ALBERT

Description: The EU's Green Deal proposal and Farm to Fork strategy explicitly call for both demand and supply measures to reduce food system emissions. While research clearly illustrates the importance of dietary transitions, impacts of potential supply-side measures are not well understood in relation to competitiveness concerns and leakage effects. This study assesses trade and GHG emission impacts of two supply-side mitigation strategies in the EU (plus UK and Switzerland), against a 2050 baseline featuring healthy/sustainable diets adopted by European consumers. To capture potential leakage effects arising from changing external trade flows, two supply-side strategies (intensification and extensification) are assessed against three trade policy regimes, resulting in six scenarios formulated with detailed inputs from the EUCalc model and simulated with a purported-designed CGE model. Our results show that intensification, while improving the EU+2's external trade balance, does not reduce its emissions, compared to the baseline. In contrast, extensification leads to a substantial emission abatement that augments reductions from the assumed dietary transition embodied in the baseline, resulting in a combined 31.1% of agricultural emission reduction in EU+2 during 2014-2050. However, this is at the expense of worsening agrifood trade balance amounting to US$25 billion, and significant carbon leakages at 48%, implying that half of the EU+2's emission reduction are cancelled out by rising emissions elsewhere. Furthermore, implementing the EU+2's prospective regional trade agreements leads to increased EU emissions; however, a border carbon adjustment by the EU+2 can improve its trade balance and partially shifting mitigation burdens to other countries, but ultimately only marginally reduce global emissions (and carbon leakage). Finally, different trade and emission effects are identified between the crop and livestock sectors, pointing to the desirability of a mixed agriculture system with intensified livestock sector and extensified crop agriculture in EU+2 that balances emission reduction goals and competitiveness concerns.

Description: Decision makers increasingly recognize the importance of lifestyle changes in reaching low emission targets. How the mitigation potential of changes in mobility, dietary, housing or consumption behaviour compare to those of ambitious technological changes in terms of decarbonisation remains a key question. To evaluate the interplay of behaviour and technological changes, we make use of the European Calculator (EUCalc) model and show that changes in behaviour may contribute more than 20% of the overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions required for net-zero by 2050. Behaviour and technology-oriented scenarios are tested individually and in combination for the EU plus the UK and Switzerland. The impacts of behavioural change vary across sectors, with significant GHG emission reduction potential and broader benefits. Changes in travel behaviour limit the rising demand for electricity, natural resources and infrastructure costs from the electrification of passenger transport. Adopting a healthy diet reduces emissions substantially compared to intensifying agricultural practices, while at the same time making cropland available for conservation or bioenergy crops. The trade-offs between energy and food may be substantially alleviated when deploying technological and behavioural changes simultaneously. The results suggest that without behavioural change, the dependency of Europe on carbon removal technologies for its net-zero ambitions increases. Structural changes will be necessary to achieve full decarbonisation by 2050, yet changes in lifestyles are crucial, contributing to achieving climate targets sooner.