ALBERT

Description: Observations by the Cloud Imaging and Particle Size (CIPS) instrument on the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) satellite show an anomalous decline in Northern Hemisphere polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs) from 26 July to 6 August 2014. The decline is attributed to local warming associated with the quasi-two-day wave and interhemispheric coupling (IHC) triggered by planetary wave breaking in the Antarctic (winter) stratosphere. The results indicate that the IHC in 2014 occurred via a pathway that previous studies have not emphasized. Based on observations from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and reanalyses from both the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM), we argue that a strengthening of the summer easterly jet gave rise to enhanced meridional and vertical shear along its equatorward flank, which supported growth of the two-day wave. The two-day wave led to enhanced meridional mixing in northern midlatitudes and a weakening of the northern branch of the mesospheric residual circulation, reducing ascent and warming the polar summer mesopause. In 2014, the five-day planetary wave modulated the response to IHC such that PMCs persisted in its cold phases even though zonal mean temperatures were too high to support PMCs, and were absent in the warm phases when zonal mean temperatures were low enough to support PMCs. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Description: The forecast model and three-dimensional variational data assimilation components of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) have each been extended into the upper stratosphere and mesosphere to form an Advanced Level Physics High Altitude (ALPHA) version of NOGAPS extending to ~100 km. This NOGAPS-ALPHA NWP prototype is used to assimilate stratospheric and mesospheric temperature data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Radiometry (SABER) instruments. A 60-day analysis period in January and February, 2006, was chosen that includes a well documented stratospheric sudden warming. SABER temperatures indicate that the SSW caused the polar winter stratopause at ~40 km to disappear, then reform at ~80 km altitude and slowly descend during February. The NOGAPS-ALPHA analysis reproduces this observed stratospheric and mesospheric temperature structure, as well as realistic evolution of zonal winds, residual velocities, and Eliassen-Palm fluxes that aid interpretation of the vertically deep circulation and eddy flux anomalies that developed in response to this wave-breaking event. The observation minus forecast (O-F) standard deviations for MLS and SABER are ~2 K in the mid-stratosphere and increase monotonically to about 6 K in the upper mesosphere. Increasing O-F standard deviations in the mesosphere are expected due to increasing instrument error and increasing geophysical variance at small spatial scales in the forecast model. In the mid/high latitude winter regions, 10-day forecast skill is improved throughout the upper stratosphere and mesosphere when the model is initialized using the high-altitude analysis based on assimilation of both SABER and MLS data.

Description: The forecast model and three-dimensional variational data assimilation components of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) have each been extended into the upper stratosphere and mesosphere to form an Advanced Level Physics High Altitude (ALPHA) version of NOGAPS extending to ~100 km. This NOGAPS-ALPHA NWP prototype is used to assimilate stratospheric and mesospheric temperature data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instruments. A 60-day analysis period in January and February 2006, was chosen that includes a well documented stratospheric sudden warming. SABER and MLS temperatures indicate that the SSW caused the polar winter stratopause at ~40 km to disappear, then reform at ~80 km altitude and slowly descend during February. The NOGAPS-ALPHA analysis reproduces this observed stratospheric and mesospheric temperature structure, as well as realistic evolution of zonal winds, residual velocities, and Eliassen-Palm fluxes that aid interpretation of the vertically deep circulation and eddy flux anomalies that developed in response to this wave-breaking event. The observation minus forecast (O-F) standard deviations for MLS and SABER are ~2 K in the mid-stratosphere and increase monotonically to about 6 K in the upper mesosphere. Increasing O-F standard deviations in the mesosphere are expected due to increasing instrument error and increasing geophysical variance at small spatial scales in the forecast model. In the mid/high latitude winter regions, 10-day forecast skill is improved throughout the upper stratosphere and mesosphere when the model is initialized using the high-altitude analysis based on assimilation of both SABER and MLS data.

Description: Two-dimensional radiance maps from Channel 9 (~60–90 hPa) of the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A), acquired over southern Scandinavia on 14 January 2003, show plane-wave-like oscillations with a wavelength λh of ~400–500 km and peak brightness temperature amplitudes of up to 0.9 K. The wave-like pattern is observed in AMSU-A radiances from 8 overpasses of this region by 4 different satellites, revealing a growth in the disturbance amplitude from 00:00 UTC to 12:00 UTC and a change in its horizontal structure between 12:00 UTC and 20:00 UTC. Forecast and hindcast runs for 14 January 2003 using high-resolution global and regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models generate a lower stratospheric mountain wave over southern Scandinavia with peak 90 hPa temperature amplitudes of ~5–7 K at 12:00 UTC and a similar horizontal wavelength, packet width, phase structure and time evolution to the disturbance observed in AMSU-A radiances. The wave's vertical wavelength is ~12 km. These NWP fields are validated against radiosonde wind and temperature profiles and airborne lidar profiles of temperature and aerosol backscatter ratios acquired from the NASA DC-8 during the second SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE II). Both the amplitude and phase of the stratospheric mountain wave in the various NWP fields agree well with localized perturbation features in these suborbital measurements. In particular, we show that this wave formed the type II polar stratospheric clouds measured by the DC-8 lidar. To compare directly with the AMSU-A data, we convert these validated NWP temperature fields into swath-scanned brightness temperatures using three-dimensional Channel 9 weighting functions and the actual AMSU-A scan patterns from each of the 8 overpasses of this region. These NWP-based brightness temperatures contain two-dimensional oscillations due to this resolved stratospheric mountain wave that have an amplitude, wavelength, horizontal structure and time evolution that closely match those observed in the AMSU-A data. These comparisons not only verify gravity wave detection and horizontal imaging capabilities for AMSU-A Channel 9, but provide an absolute validation of the anticipated radiance signals for a given three-dimensional gravity wave, based on the modeling of Eckermann and Wu (2006).

Description: Using a simplified model of in-orbit radiance acquisition by the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A), we derive three-dimensional temperature weighting functions for Channel 9 measurements (peaking at ~60–90 hPa) at all 30 cross-track beam positions and use them to investigate the sensitivity of these radiances to gravity waves. The vertical widths of the weighting functions limit detection to waves with vertical wavelengths of ≳10 km, with slightly better vertical wavelength sensitivity at the outermost scan angles due to the limb effect. Fourier Transforms of two-dimensional cross-track weighting functions reveal optimal sensitivity to cross-track wavelengths at the near-nadir scan angles, where horizontal measurement footprints are smallest. This sensitivity is greater for the AMSU-A on the Aqua satellite than for the identical instruments on the NOAA meteorological satellites, due to a lower orbit altitude and thus smaller horizontal footprints from antenna spreading. Small cross-track asymmetries in the radiance response to gravity waves are found that peak at the mid-range scan angles, with more symmetric responses at near-nadir and far off-nadir scan angles. Three-dimensional simulations show gravity wave oscillations imaged in horizontal AMSU-A radiance maps swept out by the scan pattern and satellite motion. A distorting curvature is added to imaged wave phase lines due to vertical variations in weighting function peaks with cross-track scan angle. This wave distortion is analogous to the well-known "limb darkening" and "limb brightening" of microwave radiances acquired from purely vertical background temperature profiles by cross-track scanners. Waves propagating along track are more visible in these images at the outermost scan angles than those propagating cross track, due to oversampling and narrower widths of the horizontal measurement footprints in the along track direction. Based on nominal noise floors and representative lower stratospheric wave temperature amplitudes, our modeling indicates that Channel 9 AMSU-A radiances can resolve and horizontally image gravity waves with horizontal wavelengths of ≳150 km and vertical wavelengths of ≳10 km.

Description: This paper presents three-dimensional prognostic O3 simulations with parameterized gas-phase photochemistry from the new NOGAPS-ALPHA middle atmosphere forecast model. We compare 5-day NOGAPS-ALPHA hindcasts of stratospheric O3 with satellite and DC-8 aircraft measurements for two cases during the SOLVE II campaign: (1) the cold, isolated vortex during 11-16 January 2003; and (2) the rapidly developing stratospheric warming of 17-22 January 2003. In the first case we test three different photochemistry parameterizations. NOGAPS-ALPHA O3 simulations using the NRL-CHEM2D parameterization give the best agreement with SAGE III and POAM III profile measurements. 5-day NOGAPS-ALPHA hindcasts of polar O3 initialized with the NASA GEOS4 analyses produce better agreement with observations than do the operational ECMWF O3 forecasts of case 1. For case 2, both NOGAPS-ALPHA and ECMWF 114-h forecasts of the split vortex structure in lower stratospheric O3 on 21 January 2003 show comparable skill. Updated ECMWF O3 forecasts of this event at hour 42 display marked improvement from the 114-h forecast; corresponding updated 42-hour NOGAPS-ALPHA prognostic O3 fields initialized with the GEOS4 analyses do not improve significantly. When NOGAPS-ALPHA prognostic O3 is initialized with the higher resolution ECMWF O3 analyses, the NOGAPS-ALPHA 42-hour lower stratospheric O3 fields closely match the operational 42-hour ECMWF O3 forecast of the 21 January event. We find that stratospheric O3 forecasts at high latitudes in winter can depend on both model initial conditions and the treatment of photochemistry over periods of 1-5 days. Overall, these results show that the new O3 initialization, photochemistry parameterization, and spectral transport in the NOGAPS-ALPHA NWP model can provide reliable short-range stratospheric O3 forecasts during Arctic winter.

Description: Kelvin waves excited by tropospheric convection are considered to be one of the main drivers of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). In this paper we combine several measured data sets with the Gravity wave Regional Or Global RAy Tracer (GROGRAT) in order to study the forcing and vertical propagation of Kelvin waves. Launch distributions for the ray tracer at tropospheric altitudes are deduced from space-time spectra of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses, as well as outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and rainfall data measured by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The resulting stratospheric Kelvin wave spectra are compared to ECMWF operational analyses and temperature measurements of the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) satellite instrument. Questions addressed are: the relative importance of source variability versus wind modulation, the relative importance of radiative and turbulent damping versus wave breaking, and the minimum altitude where freely propagating waves dominate the spectrum.

Description: The innovations or observation minus forecast (O–F) residuals produced by a data assimilation system provide a convenient metric of evaluating global analyses. In this study, O–F statistics from the Global Ozone Assimilation Testing System (GOATS) are used to examine how ozone assimilation products and their associated O–F statistics depend on input data biases and ozone photochemistry parameterizations (OPP). All the GOATS results shown are based on a 6-h forecast and analysis cycle using observations from SBUV/2 (Solar Backscatter UltraViolet instrument-2) during September–October 2002. Results show that zonal mean ozone analyses are more independent of observation biases and drifts when using an OPP, while the mean ozone O–Fs are more sensitive to observation drifts when using an OPP. In addition, SD O–Fs (standard deviations) are reduced in the upper stratosphere when using an OPP due to a reduction of forecast model noise and to increased covariance between the forecast model and the observations. Experiments that changed the OPP reference state to match the observations by using an "adaptive" OPP scheme reduced the mean ozone O–Fs at the expense of zonal mean ozone analyses being more susceptible to data biases and drifts. Additional experiments showed that the upper boundary of the ozone DAS can affect the quality of the ozone analysis and therefore should be placed well above (at least a scale height) the region of interest.