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  • 1
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    The relationship of western Pacific monsoon and tropical cyclone activity to North Pacific and North American climate anomalies (2021)
    In:  http://aquaticcommons.org/id/eprint/15636 | 8 | 2014-11-13 22:28:28 | 15636
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-09
    Description: This present study investigates the influence of western Pacific tropical cyclone activity as possible centers of anomalous tropical heating on the large-scale circulation over the Pacific region. The characterization of tropical cyclone activity via an index based on anomalous 700 mb zonal wind is described first. Patterns of anomalous large-scale extratropical circulation anomalies based on composites of similar periods of tropical cyclone activity are then presented, followed by general conclusions.
    Keywords: Atmospheric Sciences ; PACLIM
    Repository Name: AquaDocs
    Type: conference_item
    Format: application/pdf
    Format: application/pdf
    Format: 99-106
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  • 2
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    Typhoon-ocean interaction in the western North Pacific : Part 1 (2012)
    The Oceanography Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Oceanography Society, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of The Oceanography Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Oceanography 24 no. 4 (2011): 24–31, doi:10.5670/oceanog.2011.91.
    Description: The application of new technologies has allowed oceanographers and meteorologists to study the ocean beneath typhoons in detail. Recent studies in the western Pacific Ocean reveal new insights into the influence of the ocean on typhoon intensity.
    Description: This work is supported by grants from the Office of Naval Research, N00014- 10-WX-20203 (Black), N00014-08-1- 0656 (Centurioni), N00014-08-1-0577 (D’Asaro), N00014-09-1-0816 (D’Asaro), N00014-10-WX-21335 (Harr), N00014-08-1-0614 (Jayne), N00014- 09-1-0133 (Lee), N00014-08-1-0560 (Lien), N00014-10-1-0313 (student support), N00014-08-1-0658 (Rainville), N00014-08-1-0560 (Sanford); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NA17RJ1231 (Centurioni); and the National Science Foundation OCE0549887 (D’Asaro).
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 3
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    An ocean coupling potential intensity index for tropical cyclones (2013)
    John Wiley & Sons
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © American Geophysical Union, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 40 (2013): 1878–1882, doi:10.1002/grl.50091.
    Description: Timely and accurate forecasts of tropical cyclones (TCs, i.e., hurricanes and typhoons) are of great importance for risk mitigation. Although in the past two decades there has been steady improvement in track prediction, improvement on intensity prediction is still highly challenging. Cooling of the upper ocean by TC-induced mixing is an important process that impacts TC intensity. Based on detail in situ air-deployed ocean and atmospheric measurement pairs collected during the Impact of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific (ITOP) field campaign, we modify the widely used Sea Surface Temperature Potential Intensity (SST_PI) index by including information from the subsurface ocean temperature profile to form a new Ocean coupling Potential Intensity (OC_PI) index. Using OC_PI as a TC maximum intensity predictor and applied to a 14 year (1998–2011) western North Pacific TC archive, OC_PI reduces SST_PI-based overestimation of archived maximum intensity by more than 50% and increases the correlation of maximum intensity estimation from r2 = 0.08 to 0.31. For slow-moving TCs that cause the greatest cooling, r2 increases to 0.56 and the root-mean square error in maximum intensity is 11 m s−1. As OC_PI can more realistically characterize the ocean contribution to TC intensity, it thus serves as an effective new index to improve estimation and prediction of TC maximum intensity.
    Description: This work is supported by Taiwan’s National Science Council and National Taiwan University (grant numbers: NSC 101- 2111-M-002-002-MY2; NSC 101-2628-M-002-001-MY4; 102R7803) and US Office of Naval Research (ONR) under the Impact of Typhoons on Pacific (ITOP) program. PB’s support is provided by ONR under PE 0601153N through NRL Contract N00173-10-C-6019.
    Keywords: Tropical cyclones ; Potential intensity index ; Ocean cooling
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 4
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    The National Earth System Prediction Capability: Coordinating the Giant (2017)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2017-02-01
    Description: The United States has had three operational numerical weather prediction centers since the Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit was closed in 1958. This led to separate paths for U.S. numerical weather prediction, research, technology, and operations, resulting in multiple community calls for better coordination. Since 2006, the three operational organizations—the U.S. Air Force, the U.S. Navy, and the National Weather Service—and, more recently, the Department of Energy, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Science Foundation, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, have been working to increase coordination. This increasingly successful effort has resulted in the establishment of a National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC) office with responsibility to further interagency coordination and collaboration. It has also resulted in sharing of data through an operational global ensemble, common software standards, and model components among the agencies. This article discusses the drivers, the progress, and the future of interagency collaboration.
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0477
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 5
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    Analysis of Tropical Storm Formation Based on Ensemble Data Assimilation and High-Resolution Numerical Simulations of a Nondeveloping Disturbance (2016)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-10-01
    Description: A nondeveloping tropical disturbance, identified as TCS025, was observed during three intensive observing periods during The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC)/Tropical Cyclone Structure-2008 (TCS-08) field experiment. The low-level circulation of the disturbance was relatively weak, asymmetric, and displaced a considerable distance from the midlevel circulation. An ensemble of high-resolution numerical simulations initialized from global model analyses was used to further examine TCS025. These simulations tended to unrealistically overdevelop the TCS025 disturbance. This study extends that work by examining the impact of assimilating in situ observations of TCS025 and dual-Doppler radial velocities from the airborne Electra Doppler Radar (ELDORA) using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) ensemble data assimilation system.The assimilation of observations results in a more accurate vortex structure that is consistent with the observational analysis. In addition, forecasts initialized from the state of the ensemble after data assimilation exhibit less development than both the control simulation and an ensemble of forecasts without prior data assimilation.A composite analysis of developing and nondeveloping forecasts from the ensemble reveals that convection was more active in developing simulations, especially near the low-level circulation center. This led to larger diabatic heating rates, spinup of the low-level circulation from vorticity stretching, and greater alignment of the low- and midlevel vorticity centers. In contrast, nondeveloping simulations exhibited less convection, and the circulation was more heavily impacted by vertical wind shear.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 6
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    Sensitivity to the Representation of Microphysical Processes in Numerical Simulations during Tropical Storm Formation (2016)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-10-01
    Description: An analysis of in situ observations from the nondeveloping tropical disturbance named TCS025 revealed that a combination of unfavorable system-scale and environmental factors limited further development. In this study, a multiphysics ensemble of high-resolution simulations of TCS025 are analyzed and compared. A simulation that overdeveloped the TCS025 disturbance is compared with one that correctly simulated nondevelopment and reveals that convection was stronger and diabatic heating rates were larger in the developing simulation. This led to continued spinup of the low-level circulation primarily through vorticity stretching. In contrast, convection was much weaker in the nondeveloping simulation, and after an initial period of deep convection, average vorticity tendencies from stretching became weakly negative, which allowed for the frictional spindown of the low-level circulation.Convective-scale differences identified early in the simulations appear to have resulted from the explicit representation of graupel in the developing simulation. The net impacts resulting from these differences in convection are manifest in the average diabatic heating profiles that are important for determining the developmental outcome. Additional simulations are conducted whereby the diabatic heating rates are artificially adjusted. Relatively small changes in the diabatic heating rate led to significantly different outcomes with respect to storm development, and the degree of overdevelopment is largely dictated by the diabatic heating rate. These findings suggest the correct representation of convective processes and associated diabatic heating are necessary to adequately forecast tropical cyclogenesis, especially for systems near a threshold of development like TCS025.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 7
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    Modeling Interaction of a Tropical Cyclone with Its Cold Wake (2017)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-11-29
    Description: This study first examines the tropical cyclone (TC) intensity response to its cold wake with time-invariant, stationary cold wakes and an uncoupled version of COAMPS-TC, and second with simulated cold wakes from the fully coupled version. The objective of the uncoupled simulations with the time-invariant cold wake is to fix the thermodynamic response and to isolate the dynamic response of the TC to the cold wake. While the stationary TC over a cold wake has an immediate intensity decrease, the intensity decrease with a long trailing wake from the moving TC was delayed. This time delay is attributed to a “wake jet” that leads to an enhanced inward transport of moist air that tends to offset the effect of decreasing enthalpy flux from the ocean. In the fully coupled version, the TC translating at 2 m s−1 generated a long trailing cold wake, and again the intensity decrease was delayed. Lagrangian trajectories released behind the TC center at four times illustrate the inward deflection and ascent and descent as the air parcels cross the trailing cold wake. The momentum budget analysis indicates large radial and tangential wind tendencies primarily due to imbalances among the pressure gradient force, the Coriolis, and the horizontal advection as the parcels pass over the cold wake. Nevertheless, a steadily increasing radial inflow (wake jet) is simulated in the region of a positive moisture anomaly that tends to offset the thermodynamic effect of decreasing enthalpy flux.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 8
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    A View of Tropical Cyclones from Above: The Tropical Cyclone Intensity Experiment (2017)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-10-01
    Description: Tropical cyclone (TC) outflow and its relationship to TC intensity change and structure were investigated in the Office of Naval Research Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) field program during 2015 using dropsondes deployed from the innovative new High-Definition Sounding System (HDSS) and remotely sensed observations from the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD), both on board the NASA WB-57 that flew in the lower stratosphere. Three noteworthy hurricanes were intensively observed with unprecedented horizontal resolution: Joaquin in the Atlantic and Marty and Patricia in the eastern North Pacific. Nearly 800 dropsondes were deployed from the WB-57 flight level of ∼60,000 ft (∼18 km), recording atmospheric conditions from the lower stratosphere to the surface, while HIRAD measured the surface winds in a 50-km-wide swath with a horizontal resolution of 2 km. Dropsonde transects with 4–10-km spacing through the inner cores of Hurricanes Patricia, Joaquin, and Marty depict the large horizontal and vertical gradients in winds and thermodynamic properties. An innovative technique utilizing GPS positions of the HDSS reveals the vortex tilt in detail not possible before. In four TCI flights over Joaquin, systematic measurements of a major hurricane’s outflow layer were made at high spatial resolution for the first time. Dropsondes deployed at 4-km intervals as the WB-57 flew over the center of Hurricane Patricia reveal in unprecedented detail the inner-core structure and upper-tropospheric outflow associated with this historic hurricane. Analyses and numerical modeling studies are in progress to understand and predict the complex factors that influenced Joaquin’s and Patricia’s unusual intensity changes.
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0477
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 9
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    The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones. Part II: Interaction with the Midlatitude Flow, Downstream Impacts, and Implications for Predictability (2019)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-03-13
    Description: The extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones often has an important impact on the nature and predictability of the midlatitude flow. This review synthesizes the current understanding of the dynamical and physical processes that govern this impact and highlights the relationship of downstream development during ET to high-impact weather, with a focus on downstream regions. It updates a previous review from 2003 and identifies new and emerging challenges and future research needs. First, the mechanisms through which the transitioning cyclone impacts the midlatitude flow in its immediate vicinity are discussed. This “direct impact” manifests in the formation of a jet streak and the amplification of a ridge directly downstream of the cyclone. This initial flow modification triggers or amplifies a midlatitude Rossby wave packet, which disperses the impact of ET into downstream regions (downstream impact) and may contribute to the formation of high-impact weather. Details are provided concerning the impact of ET on forecast uncertainty in downstream regions and on the impact of observations on forecast skill. The sources and characteristics of the following key features and processes that may determine the manifestation of the impact of ET on the midlatitude flow are discussed: the upper-tropospheric divergent outflow, mainly associated with latent heat release in the troposphere below, and the phasing between the transitioning cyclone and the midlatitude wave pattern. Improving the representation of diabatic processes during ET in models and a climatological assessment of the ET’s impact on downstream high-impact weather are examples for future research directions.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 10
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    Tropical Cyclone Track Characteristics as a Function of Large-Scale Circulation Anomalies (1991)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 1991-06-01
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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