ALBERT

Description: Independent estimates of fossil fuel CO2 (CO2ff) emissions are key to ensuring that emission reductions and regulations are effective and provide needed transparency and trust. Point source emissions are a key target because a small number of power plants represent a large portion of total global emissions. Currently, emission rates...

Description: Time-series radiocarbon measurements have substantial ability to constrain the size and residence time of the soil C pools commonly represented in ecosystem models. 14C remains unique in its ability to constrain the size and turnover rate of the large stabilized soil C pool with roughly decadal residence times. The Judgeford soil, near Wellington, New Zealand, provides a detailed 11-point 14C time series enabling observation of the incorporation and loss of bomb 14C in surface soil from 1959–2002. Calculations of the flow of C through the plant-soil system can be improved further by combining the known constraints of net primary productivity (NPP) and 14C-derived C turnover. We show the Biome-BGC model provides good estimates of NPP for the Judgeford site and estimates NPP from 1956–2010. Synthesis of NPP and 14C data allows parameters associated with the rapid turnover “active” soil C pool to be estimated. This step is important because it demonstrates that NPP and 14C can provide full data-based constraint of pool sizes and turnover rates for the 3 pools of soil C used in nearly all ecosystem and global C-cycle models.

Description: We examine the utility of tree ring 14C archives for detecting long term changes in fossil CO2 emissions from a point source. Trees assimilate carbon from the atmosphere during photosynthesis, in the process faithfully recording the average atmospheric 14C content in each new annual tree ring. Using 14C as a proxy for fossil CO2, we examine interannual variability over six years of fossil CO2 observations between 2004-05 and 2011-12 from two trees growing near the Kapuni Natural Gas Plant in rural Taranaki, New Zealand. We quantify the amount of variability that can be attributed to transport and meteorology by simulating constant point source fossil CO2 emissions over the observation period with the atmospheric transport model WindTrax. We compare model simulation results to observations and calculate the amount of change in emissions that we can detect with new observations over annual or multi-year time periods given both measurement uncertainty of 1ppm and the modelled variation in transport. In particular, we ask, what is the minimum amount of change in emissions that we can detect using this method, given a reference period of six years? We find that changes of 42% or more could be detected in a new sample from one year at the same observation location, or 22% in the case of four years of new samples. This threshold lowers and the method becomes more practical the more the size of the signal increases. For point sources 10 times larger than the Kapuni plant (a more typical size for power plants worldwide), it would be possible to detect sustaine d emissions changes on the order of 10% given suitable meteorology and observations.

Description: We use the Kapuni Gas Treatment Plant to examine methodologies for atmospheric monitoring of point source fossil fuel CO2 (CO2ff) emissions. The Kapuni plant, located in rural New Zealand, removes CO2 from locally extracted natural gas and vents that CO2 to the atmosphere, at a rate of ~0.1 Tg carbon per year. The plant is located in a rural dairy farming area, with no other significant CO2ff sources nearby, but large, diurnally varying, biospheric CO2 fluxes from the surrounding highly productive agricultural grassland. We made flask measurements of CO2 and 14CO2 (from which we derive the CO2ff component) and in situ measurements of CO2 downwind of the Kapuni plant, using a Helikite to sample transects across the emission plume from the surface up to 100 m a.g.l. We also determined the surface CO2ff content averaged over several weeks from the 14CO2 content of grass samples collected from the surrounding area. We use the WindTrax plume dispersion model to compare the atmospheric observations with the emissions reported by the Kapuni plant, and to determine how well atmospheric measurements can constrain the emissions. The model has difficulty accurately capturing the fluctuations and short-term variability in the Helikite samples, but does quite well in representing the observed CO2ff in 15 min averaged surface flask samples and in ~1 week integrated CO2ff averages from grass samples. In this pilot study, we found that using grass samples, the modeled and observed CO2ff emissions averaged over one week agreed to within 30%. The results imply that greater verification accuracy may be achieved by including more detailed meteorological observations and refining 14CO2 sampling strategies.

Description: A regional atmospheric inversion method has been developed to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of CO2 sinks and sources across New Zealand for 2011–2013. This approach infers air-sea and air-land CO2 fluxes from measurement records, using back-trajectory simulations from the Numerical Atmospheric dispersion Modeling Environment (NAME) Lagrangian dispersion model, driven by meteorology from the New Zealand Limited Area Model (NZLAM) weather prediction model. The inversion uses in situ measurements from two fixed sites, Baring Head on the southern tip of New Zealand’s North Island (41.408°S, 174.871°E) and Lauder from the central South Island (45.038°S, 169.684°E), and ship board data from monthly cruises between Japan, New Zealand and Australia. A range of scenarios is used to assess the sensitivity of the inversion method to underlying assumptions, and to ensure robustness of the results. The results indicate a strong seasonal cycle in terrestrial land fluxes from the South Island of New Zealand, especially in western regions covered by indigenous forest, suggesting higher photosynthetic and respiratory activity than is evident in the current a priori land process model. On the annual scale, the terrestrial biosphere in New Zealand is estimated to be a net CO2 sink, removing 98 (±37) Tg CO2 yr−1 from the atmosphere on average during 2011–2013. This sink is much larger than the reported 27 Tg CO2 yr−1 from the national inventory for the same time period. The difference can be partially reconciled when factors related to forest and agricultural management and exports, fossil fuel emission estimates, hydrologic fluxes, and soil carbon change are considered, but some differences are likely to remain.

Description: Here we present an experimental setup for water stable isotope (δ18O and δD) continuous-flow measurements and provide metrics defining the performance of the setup during a major ice core measurement campaign (Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution; RICE). We also use the metrics to compare alternate systems. Our setup is the first continuous-flow laser spectroscopy system that is using off-axis integrated cavity output spectroscopy (OA-ICOS; analyzer manufactured by Los Gatos Research, LGR) in combination with an evaporation unit to continuously analyze water samples from an ice core. A Water Vapor Isotope Standard Source (WVISS) calibration unit, manufactured by LGR, was modified to (1) enable measurements on several water standards, (2) increase the temporal resolution by reducing the response time and (3) reduce the influence from memory effects. While this setup was designed for the continuous-flow analysis (CFA) of ice cores, it can also continuously analyze other liquid or vapor sources. The custom setups provide a shorter response time (~ 54 and 18 s for 2013 and 2014 setup, respectively) compared to the original WVISS unit (~ 62 s), which is an improvement in measurement resolution. Another improvement compared to the original WVISS is that the custom setups have a reduced memory effect. Stability tests comparing the custom and WVISS setups were performed and Allan deviations (σAllan) were calculated to determine precision at different averaging times. For the custom 2013 setup the precision after integration times of 103 s is 0.060 and 0.070 ‰ for δ18O and δD, respectively. The corresponding σAllan values for the custom 2014 setup are 0.030, 0.060 and 0.043 ‰ for δ18O, δD and δ17O, respectively. For the WVISS setup the precision is 0.035, 0.070 and 0.042 ‰ after 103 s for δ18O, δD and δ17O, respectively. Both the custom setups and WVISS setup are influenced by instrumental drift with δ18O being more drift sensitive than δD. The σAllan values for δ18O are 0.30 and 0.18 ‰ for the custom 2013 and WVISS setup, respectively, after averaging times of 104 s (2.78 h). Using response time tests and stability tests, we show that the custom setups are more responsive (shorter response time), whereas the University of Copenhagen (UC) setup is more stable. More broadly, comparisons of different setups address the challenge of integrating vaporizer/spectrometer isotope measurement systems into a CFA campaign with many other analytical instruments.

Description: We adapt and integrate the Biome-BGC and Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) models to simulate pastoral agriculture and to make land-use change, intensification and climate change scenario projections of New Zealand's pasture production at time slices centred on 2020, 2050 and 2100, with comparison to a present-day baseline. Biome-BGC model parameters are optimised for pasture production in both dairy and sheep/beef farm systems, representing a new application of the Biome-BGC model. Results show up to a 10% increase in New Zealand's national pasture production in 2020 under intensification and a 1–2% increase by 2050 from economic factors driving land-use change. Climate change scenarios using statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) also show national increases of 1–2% in 2050, with significant regional variations. Projected out to 2100, however, these scenarios are more sensitive to the type of pasture system and the severity of warming: dairy systems show an increase in production of 4% under mild change but a decline of 1% under a more extreme case, whereas sheep/beef production declines in both cases by 3% and 13%, respectively. Our results suggest that high-fertility systems such as dairying could be more resilient under future change, with dairy production increasing or only slightly declining in all of our scenarios. These are the first national-scale estimates using a model to evaluate the joint effects of climate change, CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedbacks on New Zealand's unique pastoral production systems that dominate the nation's agriculture and economy. Model results emphasize that CO2 fertilisation and N cycle feedback effects are responsible for meaningful differences in agricultural systems. More broadly, we demonstrate that our model output enables analysis of Decoupled Land-Use Change Scenarios (DLUCS): the Biome-BGC data products at a national or regional level can be re-sampled quickly and cost-effectively for specific land-use change scenarios and future projections.

Description: We adapt and integrate the Biome-BGC and Land Use in Rural New Zealand models to simulate pastoral agriculture and to make land-use change, intensification of agricultural activity and climate change scenario projections of New Zealand's pasture production at time slices centred on 2020, 2050 and 2100, with comparison to a present-day baseline. Biome-BGC model parameters are optimised for pasture production in both dairy and sheep/beef farm systems, representing a new application of the Biome-BGC model. Results show up to a 10% increase in New Zealand's national pasture production in 2020 under intensification and a 1–2% increase by 2050 from economic factors driving land-use change. Climate change scenarios using statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report also show national increases of 1–2% in 2050, with significant regional variations. Projected out to 2100, however, these scenarios are more sensitive to the type of pasture system and the severity of warming: dairy systems show an increase in production of 4% under mild change but a decline of 1% under a more extreme case, whereas sheep/beef production declines in both cases by 3 and 13%, respectively. Our results suggest that high-fertility systems such as dairying could be more resilient under future change, with dairy production increasing or only slightly declining in all of our scenarios. These are the first national-scale estimates using a model to evaluate the joint effects of climate change, CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedbacks on New Zealand's unique pastoral production systems that dominate the nation's agriculture and economy. Model results emphasise that CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedback effects are responsible for meaningful differences in agricultural systems. More broadly, we demonstrate that our model output enables analysis of decoupled land-use change scenarios: the Biome-BGC data products at a national or regional level can be re-sampled quickly and cost-effectively for specific land-use change scenarios and future projections.

Description: Here we present an experimental setup for water stable isotopes (δ18O and δD) continuous flow measurements. It is the first continuous flow laser spectroscopy system that is using Off-Axis Integrated Cavity Output Spectroscopy (OA-ICOS; analyzer manufactured by Los Gatos Research – LGR) in combination with an evaporation unit to continuously analyze sample from an ice core. A Water Vapor Isotopic Standard Source (WVISS) calibration unit, manufactured by LGR, was modified to: (1) increase the temporal resolution by reducing the response time (2) enable measurements on several water standards, and (3) to reduce the influence from memory effects. While this setup was designed for the Continuous Flow Analysis (CFA) of ice cores, it can also continuously analyze other liquid or vapor sources. The modified setup provides a shorter response time (~54 and 18 s for 2013 and 2014 setup, respectively) compared to the original WVISS unit (~62 s), which is an improvement in measurement resolution. Another improvement compared to the original WVISS is that the modified setup has a reduced memory effect. Stability tests comparing the modified WVISS and WVISS setups were performed and Allan deviations (σAllan) were calculated to determine precision at different averaging times. For the 2013 modified setup the precision after integration times of 103 s are 0.060 and 0.070‰ for δ18O and δD, respectively. For the WVISS setup the corresponding σAllan values are 0.030, 0.060 and 0.043‰ for δ18O, δD and δ17O, respectively. For the WVISS setup the precision is 0.035, 0.070 and 0.042‰ after 103 s for δ18O, δD and δ17O, respectively. Both the modified setups and WVISS setup are influenced by instrumental drift with δ18O being more drift sensitive than δD. The σAllan values for δ18O of 0.30 and 0.18‰ for the modified (2013) and WVISS setup, respectively after averaging times of 104 s (2.78 h). The Isotopic Water Analyzer (IWA)-modified WVISS setup used during the 2013 Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core processing campaign achieved high precision measurements, in particular for δD, with high temporal resolution for the upper part of the core, where a seasonally resolved isotopic signal is preserved.

Description: We use the Kapuni Gas Treatment Plant to examine methodologies for atmospheric monitoring of point source fossil fuel CO2 (CO2ff) emissions. The Kapuni plant, located in rural New Zealand, removes CO2 from locally extracted natural gas and vents that CO2 to the atmosphere, at a rate of ~0.1 Tg carbon per year. The plant is located in a rural dairy farming area, with no other significant CO2ff sources nearby, but large, diurnally varying, biospheric CO2 fluxes from the surrounding highly productive agricultural grassland. We made flask measurements of CO2 and 14CO2 (from which we derive the CO2ff component) and in situ measurements of CO2 downwind of the Kapuni plant, using a Helikite to sample transects across the emission plume from the surface up to 100 m above ground level. We also determined the surface CO2ff content averaged over several weeks from the 14C content of grass samples collected from the surrounding area. We use the WindTrax plume dispersion model to compare the atmospheric observations with the emissions reported by the Kapuni plant, and to determine how well atmospheric measurements can constrain the emissions. The model has difficulty accurately capturing the fluctuations and short-term variability in the Helikite samples, but does quite well in representing the observed CO2ff in 15 min averaged surface flask samples and in ~ one week integrated CO2ff averages from grass samples. In this pilot study, we found that using grass samples, the modeled and observed CO2ff emissions averaged over one week agreed to within 30%. The results imply that greater verification accuracy may be achieved by including more detailed meteorological observations and refining 14C sampling strategies.