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  • 1
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    The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) (2021)
    Frontiers
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-08
    Description: The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models’ weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH 〉5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH 〉3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH 〉1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.
    Description: The NEAMTHM18 was prepared in the framework of the European Project TSUMAPS-NEAM (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/) funded by the mechanism of the European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations with grant no. ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26 (https://ec.europa.eu/echo/funding-evaluations/financing-civil-protection-europe/selected-projects/probabilistic-tsunami-hazard_en). The work by INGV authors also benefitted from funding by the INGV-DPC Agreement 2012-2021 (Annex B2).
    Description: Published
    Description: 616594
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: 1SR TERREMOTI - Sorveglianza Sismica e Allerta Tsunami
    Description: 2SR TERREMOTI - Gestione delle emergenze sismiche e da maremoto
    Description: 3SR TERREMOTI - Attività dei Centri
    Description: 5SR TERREMOTI - Convenzioni derivanti dall'Accordo Quadro decennale INGV-DPC
    Description: 3IT. Calcolo scientifico
    Description: 4IT. Banche dati
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment ; earthquake-generated tsunami ; hazard uncertainty analysis ; ensemble modeling ; maximum inundation height ; NEAM ; 05.08. Risk ; 03.02. Hydrology ; 04.06. Seismology ; 04.07. Tectonophysics ; 05.01. Computational geophysics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources (2018)
    The Geological Society of London
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-11-20
    Description: Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.
    Description: Published
    Description: 219-244
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 3
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    A study of regional waveform calibration in the eastern Mediterranean (2006)
    AGU
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We modeled Pnl phases from several moderate magnitude earthquakes in the eastern Mediterranean to test methods and develop path calibrations for determining source parameters. The study region, which extends from the eastern part of the Hellenic arc to the eastern Anatolian fault, is dominated by moderate earthquakes that can produce significant damage. Our results are useful for analyzing regional seismicity as well as seismic hazard, because very few broadband seismic stations are available in the selected area. For the whole region we have obtained a single velocity model characterized by a 30 km thick crust, low upper mantle velocities and a very thin lid overlaying a distinct low velocity layer. Our preferred model proved quite reliable for determining focal mechanism and seismic moment across the entire range of selected paths. The source depth is also well constrained, especially for moderate earthquakes.
    Description: Published
    Description: N/A or not JCR
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Body wave propagation ; earthquake parameters ; lithosphere ; upper-mantle ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Format: 690519 bytes
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 4
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    NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18): online data of the Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Model for the NEAM Region from the TSUMAPS-NEAM project (2019)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-10-01
    Description: European-Union Civil Protection Mechanism, DG-ECHO, Agreement Number: ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26
    Description: Published
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: 1SR TERREMOTI - Sorveglianza Sismica e Allerta Tsunami
    Description: 2SR TERREMOTI - Gestione delle emergenze sismiche e da maremoto
    Description: 4IT. Banche dati
    Keywords: Europe ; NEAM ; Atlantic Ocean ; Mediterranean Sea ; Aegean Sea ; Marmara Sea ; Black Sea ; earthquake ; tsunami ; moment magnitude ; crustal fault ; subduction interface ; megathrust ; probabilistic hazard model ; natural hazard ; Disaster Risk Reduction ; 05.08. Risk ; 04.06. Seismology ; 03.02. Hydrology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: web product
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  • 5
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    Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Multiple Sources and Global Applications (2018)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-03-15
    Description: Applying probabilistic methods to infrequent but devastating natural events is intrinsically challenging. For tsunami analyses, a suite of geophysical assessments should be in principle evaluated because of the different causes generating tsunamis (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic activity, meteorological events, and asteroid impacts) with varying mean recurrence rates. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analyses (PTHAs) are conducted in different areas of the world at global, regional, and local scales with the aim of understanding tsunami hazard to inform tsunami risk reduction activities. PTHAs enhance knowledge of the potential tsunamigenic threat by estimating the probability of exceeding specific levels of tsunami intensity metrics (e.g., run-up or maximum inundation heights) within a certain period of time (exposure time) at given locations (target sites); these estimates can be summarized in hazard maps or hazard curves. This discussion presents a broad overview of PTHA, including (i) sources and mechanisms of tsunami generation, emphasizing the variety and complexity of the tsunami sources and their generation mechanisms, (ii) developments in modeling the propagation and impact of tsunami waves, and (iii) statistical procedures for tsunami hazard estimates that include the associated epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. Key elements in understanding the potential tsunami hazard are discussed, in light of the rapid development of PTHA methods during the last decade and the globally distributed applications, including the importance of considering multiple sources, their relative intensities, probabilities of occurrence, and uncertainties in an integrated and consistent probabilistic framework.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1158–1198
    Description: 5T. Modelli di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
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    NEAMTHM18 Documentation: the making of the TSUMAPS-NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (2019)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-East Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected Seas (NEAM). In this online data product, the hazard results are provided by hazard curves calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI), distributed in the North-East Atlantic (1,076 POIs), the Mediterranean Sea (1,130 POIs), and the Black Sea (137 POIs) at an average spacing of ~20 km. For each POI, hazard curves are given for the mean, 2nd, 16th, 50th, 84th, and 98th percentiles. Maps derived from hazard curves are Probability maps for Maximum Inundation Heights (MIH) of 1, 2, 5, 10, 20 meters; Hazard maps for Average Return Periods (ARP) of 500, 1,000, 2,500, 5,000, 10,000 years. For each map, precalculated displays are provided for the mean, the 16th percentile, and the 84th percentile. All data are also made accessible through an interactive web mapper and through Open Geospatial Consortium standard protocols. The model was prepared in the framework of the European Project TSUMAPS-NEAM (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/) funded by the mechanism of the European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (grant no. ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26).
    Description: European-Union Civil Protection Mechanism, DG-ECHO, Agreement Number ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26
    Description: Published
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: 1SR TERREMOTI - Sorveglianza Sismica e Allerta Tsunami
    Description: 2SR TERREMOTI - Gestione delle emergenze sismiche e da maremoto
    Keywords: Europe ; NEAM ; Atlantic Ocean ; Mediterranean Sea ; Aegean Sea ; Marmara Sea ; Black Sea ; earthquake ; tsunami ; moment magnitude ; crustal fault ; subduction interface ; megathrust ; probabilistic hazard model ; natural hazard ; Disaster Risk Reduction ; 05.08. Risk ; 04.06. Seismology ; 03.02. Hydrology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: report
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  • 7
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    Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps (2021)
    Frontiers Media S.A.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-12-14
    Description: Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach.
    Description: Published
    Description: 628772
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 8
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    Effect of tectonic setting on the fit and performance of a long-range earthquake forecasting model (2012)
    PAGEPress
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-02-22
    Description: The Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale (EEPAS) long-range earthquake forecasting model has been shown to be informative in several seismically active regions, including New Zealand, California and Japan. In previous applications of the model, the tectonic setting of earthquakes has been ignored. Here we distinguish crustal, plate interface, and slab earthquakes and apply the model to earthquakes with magnitude M≥4 in the Japan region from 1926 onwards. The target magnitude range is M≥ 6; the fitting period is 1966-1995; and the testing period is 1996-2005. In forecasting major slab earthquakes, it is optimal to use only slab and interface events as precursors. In forecasting major interface events, it is optimal to use only interface events as precursors. In forecasting major crustal events, it is optimal to use only crustal events as precursors. For the smoothed-seismicity component of the EEPAS model, it is optimal to use slab and interface events for earthquakes in the slab, interface events only for earthquakes on the interface, and crustal and interface events for crustal earthquakes. The optimal model parameters indicate that the precursor areas for slab earthquakes are relatively small compared to those for earthquakes in other tectonic categories, and that the precursor times and precursory earthquake magnitudes for crustal earthquakes are relatively large. The optimal models fit the learning data sets better than the raw EEPAS model, with an average information gain per earthquake of about 0.4. The average information gain is similar in the testing period, although it is higher for crustal earthquakes and lower for slab and interface earthquakes than in the learning period. These results show that earthquake interactions are stronger between earthquakes of similar tectonic types and that distinguishing tectonic types improves forecasts by enhancing the depth resolution where tectonic categories of earthquakes are vertically separated. However, when depth resolution is ignored, the model formed by aggregating the optimal forecasts for each tectonic category performs no better than the raw EEPAS model.
    Electronic ISSN: 2038-9663
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by PAGEPress
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  • 9
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    PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF STRONG GROUND MOTION AND TSUNAMI HAZARDS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA (2007)
    World Scientific Publishing
    Details
    Publication Date: 2007-06-01
    Description: The December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake emphasized the need for a consistent and comprehensive assessment of tsunami hazard. We have developed a method for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) based on the traditional Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) and therefore completely consistent with standard seismic practice. In lieu of attenuation relations, it uses the summation of finite-difference Green's functions that have been pre-computed for individual subfaults, which enables us to rapidly construct scenario tsunami waveforms from an aggregate of subfaults that comprise a single large event. For every fault system, it is then possible to integrate over sets of thousands of events within a certain magnitude range that represents a fully probabilistic distribution. Because of the enclosed nature of ports and harbors, effects of resonance need to be addressed as well, which is why we have extended this method to not only analyze exceedance levels of maximum wave height, but also of spectral amplitudes. As in PSHA, these spectral amplitudes can be matched with the spectral response of harbors, and thus allow a comprehensive probabilistic analysis of tsunami hazard in ports and harbors.
    Print ISSN: 1793-4311
    Electronic ISSN: 1793-7116
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by World Scientific Publishing
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  • 10
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    Seismic source and structure estimation in the western Mediterranean using a sparse broadband network (1999)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 1999-01-10
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Electronic ISSN: 2156-2202
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by American Geophysical Union
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