Publication Date:
2012-07-17
Description:
Predicting when future species extinctions will occur is necessary for directing conservation investments but has proved difficult. We developed a new method for predicting extinctions over time, accounting for the timing and magnitude of habitat loss. We applied this to the Brazilian Amazon, predicting that local extinctions of forest-dependent vertebrate species have thus far been minimal (1% of species by 2008), with more than 80% of extinctions expected to be incurred from historical habitat loss still to come. Realistic deforestation scenarios suggest that local regions will lose an average of nine vertebrate species and have a further 16 committed to extinction by 2050. There is a window of opportunity to dilute the legacy of historical deforestation by concentrating conservation efforts in areas with greatest debt.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Wearn, Oliver R -- Reuman, Daniel C -- Ewers, Robert M -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2012 Jul 13;337(6091):228-32. doi: 10.1126/science.1219013.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22798612" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
Keywords:
Amphibians
;
Animals
;
Birds
;
Brazil
;
*Conservation of Natural Resources
;
*Ecosystem
;
*Extinction, Biological
;
Mammals
;
Monte Carlo Method
;
Time Factors
;
*Trees
;
*Vertebrates
Print ISSN:
0036-8075
Electronic ISSN:
1095-9203
Topics:
Biology
,
Chemistry and Pharmacology
,
Computer Science
,
Medicine
,
Natural Sciences in General
,
Physics
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