and therefore should not be used. Another is shown to be sensitive to diagnosis of the boundary layer depth, a difficult problem in the core of the tropical cyclone, and caution is advised. The Louis boundary layer scheme and a higher-order closure scheme are, so far as can be discerned, without major problems, and are recommended. The recommendations and discussion herein should help users make a more informed choice of boundary layer parameterization, and to better understand the results that they obtain.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2015-09-24
    Print ISSN: 0035-9009
    Electronic ISSN: 1477-870X
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by Wiley
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2013-09-01
    Description: Three diagnostic models of the axisymmetric tropical cyclone boundary layer, with different levels of approximation, are applied to the problem of tropical cyclones with concentric eyewalls. The outer eyewall is shown to have an inherently stronger frictional updraft than the inner because it is in an environment of lower vorticity. Similarly, a relatively weak local enhancement of the radial vorticity gradient outside the primary radius of maximum winds can produce a significant frictional updraft, even if there is no outer wind maximum. Based on these results, it is proposed that the boundary layer contributes to the formation of outer eyewalls through a positive feedback among the local enhancement of the radial vorticity gradient, the frictional updraft, and convection. The friction-induced secondary circulation associated with the inner eyewall is shown to weaken as the outer wind maximum strengthens and/or contracts, so boundary layer processes will contribute, along with the heating-induced secondary circulation, to the weakening of the inner eyewall during an eyewall replacement cycle. An integral mass constraint on the friction-induced secondary circulation is derived and used to examine the oft-stated proposition that “the outer eyewall uses up the inflowing energy-rich boundary layer air.” Using the integral constraint, the author argues that formation of a secondary eyewall will tend to increase the total friction-induced secondary circulation and that, if the moat between the two eyewalls has a local vorticity minimum, then sufficient subsidence may occur there to maintain the primary eyewall's updraft. It is noted, however, that the enthalpy of the updraft is important as well as its mass.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2006-09-01
    Description: Part I of this paper presented a detailed analysis of the boundary layer of Hurricane Georges (1998), based mainly on the newly available high-resolution GPS dropsonde data. Here, similar techniques and data are used to study Hurricane Mitch (1998). In contrast to Hurricane Georges, the flow in the middle to upper boundary layer near the eyewall is found to be strongly supergradient, with the imbalance being statistically significant. The reason for the difference is shown to be the different radial structure of the storms, in that outside of the radius of maximum winds, the wind decreases much more quickly in Mitch than in Georges. Hurricane Mitch was close to inertially neutral at large radius, with a strong angular momentum gradient near the radius of maximum winds. Kepert and Wang predict strongly supergradient flow in the upper boundary layer near the radius of maximum winds in this situation; the observational analysis is thus in good agreement with their theory. The wind reduction factor (i.e., ratio of a near-surface wind speed to that at some level further aloft) is found to increase inward toward the radius of maximum winds, in accordance with theoretical predictions and the analysis by Franklin et al. Marked asymmetries in the boundary layer wind field and in the eyewall convection are shown to be consistent with asymmetric surface friction due to the storm’s proximity to land, rather than to motion. The boundary layer flow was simulated using Kepert and Wang’s model, forced by the observed storm motion, radial profile of gradient wind, and coastline position; and good agreement with the observations was obtained.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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