Publication Date:
2010-05-15
Description:
It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions observed from 1975 to 2009 for regional biotas on four other continents, suggesting that lizards have already crossed a threshold for extinctions caused by climate change.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Sinervo, Barry -- Mendez-de-la-Cruz, Fausto -- Miles, Donald B -- Heulin, Benoit -- Bastiaans, Elizabeth -- Villagran-Santa Cruz, Maricela -- Lara-Resendiz, Rafael -- Martinez-Mendez, Norberto -- Calderon-Espinosa, Martha Lucia -- Meza-Lazaro, Rubi Nelsi -- Gadsden, Hector -- Avila, Luciano Javier -- Morando, Mariana -- De la Riva, Ignacio J -- Victoriano Sepulveda, Pedro -- Rocha, Carlos Frederico Duarte -- Ibarguengoytia, Nora -- Aguilar Puntriano, Cesar -- Massot, Manuel -- Lepetz, Virginie -- Oksanen, Tuula A -- Chapple, David G -- Bauer, Aaron M -- Branch, William R -- Clobert, Jean -- Sites, Jack W Jr -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2010 May 14;328(5980):894-9. doi: 10.1126/science.1184695.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA. lizardrps@gmail.com〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20466932" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
Keywords:
Acclimatization
;
Animals
;
*Biodiversity
;
Biological Evolution
;
Body Temperature
;
*Climate Change
;
*Ecosystem
;
*Extinction, Biological
;
Female
;
Forecasting
;
Geography
;
Global Warming
;
*Lizards/genetics/physiology
;
Male
;
Mexico
;
Models, Biological
;
Phylogeny
;
Population Dynamics
;
Reproduction
;
Seasons
;
Selection, Genetic
;
Temperature
Print ISSN:
0036-8075
Electronic ISSN:
1095-9203
Topics:
Biology
,
Chemistry and Pharmacology
,
Computer Science
,
Medicine
,
Natural Sciences in General
,
Physics
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