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  • 1
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    A stochastic bioenergetics model-based approach to translating large river flow and temperature into fish population responses: the pallid sturgeon example (2015)
    Geological Society (of London)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-05-30
    Description: In managing fish populations, especially at-risk species, realistic mathematical models are needed to help predict population response to potential management actions in the context of environmental conditions and changing climate while effectively incorporating the stochastic nature of real world conditions. We provide a key component of such a model for the endangered pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) in the form of an individual-based bioenergetics model influenced not only by temperature but also by flow. This component is based on modification of a known individual-based bioenergetics model through incorporation of: the observed ontogenetic shift in pallid sturgeon diet from marcroinvertebrates to fish; the energetic costs of swimming under flowing-water conditions; and stochasticity. We provide an assessment of how differences in environmental conditions could potentially alter pallid sturgeon growth estimates, using observed temperature and velocity from channelized portions of the Lower Missouri River mainstem. We do this using separate relationships between the proportion of maximum consumption and fork length and swimming cost standard error estimates for fish captured above and below the Kansas River in the Lower Missouri River. Critical to our matching observed growth in the field with predicted growth based on observed environmental conditions was a two-step shift in diet from macroinvertebrates to fish.
    Print ISSN: 0305-8719
    Electronic ISSN: 2041-4927
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Geological Society (of London)
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  • 2
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    Hierarchical stochastic modelling of large river ecosystems and fish growth across spatio-temporal scales and climate models: the Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example (2015)
    Geological Society (of London)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-10-14
    Description: We present a hierarchical series of spatially decreasing and temporally increasing models to evaluate the uncertainty in the atmosphere – ocean global climate model (AOGCM) and the regional climate model (RCM) relative to the uncertainty in the somatic growth of the endangered pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ). For effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate output simulated by coarse-resolution AOGCMs and RCMs must be downscaled to basins to river hydrology to population response. One needs to transfer the information from these climate simulations down to the individual scale in a way that minimizes extrapolation and can account for spatio-temporal variability in the intervening stages. The goal is a framework to determine whether, given uncertainties in the climate models and the biological response, meaningful inference can still be made. The non-linear downscaling of climate information to the river scale requires that one realistically account for spatial and temporal variability across scale. Our downscaling procedure includes the use of fixed/calibrated hydrological flow and temperature models coupled with a stochastically parameterized sturgeon bioenergetics model. We show that, although there is a large amount of uncertainty associated with both the climate model output and the fish growth process, one can establish significant differences in fish growth distributions between models, and between future and current climates for a given model.
    Print ISSN: 0305-8719
    Electronic ISSN: 2041-4927
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Geological Society (of London)
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  • 3
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    A stochastic bioenergetics model-based approach to translating large river flow and temperature into fish population responses: the pallid sturgeon example (2015)
    Geological Society (of London)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-10-14
    Description: In managing fish populations, especially at-risk species, realistic mathematical models are needed to help predict population response to potential management actions in the context of environmental conditions and changing climate while effectively incorporating the stochastic nature of real world conditions. We provide a key component of such a model for the endangered pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) in the form of an individual-based bioenergetics model influenced not only by temperature but also by flow. This component is based on modification of a known individual-based bioenergetics model through incorporation of: the observed ontogenetic shift in pallid sturgeon diet from marcroinvertebrates to fish; the energetic costs of swimming under flowing-water conditions; and stochasticity. We provide an assessment of how differences in environmental conditions could potentially alter pallid sturgeon growth estimates, using observed temperature and velocity from channelized portions of the Lower Missouri River mainstem. We do this using separate relationships between the proportion of maximum consumption and fork length and swimming cost standard error estimates for fish captured above and below the Kansas River in the Lower Missouri River. Critical to our matching observed growth in the field with predicted growth based on observed environmental conditions was a two-step shift in diet from macroinvertebrates to fish.
    Print ISSN: 0305-8719
    Electronic ISSN: 2041-4927
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Geological Society (of London)
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  • 4
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    A stochastic bioenergetics model-based approach to translating large river flow and temperature into fish population responses: the pallid sturgeon example (2016)
    Geological Society (of London)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-03-12
    Description: In managing fish populations, especially at-risk species, realistic mathematical models are needed to help predict population response to potential management actions in the context of environmental conditions and changing climate while effectively incorporating the stochastic nature of real world conditions. We provide a key component of such a model for the endangered pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) in the form of an individual-based bioenergetics model influenced not only by temperature but also by flow. This component is based on modification of a known individual-based bioenergetics model through incorporation of: the observed ontogenetic shift in pallid sturgeon diet from marcroinvertebrates to fish; the energetic costs of swimming under flowing-water conditions; and stochasticity. We provide an assessment of how differences in environmental conditions could potentially alter pallid sturgeon growth estimates, using observed temperature and velocity from channelized portions of the Lower Missouri River mainstem. We do this using separate relationships between the proportion of maximum consumption and fork length and swimming cost standard error estimates for fish captured above and below the Kansas River in the Lower Missouri River. Critical to our matching observed growth in the field with predicted growth based on observed environmental conditions was a two-step shift in diet from macroinvertebrates to fish.
    Print ISSN: 0305-8719
    Electronic ISSN: 2041-4927
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Geological Society (of London)
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  • 5
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    A dimension-reduced approach to space-time Kalman filtering (1999)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 1999-12-01
    Print ISSN: 0006-3444
    Electronic ISSN: 1464-3510
    Topics: Biology , Mathematics , Medicine
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 6
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    A Bayesian parameter estimation method applied to a marine ecosystem model for the coastal Gulf of Alaska (2013)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2013-06-01
    Print ISSN: 0304-3800
    Electronic ISSN: 1872-7026
    Topics: Biology
    Published by Elsevier
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  • 7
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    Modeling 3-D spatio-temporal biogeochemical processes with a forest of 1-D statistical emulators (2012)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-12-17
    Print ISSN: 1180-4009
    Electronic ISSN: 1099-095X
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Published by Wiley
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  • 8
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    Interpolating Fields of Carbon Monoxide Data Using a Hybrid Statistical-Physical Model (2008)
    In:  Other Sources
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-19
    Description: Atmospheric Carbon Monoxide (CO) is a pollutant gas of which the US congress has mandated regular monitoring, and satellite sensors can be used to retrieve regional concentrations of CO over several vertical layers. However, CO at cloudy locations cannot be observed and have to be estimated from the observed data set, resulting in an interpolation problem. The current state-of-the-art solution is to combine prior information, computed by a deterministic physical model, with observations. However, the deterministic model may introduce uncertainties that do not derive from the data. While sharing certain features with the physical model, this paper presents a Bayesian hierarchical model for interpolating CO on a 3-dimensional spatial grid, across time. To our knowledge such a model has not been considered before. The model is applied to a hypothetical air-quality monitoring scenario, and is compared to existing interpolation methods. The results provide motivation for the use of the statistical model for regional to local applications.
    Keywords: Statistics and Probability
    Type: Annals of Applied Statistics; 2; 4; 1231-1248
    Format: text
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    NASA TECHNICAL REPORTS
  • 9
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    Ocean Ensemble Forecasting, Part I: Ensemble Mediterranean Winds from a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: A Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) is developed to estimate surface vector wind fields (SVW), and associated uncertainties, over the Mediterranean Sea. The BHM-SVW incorporates data-stage inputs from analyses and forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and from the QuikSCAT data record. The process model stage of the BHM-SVW is based on a Rayleigh Friction Equation model for surface winds. Dynamical interpretations of posterior distributions of the BHM-SVW parameters are discussed. Ten realizations from the posterior distribution the BHM-SVW are used to force the data assimilation step of an experimental ensemble ocean forecast system for the Mediterranean Sea in order to create a set of ensemble initial conditions. Ensemble initial condition spread is quantified by computing standard deviations of ocean state variable fields over the 10 ensemble members, driven by 10 realizations from the BHM-SVW posterior distribution over a 14-day sequential data assimilation period. Ensemble spread occurs on mesoscale time and space scales, in close association with strong synoptic scale wind forcing events. A companion paper compares the performance of the MFS ensemble forecasts given initial condition generation and forecast forcing from the BHM-SVW, with forecasts based on more traditional methods of ensemble generation
    Description: Submitted
    Description: 1.8. Osservazioni di geofisica ambientale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Bayesian Hierarchical Model ; Mediterranean Sea ; Ensemble Forecasting ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.05. Operational oceanography
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: manuscript
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  • 10
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    Ocean Ensemble Forecasting, Part II: Mediterranean Forecast System Response (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: This paper analyzes the ocean forecast response to surface vector wind (SVW) distributions generated by a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) developed in Part I (Milliff et al., 2009). A new method for Ocean Ensemble Forecasting (OEF), so-called BHM-SVW-OEF, is described. BHM-SVW realizations are used to produce and force perturbations in the ocean state during 14-day analysis and 10-day forecast cycles of the Mediterranean Forecast System (MFS). The BHM-SVW-OEF ocean response spread is amplified at the mesoscales and pycnocline of the eddy field. The new method is compared to an ensemble response forced by ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EEPS) surface winds, and to an ensemble forecast started from perturbed initial conditions derived from an ad hoc Thermocline Intensified Random Perturbation (TIRP) method. The EEPS-OEF shows spread at the basin scales while the TIRP-OEF response is mesoscale intensified as in the BHM-SVW-OEF response. TIRP-OEF perturbations fill more of the MFS domain while the BHM-SVW-OEF perturbations are more location-specific, concentrating ensemble spread at the sites where the ocean model response to uncertainty in the surface wind forcing is largest. The BHM-SVW-OEF method offers a practical and objective means for producing short-term forecast spread by modeling surface atmospheric forcing uncertainties that have maximum impact at the ocean mesoscales.
    Description: Submitted
    Description: 3.8. Geofisica per l'ambiente
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Ocean Ensemble Forecasting ; Ensemble Perturbations ; Forecast Spread ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.04. Ocean data assimilation and reanalysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: manuscript
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