ALBERT

Description: An unprecedentedly large ensemble of climate simulations with a 60-km atmospheric general circulation model and dynamical downscaling with a 20-km regional climate model has been performed to obtain probabilistic future projections of low-frequency local-scale events. The climate of the latter half of the twentieth century, the climate 4 K warmer than the preindustrial climate, and the climate of the latter half of the twentieth century without historical trends associated with the anthropogenic effect are each simulated for more than 5,000 years. From large ensemble simulations, probabilistic future changes in extreme events are available directly without using any statistical models. The atmospheric models are highly skillful in representing localized extreme events, such as heavy precipitation and tropical cyclones. Moreover, mean climate changes in the models are consistent with those in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensembles. Therefore, the results enable the assessment of probabilistic change in localized severe events that have large uncertainty from internal variability. The simulation outputs are open to the public as a database called “Database for Policy Decision Making for Future Climate Change” (d4PDF), which is intended to be utilized for impact assessment studies and adaptation planning for global warming.

Description: Vertical profiles of the aerosol physical and optical properties, with a focus on seasonal means and on transport events, were investigated in Tsukuba, Japan, by a synergistic remote sensing method that uses lidar and sky radiometer data. The retrieved aerosol vertical profiles of the springtime mean and five transport events were input to our developed one-dimensional atmospheric model, and the impacts of the aerosol vertical profiles on the evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) were studied by numerical sensitivity experiments. The characteristics of the aerosol vertical profiles in Tsukuba are as follows: (1) the retrieval results in the spring showed that aerosol optical thickness at 532 nm in the free atmosphere (FA) was 0.13, greater than 0.08 in the ABL owing to the frequent occurrence of transported aerosols in the FA. In other seasons, optical thickness in the FA was almost the same as that in the ABL. (2) The aerosol optical and physical properties in the ABL showed a dependency on the extinction coefficient. With an increase in the extinction coefficient from 0.00 to 0.24 km−1, the Ångström exponent increased from 0.0 to 2.0, the single-scattering albedo increased from 0.87 to 0.99, and the asymmetry factor decreased from 0.75 to 0.50. (3) The large variability in the physical and optical properties of aerosols in the FA were attributed to transport events, during which the transported aerosols consisted of varying amounts of dust and smoke particles depending on where they originated (China, Mongolia, or Russia). The results of the numerical sensitivity experiments using the aerosol vertical profiles of the springtime mean and five transport events in the FA are as follows: (1) numerical sensitivity experiments based on simulations conducted with and without aerosols showed that aerosols caused the net downward radiation and the sensible and latent heat fluxes at the surface to decrease. The decrease in temperature in the ABL (−0.2 to −0.6 K) and the direct heating of aerosols in the FA (0.0 to 0.4 K) strengthened the capping inversion around the top of the ABL. Consequently, the ABL height was decreased by 133 to 208 m in simulations with aerosols compared to simulations without aerosols. (2) We also conducted simulations in which all aerosols were compressed into the ABL but in which the columnar properties were the same and compared with the simulation results for uncompressed aerosol profiles. The results showed that the reductions in net downward radiation and in sensible and latent heat fluxes were the same in both types of simulations. However, the capping inversion in the simulations with compression was weakened owing to aerosol direct heating in the ABL and the lack of direct heating in the FA. This resulted in an increase in the ABL height, compared with that in the simulations without compression. (3) The dependencies of the 2 m temperature and ABL height on the optical thickness and Ångström exponent in the FA were investigated using the results of the numerical sensitivity tests. The 2 m temperature and ABL height was decreased with an increase in the optical thickness, and their reduction rates increase with a decrease in the Ångström exponent because the optical thickness in the near-infrared wavelength region was large when the Ångström exponent was small. However, there was a case in which the Ångström exponent was large but the decrease in the ABL height was the largest of all the simulation results. In this case, the strong capping inversion due to the large extinction coefficient around the top of the ABL was an import factor. These results suggest that the vertical profiles of the aerosol physical and optical properties, and the resulting direct heating has important effects on the ABL evolution.

Description: The SKYLIDAR algorithm was developed to estimate vertical profiles of aerosol optical properties from sky radiometer (SKYNET) and lidar (AD-Net) measurements. The solar heating rate was also estimated from the SKYLIDAR retrievals. The algorithm consists of two retrieval steps: (1) columnar properties are retrieved from the sky radiometer measurements and the vertically mean depolarization ratio obtained from the lidar measurements, and (2) vertical profiles are retrieved from the lidar measurements and the results of the first step. The derived parameters are the vertical profiles of the size distribution, refractive index (real and imaginary parts), extinction coefficient, single-scattering albedo, and asymmetry factor. Sensitivity tests were conducted by applying the SKYLIDAR algorithm to the simulated sky radiometer and lidar data for vertical profiles of three different aerosols, continental average, transported dust, and pollution aerosols. The vertical profiles of the size distribution, extinction coefficient, and asymmetry factor were well estimated in all cases. The vertical profiles of the refractive index and single-scattering albedo of transported dust were well estimated but not those of transported pollution aerosol. To demonstrate the performance and validity of the SKYLIDAR algorithm, we applied the SKYLIDAR algorithm to the actual measurements at Tsukuba, Japan. The detailed vertical structures of the aerosol optical properties and solar heating rate of transported dust and smoke were investigated. Examination of the relationship between the solar heating rate and the aerosol optical properties showed that the vertical profile of the asymmetry factor played an important role in creating vertical variation in the solar heating rate. We then compared the columnar optical properties between SKYLIDAR and SKYRAD.PACK retrievals, and the surface solar irradiance calculated from the SKYLIDAR retrievals was compared with pyranometer measurement. The results showed good agreements: The columnar values of the SKYLIDAR retrievals agreed with reliable SKYRAD.PACK retrievals, and the SKYLIDAR retrievals were sufficiently accurate to evaluate the surface solar irradiance.

Description: This study investigated the moderation of the urban heat island via changes in the urban form in the Tokyo metropolitan area (TMA). Two urban scenarios with the same population as that of the current urban form were used for sensitivity experiments: the dispersed-city and compact-city scenarios. Numerical experiments using the two urban scenarios as well as an experiment using the current urban form were conducted using a regional climate model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model. The averaged nighttime surface air temperature in TMA increased by ~0.34°C in the dispersed-city scenario and decreased by ~0.1°C in the compact-city scenario. Therefore, the compact-city scenario had significant potential for moderating the mean areal heat-island effect in the entire TMA. Alternatively, in the central part of the TMA, these two urban-form scenarios produced opposite effects on the surface air temperature; that is, severe thermal conditions worsened further in the compact-city scenario because of the denser population. This result suggests that the compact-city form is not always appropriate for moderation of the urban-heat-island effect. This scenario would need to combine with other mitigation strategies, such as the additional greening of urban areas, especially in the central area. This study suggests that it is important to design a plan to adapt to higher urban temperatures, which are likely to ensue from future global warming and the urban heat island, from several perspectives; that is, designs should take into account not only climatological aspects but also impacts on urban inhabitants.

Description: A single-layered square prism urban canopy (SPUC) scheme for the Japan Meteorological Agency nonhydrostatic model (NHM) was developed. This scheme considers the urban canopy layer with square prism–shaped buildings. The basic concept of this scheme is similar to those of the conventional energy balance models for an urban canyon structure. The scheme presented here differs slightly from them in its representation of the bulk resistance circuit and some treatments of radiation processes, however, as well as by considering the water reservoir on building surfaces. A comparison between the SPUC scheme and the existing slab scheme of the NHM was made on summer days in the Tokyo metropolitan area. The SPUC run more accurately reproduced the expected behavior of the urban canopy effect than did the slab run. The effective albedo was smaller in the SPUC run than in the slab run (the upward shortwave radiation of the SPUC run was smaller than that of the slab run). The forecast heat fluxes in the SPUC run, however, showed worse performances. Adequate parameter settings (especially concerning latent heat fluxes) are needed in the SPUC run. The mean bias errors of the surface air temperature during nighttime were less negative and slightly improved in the SPUC run than in the slab run.

Description: Vertical profiles of the aerosol physical and optical properties, with a focus on seasonal means and on transport events, were investigated in Tsukuba, Japan, by a synergistic remote sensing method that uses lidar and sky radiometer data. The retrieved aerosol vertical profiles were input into our developed one-dimensional atmospheric model, and the impacts of the aerosol vertical profiles on the evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) were studied by numerical sensitivity experiments. The retrieval results in the spring showed that aerosol optical thickness was greater in the free atmosphere (FA) than in the ABL owing to the frequent occurrence of transported aerosols in the FA. In other seasons, optical thickness in the FA was almost the same as that in the ABL. The aerosol optical and physical properties in the ABL showed a dependency on the extinction coefficient, whereas large variability in the physical and optical properties of aerosols in the FA were attributed to transport events, during which the transported aerosols consisted of varying amounts of dust and smoke particles depending on where they originated (China, Mongolia, or Russia). Numerical sensitivity experiments based on simulations conducted with and without aerosols showed that aerosols caused the net downward radiation and the sensible and latent heat fluxes at the surface to decrease. Direct heating of aerosols in the FA strengthened the capping inversion around the top of the ABL. Consequently, the ABL height was decreased in simulations with aerosols compared with simulations without aerosols. We also conducted simulations in which all aerosols were compressed into the ABL but in which the columnar properties were the same and compared with the simulation results for uncompressed aerosol profiles. The results showed that the reductions in net downward radiation and in sensible and latent heat fluxes were the same in both types of simulations, but in the simulations with compression the capping inversion was weakened owing to aerosol direct heating in the ABL, and as a result the ABL height was increased compared with that in the simulations without compression. These results suggest that the vertical profile of aerosol direct heating has important effects on the ABL evolution.

Description: The SKYLIDAR algorithm was developed to estimate vertical profiles of aerosol optical properties from sky radiometer (SKYNET) and lidar (AD-Net) measurements. The solar heating rate was also estimated from the SKYLIDAR retrievals. The algorithm consists of two retrieval steps: (1) columnar properties are retrieved from the sky radiometer measurements and the vertically mean depolarization ratio obtained from the lidar measurements and (2) vertical profiles are retrieved from the lidar measurements and the results of the first step. The derived parameters are the vertical profiles of the size distribution, refractive index (real and imaginary parts), extinction coefficient, single-scattering albedo, and asymmetry factor. Sensitivity tests were conducted by applying the SKYLIDAR algorithm to the simulated sky radiometer and lidar data for vertical profiles of three different aerosols, continental average, transported dust, and pollution aerosols. The vertical profiles of the size distribution, extinction coefficient, and asymmetry factor were well estimated in all cases. The vertical profiles of the refractive index and single-scattering albedo of transported dust, but not those of transported pollution aerosol, were well estimated. To demonstrate the performance and validity of the SKYLIDAR algorithm, we applied the SKYLIDAR algorithm to the actual measurements at Tsukuba, Japan. The detailed vertical structures of the aerosol optical properties and solar heating rate of transported dust and smoke were investigated. Examination of the relationship between the solar heating rate and the aerosol optical properties showed that the vertical profile of the asymmetry factor played an important role in creating vertical variation in the solar heating rate. We then compared the columnar optical properties retrieved with the SKYLIDAR algorithm to those produced with the more established scheme SKYRAD.PACK, and the surface solar irradiance calculated from the SKYLIDAR retrievals was compared with pyranometer measurement. The results showed good agreements: the columnar values of the SKYLIDAR retrievals agreed with reliable SKYRAD.PACK retrievals, and the SKYLIDAR retrievals were sufficiently accurate to evaluate the surface solar irradiance.