ALBERT

Description: Lava flow simulations help to better understand volcanic hazards and may assist emergency preparedness at active volcanoes. We demonstrate that at Fogo Volcano, Cabo Verde, such simulations can explain the 2014–2015 lava flow crisis and therefore provide a valuable base to better prepare for the next inevitable eruption. We conducted topographic mapping in the field and a satellite-based remote sensing analysis. We produced the first topographic model of the 2014–2015 lava flow from combined terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) and photogrammetric data. This high-resolution topographic information facilitates lava flow volume estimates of 43.7 ± 5.2 × 106 m3 from the vertical difference between pre- and posteruptive topographies. Both the pre-eruptive and updated digital elevation models (DEMs) serve as the fundamental input data for lava flow simulations using the well-established DOWNFLOW algorithm. Based on thousands of simulations, we assess the lava flow hazard before and after the 2014–2015 eruption. We find that, although the lava flow hazard has changed significantly, it remains high at the locations of two villages that were destroyed during this eruption. This result is of particular importance as villagers have already started to rebuild the settlements. We also analysed satellite radar imagery acquired by the German TerraSAR-X (TSX) satellite to map lava flow emplacement over time. We obtain the lava flow boundaries every 6 to 11 days during the eruption, which assists the interpretation and evaluation of the lava flow model performance. Our results highlight the fact that lava flow hazards change as a result of modifications of the local topography due to lava flow emplacement. This implies the need for up-to-date topographic information in order to assess lava flow hazards. We also emphasize that areas that were once overrun by lava flows are not necessarily safer, even if local lava flow thicknesses exceed the average lava flow thickness. Our observations will be important for the next eruption of Fogo Volcano and have implications for future lava flow crises and disaster response efforts at basaltic volcanoes elsewhere in the world.

Description: Published

Description: 1925–1951

Description: 5V. Processi eruttivi e post-eruttivi

Description: JCR Journal

Description: The study area used for this study was the Sabor river basin (located in the Northeast of Portugal), which is composed mostly for agroforestry. The objectives were to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of hydrological services that occurred due to land use changes between 1990 and 2008 and to consider two scenarios for the year 2045. The scenarios were, firstly, afforestation projection, proposed by the Regional Plan for Forest Management, and secondly, wildfires that will affect 32% of the basin area. In this work, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to simulate the provision of hydrological services, namely water quantity, being calibrated for daily discharge. The calibration and validation showed a good agreement for discharge with coefficients of determination of 0.63 and 0.8 respectively. The land use changes and the afforestation scenario showed decreases in water yield, surface flow, and groundwater flow and increases in evapotranspiration and lateral flow. The wildfire scenario, contrary to the afforestation scenario, showed an increase in surface flow and a decrease in lateral flow. The Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes in 2000 and 2006 showed average decreases in the water yield of 91 and 52 mm·year−1, respectively. The decrease in water yield was greater in the afforestation scenario than in the wildfires scenario mainly in winter months. In the afforestation scenario, the large decrease varied between 28 hm3·year−1 in October and 62 hm3·year−1 in January, while in the wildfires scenario, the decrease was somewhat smaller, varying between 15 hm3·year−1 in October and 49 hm3·year−1 in January.

Description: The Sabor River basin is a large basin (3170 km2) located in the northeast of Portugal and used mostly for agroforestry. One problem this basin faces is a lack of water during the dry season, when there is a higher demand for water to irrigate crops. To solve this problem, the Portuguese government created a National Irrigation Program to finance new irrigation areas and improve existing ones. Consequently, it is necessary to evaluate the past and future water availability for agricultural and domestic consumption in the basin. This was done through the development of a hydrological and water allocation model. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the hydrological processes that took place in the catchment between 1960 and 2008. The MIKE HYDRO Basin was used to simulate water allocation (irrigation and domestic consumption) in a historical view and under two scenarios. The historical view used the time period 1960–2008, and the two scenarios used the same time period but with an increase in the irrigated area. The first scenario simulated the irrigation of the total irrigable area that exists in the basin. The second scenario simulated a 29% increase in the olive grove area and a 24% decrease in the resident population, according to the projection for 2060. The results show that, in the historical view, the average annual water demand deficit was 31% for domestic consumption and 70% for irrigation, which represent 1372 × 103 m3 and 94 × 106 m3 of water, respectively. In the two scenarios, the water demand deficit increased to 37% for domestic consumption and 77% for irrigation. In the first scenario, the average annual water demand deficit was 183 × 106 m3 of water for irrigation. In the second scenario, the average annual water demand deficit was 385 × 103 m3 of water for domestic consumption, and 106 × 106 m3 of water for irrigating the expanded olive grove area. These results demonstrate that Portuguese farmers can use our model as a decision support tool to determine how much water needs to be stored to meet the present and future water demand.

Description: Water resources are threatened by many pollution sources. The harmful effects of pollution can be evaluated through biological indicators capable of tracing problems in life forms caused by the contaminants discharged into the streams. In the present study, the effects on stream water quality of landscape configuration, season, and distance from contaminant emissions of diffuse and point sources were accessed through the evaluation of a Portuguese macroinvertebrate index (IPtIN) in 12 observation points distributed within the studied area (Ave River Basin, Portugal). Partial least-squares path models (PLS-PMs) were used to set up cause–effect relationships between this index, various metrics adapted to forest, agriculture, and artificial areas, and the aforementioned emissions, considering 13 distances from the contaminant sources ranging from 100 m to 56 km. The PLS-PM models were applied to summer and winter data to explore seasonality effects. The results of PLS-PM exposed significant scale and seasonal effects. The harmful effects of artificial areas were visible for distances larger than 10 km. The impact of agriculture was also distance related, but in summer this influence was more evident. The forested areas could hold onto contamination mainly in the winter periods. The impact of diffuse contaminant emissions was stronger during summer, when accessed on a short distance. The impact of effluent discharges was small, compared to the influence of landscape metrics, and had a limited statistical significance. Overall, the PLS-PM results evidenced significant cause–effect relationships between land use metrics and stream water quality at 10 km or larger scales, regardless of the season. This result is valid for the studied catchment, but transposition to other similar catchments needs to be carefully verified given the limited, though available, number of observation points.

Description: Lava flow simulations help to better understand volcanic hazards and may assist emergency preparedness at active volcanoes. We demonstrate that at Fogo Volcano, Cabo Verde, such simulations can explain the 2014–2015 lava flow crisis and therefore provide a valuable base to better prepare for the next inevitable eruption. We conducted topographic mapping in the field and a satellite-based remote sensing analysis. We produced the first topographic model of the 2014–2015 lava flow from combined terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) and photogrammetric data. This high-resolution topographic information facilitates lava flow volume estimates of 43.7 ± 5.2 × 106 m3 from the vertical difference between pre- and posteruptive topographies. Both the pre-eruptive and updated digital elevation models (DEMs) serve as the fundamental input data for lava flow simulations using the well-established DOWNFLOW algorithm. Based on thousands of simulations, we assess the lava flow hazard before and after the 2014–2015 eruption. We find that, although the lava flow hazard has changed significantly, it remains high at the locations of two villages that were destroyed during this eruption. This result is of particular importance as villagers have already started to rebuild the settlements. We also analysed satellite radar imagery acquired by the German TerraSAR-X (TSX) satellite to map lava flow emplacement over time. We obtain the lava flow boundaries every 6 to 11 days during the eruption, which assists the interpretation and evaluation of the lava flow model performance. Our results highlight the fact that lava flow hazards change as a result of modifications of the local topography due to lava flow emplacement. This implies the need for up-to-date topographic information in order to assess lava flow hazards. We also emphasize that areas that were once overrun by lava flows are not necessarily safer, even if local lava flow thicknesses exceed the average lava flow thickness. Our observations will be important for the next eruption of Fogo Volcano and have implications for future lava flow crises and disaster response efforts at basaltic volcanoes elsewhere in the world.