ALBERT

Description: The development of tropical depressions within tropical waves over the Atlantic and eastern Pacific is usually preceded by a "surface low along the wave" as if to suggest a hybrid wave-vortex structure in which flow streamlines not only undulate with the waves, but form a closed circulation in the lower troposphere surrounding the low. This structure, equatorward of the easterly jet axis, resembles the familiar critical layer of waves in shear flow, a flow configuration which arguably provides the simplest conceptual framework for tropical cyclogenesis resulting from tropical waves, their interaction with the mean flow, and with diabatic processes associated with deep moist convection. The critical layer represents a sweet spot for tropical cyclogenesis in which a proto-vortex may form and grow within its parent wave. A common location for storm development within the critical layer is given by the intersection of the wave's critical latitude and trough axis, with analyzed vorticity centroid nearby. The wave and vortex live together for a time, and initially propagate at approximately the same speed. In most cases this coupled propagation continues for a few days after a tropical depression is identified. For easterly waves, as the name suggests, the propagation is westward. It is shown that in order to visualize optimally this "marsupial paradigm" one should view the flow streamlines, or stream function, in a frame of reference translating horizontally with the phase propagation of the parent wave. This translation requires an appropriate "gauge" that renders translating streamlines and isopleths of translating stream function approximately equivalent to flow trajectories. In the translating frame, the closed circulation is stationary, and a dividing streamline effectively separates air within the critical layer from air outside. The critical layer equatorward of the easterly jet axis is important to tropical cyclogenesis because it provides (i) a region of cyclonic vorticity and weak deformation by the resolved flow, (ii) containment of moisture entrained by the gyre and/or lofted by deep convection therein, (iii) confinement of mesoscale vortex aggregation, (iv) a predominantly convective type of heating profile, and (v) maintenance or enhancement of the parent wave until the vortex becomes a self-sustaining entity and emerges from the wave as a tropical depression. These ideas are formulated in three new hypotheses describing the flow kinematics and dynamics, moist thermodynamics and wave/vortex interactions comprising the marsupial paradigm. A survey of 55 named tropical storms in 1998–2001 reveals that actual critical layers sometimes resemble the ideal east-west train of cat's eyes, but are usually less regular, with one or more recirculation regions in the translating frame. It is shown that a "wave gauge" given by the translation speed of the parent wave is the appropriate choice, as well, for isolated proto-vortices carried by the wave. Some implications for entrainment/containment of vorticity and moisture in the cat's eye are discussed from this perspective, based on the observational survey.

Description: Recent work has hypothesized that tropical cyclones in the deep Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins develop from the cyclonic Kelvin cat's eye of a tropical easterly wave critical layer located equatorward of the easterly jet axis that typifies the trade wind belt. The cyclonic critical layer is thought to be important to tropical cyclogenesis because its cat's eye provides (i) a region of cyclonic vorticity and weak deformation by the resolved flow, (ii) containment of moisture entrained by the developing flow and/or lofted by deep convection therein, (iii) confinement of mesoscale vortex aggregation, (iv) a predominantly convective type of heating profile, and (v) maintenance or enhancement of the parent wave until the developing proto-vortex becomes a self-sustaining entity and emerges from the wave as a tropical depression. This genesis sequence and the overarching framework for describing how such hybrid wave-vortex structures become tropical depressions/storms is likened to the development of a marsupial infant in its mother's pouch, and for this reason has been dubbed the "marsupial paradigm". Here we conduct the first multi-scale test of the marsupial paradigm in an idealized setting by revisiting the problem of the transformation of an easterly wave-like disturbance into a tropical storm vortex using the WRF model. An analysis of the evolving winds, equivalent potential temperature, and relative vertical vorticity is presented from coarse (28 km) and high resolution (3.1 km) simulations. The results are found to support key elements of the marsupial paradigm by demonstrating the existence of a vorticity dominant region with minimal strain/shear deformation within the critical layer pouch that contains strong cyclonic vorticity and high saturation fraction. This localized region within the pouch serves as the "attractor" for an upscale "bottom up" development process while the wave pouch and proto-vortex move together. Implications of these findings are discussed in relation to an upcoming field experiment for the most active period of the Atlantic hurricane season in 2010 that is to be conducted collaboratively between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the National Aeronautics and Space Adminstration (NASA).

Description: Zonal mean zonal velocity profiles from cloud-tracking observations on Jupiter and Saturn are used to infer latitudinal variations of potential temperature consistent with a shear stable potential vorticity distribution. Immediately below the cloud tops, density stratification is weaker on the poleward and stronger on the equatorward flanks of midlatitude jets, while at greater depth the opposite relation holds. Thermal wind balance then yields the associated vertical shears of midlatitude jets in an altitude range bounded above by the cloud tops and bounded below by the level where the latitudinal gradient of static stability changes sign. The inferred vertical shear below the cloud tops is consistent with existing thermal profiling of the upper troposphere. The sense of the associated mean meridional circulation in the upper troposphere is discussed, and expected magnitudes are given based on existing estimates of the radiative timescale on each planet. ©2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Description: Recent work has hypothesized that tropical cyclones in the deep Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins develop from within the cyclonic Kelvin cat's eye of a tropical easterly wave critical layer located equatorward of the easterly jet axis. The cyclonic critical layer is thought to be important to tropical cyclogenesis because its cat's eye provides (i) a region of cyclonic vorticity and weak deformation by the resolved flow, (ii) containment of moisture entrained by the developing flow and/or lofted by deep convection therein, (iii) confinement of mesoscale vortex aggregation, (iv) a predominantly convective type of heating profile, and (v) maintenance or enhancement of the parent wave until the developing proto-vortex becomes a self-sustaining entity and emerges from the wave as a tropical depression. This genesis sequence and the overarching framework for describing how such hybrid wave-vortex structures become tropical depressions/storms is likened to the development of a marsupial infant in its mother's pouch, and for this reason has been dubbed the "marsupial paradigm". Here we conduct the first multi-scale test of the marsupial paradigm in an idealized setting by revisiting the Kurihara and Tuleya problem examining the transformation of an easterly wave-like disturbance into a tropical storm vortex using the WRF model. An analysis of the evolving winds, equivalent potential temperature, and relative vertical vorticity is presented from coarse (28 km), intermediate (9 km) and high resolution (3.1 km) simulations. The results are found to support key elements of the marsupial paradigm by demonstrating the existence of a rotationally dominant region with minimal strain/shear deformation near the center of the critical layer pouch that contains strong cyclonic vorticity and high saturation fraction. This localized region within the pouch serves as the "attractor" for an upscale "bottom up" development process while the wave pouch and proto-vortex move together. Implications of these findings are discussed in relation to an upcoming field experiment for the most active period of the Atlantic hurricane season in 2010 that is to be conducted collaboratively between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the National Aeronautics and Space Adminstration (NASA).

Description: The formation of pre–Hurricane Felix (2007) in a tropical easterly wave is examined in a two-part study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a high-resolution nested grid configuration that permits the representation of cloud system processes. The simulation commences during the wave stage of the precursor African easterly-wave disturbance. Here the simulated and observed developments are compared, while in Part II of the study various large-scale analyses, physical parameterizations, and initialization times are explored to document model sensitivities. In this first part the authors focus on the wave/vortex morphology, its interaction with the adjacent intertropical convergence zone complex, and the vorticity balance in the neighborhood of the developing storm. Analysis of the model simulation points to a bottom-up development process within the wave critical layer and supports the three new hypotheses of tropical cyclone formation proposed recently by Dunkerton, Montgomery, and Wang. It is shown also that low-level convergence associated with the ITCZ helps to enhance the wave signal and extend the “wave pouch” from the jet level to the top of the atmospheric boundary layer. The region of a quasi-closed Lagrangian circulation within the wave pouch provides a focal point for diabatic merger of convective vortices and their vortical remnants. The wave pouch serves also to protect the moist air inside from dry air intrusion, providing a favorable environment for sustained deep convection. Consistent with the authors’ earlier findings, the tropical storm forms near the center of the wave pouch via system-scale convergence in the lower troposphere and vorticity aggregation. Components of the vorticity balance are shown to be scale dependent, with the immediate effects of cloud processes confined more closely to the storm center than the overturning Eliassen circulation induced by diabatic heating, the influence of which extends to larger radii.

Description: This is the second of a two-part study examining the simulated formation of Atlantic Hurricane Felix (2007) in a cloud-representing framework. Here several open issues are addressed concerning the formation of the storm’s warm core, the evolution and respective contribution of stratiform versus convective precipitation within the parent wave’s pouch, and the sensitivity of the development pathway reported in Part I to different model physics options and initial conditions. All but one of the experiments include ice microphysics as represented by one of several parameterizations, and the partition of convective versus stratiform precipitation is accomplished using a standard numerical technique based on the high-resolution control experiment. The transition to a warm-core tropical cyclone from an initially cold-core, lower tropospheric wave disturbance is analyzed first. As part of this transformation process, it is shown that deep moist convection is sustained near the pouch center. Both convective and stratiform precipitation rates increase with time. While stratiform precipitation occupies a larger area even at the tropical storm stage, deep moist convection makes a comparable contribution to the total rain rate at the pregenesis stage, and a larger contribution than stratiform processes at the storm stage. The convergence profile averaged near the pouch center is found to become dominantly convective with increasing deep moist convective activity there. Low-level convergence forced by interior diabatic heating plays a key role in forming and intensifying the near-surface closed circulation, while the midlevel convergence associated with stratiform precipitation helps to increase the midlevel circulation and thereby contributes to the formation and upward extension of a tropospheric-deep cyclonic vortex. Sensitivity tests with different model physics options and initial conditions demonstrate a similar pregenesis evolution. These tests suggest that the genesis location of a tropical storm is largely controlled by the parent wave’s critical layer, whereas the genesis time and intensity of the protovortex depend on the details of the mesoscale organization, which is less predictable. Some implications of the findings are discussed.

Description: As a nonlinear dynamical system with limit cycles but subject to periodic forcings associated with the seasonal cycle, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) displays seasonal modulation such that phase transitions are more likely to occur in certain months than in others. Modulation is distinct from seasonal synchronization, defined as quantized QBO periods and identical cycles. Instead, nearly identical QBO cycles can be identified in the data having similar period, internal structure, and (optionally) timing with respect to the calendar year. Four such categories are found using a spectral phase method based on the 2-D phase space of the leading rotated principal components (RPCs) of near-equatorial monthly mean zonal wind in the layer 70–10 hPa. The most prominent category, containing as many as 15 cycles of the 28 observed thus far, is “nearly biennial” with period slightly greater than 24 months. All results, prior to the recent QBO anomaly in Cycle 28, are demonstrated to be statistically stationary in the sense that the RPCs are temporally invariant and insensitive to the inclusion of data to 100 hPa and with higher vertical resolution. Inclusion of Cycle 28 has no effect on the rotated empirical orthogonal functions but a microscopic change in the long-term average, since strong easterlies are missing in the anomalous cycle. For objective definition of QBO cycles in physical space-time, westerly onsets in the 40–53 hPa layer are least likely to stall and provide unambiguous starting times. Half of these onsets cluster in April–May, consistent with the seasonal modulation obtained with the spectral phase method. ©2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.