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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Decision sciences 8 (1977), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1540-5915
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: This report presents an application of quantitative decision-analytic techniques to consider an opportunity for capital investment in a new product.Decision analysis is a well-established technique for evaluating major decisions in which substantial resources and time are available for the analysis and the problem is definitely formulated at the outset. This case study, however, illustrates how decision-analytic techniques can be used on-line to improve decision making in a situation in which time and resources are limited, and the manager's perception of the problem changes in response to feedback from the analysis.The basic decision problem was whether or not the AIL division of Cutler-Hammer, Incorporated should purchase a six-month option on a flight-safety system patent. The president of AIL had only a few weeks in which to make a decision.The analytic approach focused on a probabilistic discounted earnings model. This model was refined over a two-week period through a sequence of iterations which incorporated the results of both direct and indirect assessments of probabilities and values.The analysis affected the company's decision process by providing a vehicle for structuring the ongoing communication between AIL's president and his advisors, and by focusing their attention on the most important issues. In the end, the analysis facilitated a unanimous decision from the decision-making group not to purchase the option, but to consider participating in the license as a subcontractor at a later date. This strategy had not been considered at the outset.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 8 (1988), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: An approach to communicating decision and risk analysis findings to managers is illustrated in a real case context. This article consists essentially of a report prepared for senior managers of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to help them make a reactor safety decision. It illustrates the communication of decision analysis findings relating to technical risks, costs, and benefits in support of a major risk management decision: whether or not to require a safety backfit. Its focus is on the needs of decision makers, and it introduces some novel communication devices.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: After two decades of massive investigation, federal approval of a nuclear waste site is drawing to a close. Large-scale research to assure that major hazards such as this one are socially acceptable is often highly inefficient, as here. A regulatory remedy would be to require not only that risk currently assessed be acceptable, but also that risk would remain acceptable given any new information. Research to test compliance with these rules has to be cost effective. Research activities should be managed according to an explicit discipline that can be imposed on powerful conflicting interests. They might be required to (1) set targets for the first- and second-order risk assessments, (2) allocate research resources to close any gap between current and target assessments cost effectively, and (3) reallocate resources, as evolving findings dictate. The interests of license applicant (Department of Energy, DOE) and society are distinguished: the former would want the application approved; the latter would want to reject an unacceptable facility.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Decision sciences 9 (1978), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1540-5915
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: When making a current decision, like choosing an experiment, a subject will often take into account “subsequent acts” which he does not yet commit to. Common practice requires modeling through preposterior analysis, which treats one act as certain, conditional on the intervening information modeled. This is not logically necessary since the same expected utilities could be obtained by properly conditioning utility on any selection of events (including subsequent acts). The subject could assess utility marginal on subsequent acts or conditional on subsequent acts treated as uncertain events. The preposterior model is a special case of the latter where conditioning information is sufficiently modeled to imply subsequent act probabilities of zero or one. This paper argues that attempts at preposterior modeling are often unsuccessful and have critically flawed much current practice in decision analysis. Simpler approaches such as the “acts-as-events” model are intrinsically less dependent on restrictive assumptions and have been successfully applied to many real-world decisions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 5
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    New York : Periodicals Archive Online (PAO)
    Journal of marketing. 33:3 (1969:July) 46 
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  • 6
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    Dordrecht : Periodicals Archive Online (PAO)
    Theory and Decision. 20:2 (1986:Mar.) 133 
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  • 7
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    Chicago : Periodicals Archive Online (PAO)
    Journal of marketing research. 4:2 (1967:May) 117 
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Theory and decision 20 (1986), S. 133-154 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The dominant approach to decision analysis in particular, and quantitative research in general, issingular, i.e., all conclusions are based on a single preferred model or approach. Inplural analysis, several singular analyses are pursued in parallel, the typically conflicting results are merged. Although it is a central feature of intelligent everyday thinking, plural analysis has largely been ignored by the research community. This paper reports on an ongoing, multidisciplinary, research program, supported by the National Science Foundation and the Office of Naval Research, to establish guidelines, grounded in defensible theory, for designing a plural analysis strategy (where appropriate) and integrating the results of analysis.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 7 (1993), S. 215-235 
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: second order probability ; accceptable risk
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract When risk analysts and others refer to the “true” probability of an event, it is not easy to give it a meaning which is sound and useful as a communication device for regulatory, research planning, and related purposes. An interpretation is herein offered which, unlike Bayesian probability, is impersonal and does not depend on a particular assessor; unlike Carnap's “logical” probability, it does not depend on information actually to hand. It is a generalization of frequency and propensity interpretations of impersonal probability applicable to unique events: an ideal assessment based on currently accessible (not in general “perfect”) evidence. The argument is illustrated from decision-aiding experience which motivated the enquiry.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 19 (1989), S. 465-483 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Descriptive decision science says how peopledo make up their minds (e.g. as psychological and organizational theory). Normative decision science says howideal peoplewould make up their minds (e.g. as statistical decision theory). Prescriptive decision science (PDS) says how peopleshould make up their minds (including a distinctive fusion of the descriptive and normative). PDS supports the development and validation of decision-aiding technology, to make it appropriate for specific circumstances, balancing considerations of feasible input, useful output, logical coherence, and cost of implementation. The author argues for a major redirection of effort toward PDS by the decision science community, and suggests promising directions for its development with illustrations from his company's work.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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