ISSN:
1573-0956
Keywords:
Snow avalanches
;
modelling
;
forecasting
;
hazard
;
expert system
;
knowledge-based system
Source:
Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
Topics:
Geosciences
,
Physics
Notes:
Abstract In avalanche modelling and control and in avalanche forecasting, most of the knowledge is based on scientific theory but the experience of specialists (field practitioners, forecasters...) plays a large role. This paper presents two French computer-based systems dedicated to avalanche modelling and control and to avalanche forecasting. They are both based on expert knowledge. ELSA (Etude et Limites de Sites d'Avalanches), is a computer system dedicated to the modelling of the knowledge of avalanche experts and to theintegration of new symbolic computer models with classical numerical models. The basic aim of integration is to build a unique computer system incorporating all these models. After a description of the terrain representation, we present the different scenarios that ELSA takes into account. Then, the methods which deal with some phenomena occurring in avalanches are described. The problems involved in the integration of these methods close this first part. MEPRA is an expert system built to create an objective tool in avalanche risk forecasting. This development allowed us to imagine a processing system for 2 of the most important problems in avalanche risk forecasting: representation of the present snow cover characteristics and evaluation of avalanche instability and risk. In this way, mechanics and thermodynamics play a major role in the system. After a punctual validation at the location of a snow weather station and in order to describe the great variability of the snow pack and the avalanche risk in a massif, the MEPRA expert system was connected with a meteorological analysis system, SAFRAN and a numerical model to simulate the snow cover CROCUS. Then, every day, a MEPRA expert analysis is carried out in different locations with different orientations, slopes and altitudes. Its results were used successfully during the Winter Olympic Games of Albertville and by avalanche forecasters during the 92/93 winter season. The daily avalanche risks estimated by MEPRA are also compared with the observed avalanche activity during the 10 last winters. For a better description of local phenomena like wind slab or snow accumulation, a local version of this tool should be developed to integrate field characteristics.
Type of Medium:
Electronic Resource
URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00665742
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