ALBERT

Description: The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to strengthen the global response to climate change, and to maintain an average global temperature well below 2°C, with aspirations toward 1.5°C, by means of balancing sources and sinks of greenhouse gas emissions. Following this, the importance of carbon dioxide removal in global emission pathways has been further emphasized, and Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) that capture carbon from the atmosphere and remove it from the system have been put in the spotlight. NETs range from innovative, engineered technologies, to well-known approaches like afforestation/reforestation. These technologies essentially compensate for a shrinking carbon budget coupled with hard-to-abate future emissions, and a historical lack of action. However, none has been deployed at scales close to what is envisioned in emission pathways in line with the Paris Agreement goals. To understand the potential contribution of NETs to meet global emission goals, we need to better understand opportunities and constraints for deploying NETs on a national level. We examine 17 Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS), and discuss them in the context of available NETs feasibility assessments. Our mapping shows that most countries include NETs in their long-term strategies, and that enhancement of natural sinks is the most dominating type of NET in these strategies. In line with many feasibility assessments, LT-LEDS focus on technical and biophysical considerations, and neglect socio-cultural dimensions. We suggest that feasibility assessments at the national level need to be more holistic; context-specific and comprehensive in terms of aspects assessed.

Description: Net-Zero-2050 aims for a national roadmap for net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050, including integrated scenario analyses and negative emission technology assessment. The aim of this project briefing is to clarify the overall carbon budget available for Germany to comply with the global long-term temperature limit of well below 2°C of the Paris Agreement.

Description: The Net-Zero-2050 cluster aims for a national roadmap for net zero CO2 emissions by 2050, including integrated scenario analyses and negative emission technology assessment (see fact sheet Net-Zero-2050 Structure Project 1). This national target to substantially reduce national CO2 emissions by 2050 stems from the objective to comply with the global long-term temperature goal of well below 2°C of the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015). Within the cluster it is therefore important to decide on an approach for deriving a national remaining carbon budget from global emissions trajectories in agreement with the Paris Climate Agreement’s longterm temperature goal (UNFCCC, 2015). Allocating national carbon budgets is a balance of environmental effectiveness, equity, national capacity and ability, political feasibility, economic efficiency and technical requirements (Gignac and Matthews, 2015; Höhne et al., 2003; 2014). Given Germany’s capacity and abilities, we decided to follow a sustainable growth trajectory with a convergence phase to equal-per-capita CO2 emissions by 2035, and a net zero CO2 emissions trajectory after 2050 until the end of the century. This approach leads to a remaining Germany CO2 budget of 9 GtCO2 (from 1st January 2018 to 2050 and 2100), which we propose to be used across the Net-Zero-2050 cluster. The remaining carbon budget will serve as a target to be used in all work packages in a concerted way, either qualitatively or quantitatively, and in accordance with other work packages (see also fact sheet Net-Zero-2050 Energy Scenario Approach). The calculated budget is at the lower end of the national budget if allocated by the grandfathering approach (emissions are allocated with respect to today’s emissions shares: 5.5-13.1 GtCO2), but slightly higher than the highest estimate of an equal-per-capita remaining carbon budget (emissions are allocated with respect to Germany’s share of the global population: 3.5-8.4 GtCO2) The 9 GtCO2 national remaining CO2 budget, 6.9 GtCO2 from 1st January 2021, will need to be broken down by category (e.g. energy, land use, industrial processes, and man-made sinks and sources; see Gap Analysis Report) in order to provide a consistent approach across work packages.

Description: The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to strengthen the global response to climate change, and to maintain an average global temperature well below 2 °C, with aspirations towards 1.5 °C, by means of balancing sources and sinks of greenhouse gas emissions. Following this, the importance of carbon dioxide removal in global emission pathways has been further emphasized, and Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) that capture carbon from the atmosphere and remove it from the system have been put in the spotlight. NETs range from innovative, engineered technologies, to well-known approaches like afforestation/reforestation. These technologies essentially compensate for a shrinking carbon budget coupled with hard-to-abate future emissions, and a historical lack of action. However, none has been deployed at scales close to what is envisioned in emission pathways in line with the Paris Agreement goals. To understand the potential contribution of NETs to meet global emission goals, we need to better understand opportunities and constraints for deploying NETs on a national level. We examine 17 Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS), and discuss them in the context of available NETs feasibility assessments. Our mapping shows that most countries include NETs in their long-term strategies, and that enhancement of natural sinks is the most dominating type of NET in these strategies. In line with many feasibility assessments, LT-LEDS focus on technical and biophysical considerations, and neglect socio-cultural dimensions. We suggest that feasibility assessments at the national level need to be more holistic; context-specific and comprehensive in terms of aspects assessed.

Description: Germany 2050: For the first time Germany reached a balance between its sources of anthropogenic CO2 to the atmosphere and newly created anthropogenic sinks. This backcasting study presents a fictional future in which this goal was achieved by avoiding (∼645 Mt CO2), reducing (∼50 Mt CO2) and removing (∼60 Mt CO2) carbon emissions. This meant substantial transformation of the energy system, increasing energy efficiency, sector coupling, and electrification, energy storage solutions including synthetic energy carriers, sector-specific solutions for industry, transport, and agriculture, as well as natural-sink enhancement and technological carbon dioxide options. All of the above was necessary to achieve a net-zero CO2 system for Germany by 2050.

Description: Limiting global warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C, as agreed in the 2015 Paris Agreement, requires global carbon neutrality by mid-century at the latest. The corresponding carbon budget is decreasing steadily and significantly. To phase out carbon emissions in line with the specified temperature target, countries are formulating their mitigation efforts in their long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LT-LEDS). However, there are no standardized specifications for preparing these strategies, which is why the reports published to date differ widely in terms of structure and scope. To consider the multiple facets of reaching net-zero from a systemic perspective as comprehensively as possible, the authors propose the Net-Zero-2050 System: A novel, transferrable systems approach that supports the development of national endeavors toward carbon neutrality. The Net-Zero-2050 System is defined by three interconnected components: The Carbon-Emission-Based System, the surrounding Framing System and a set of system boundaries. For both systems levels, IPCC approaches were used as a basis and were then adjusted and supplemented by Net-Zero-2050. We suggest applying the Net-Zero-2050 System—beyond the project environment—in carbon emission based contexts at different levels. Especially at the national level, this would improve the comparability of the different national strategies to achieve carbon neutrality.