ISSN:
1420-9136
Keywords:
Statistical methods for visibility prediction
;
Atmospheric visibility
Source:
Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
Topics:
Geosciences
,
Physics
Notes:
Abstract This study attempts to find statistical methods of predicting infrared visibility (IRV), as calculated from hourly meteorological observations from a North Atlantic weather ship. Simple and multiple regressions expressing IRV as a function of its component weather variables, and exponential data transformations, for time lags of 1 to 24 hours, gaveR 2 values from 0.68 (1-hour lag) to 0.09 (24-hour lag). These have limited predictive power for lags up to 6 hours, almost none for longer lags. Two-category discriminant analysis, using class breaks at 2 km or 10 km is of little use, due to uneven data distribution. Possibly more promising would be an application of Machine Output Statistics (‘MOS’), used routinely for temperature forecasts, to this problem.
Type of Medium:
Electronic Resource
URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00877031
Permalink