Publication Date:
2021-08-24
Description:
As the global environmental crisis grows in scale and complexity, conservation
professionals and policymakers are increasingly called upon to make decisions despite
high levels of uncertainty, limited resources, and insufficient data. Global efforts to
protect biodiversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction require substantial international
cooperation and negotiation, both of which are characterized by unpredictability and
high levels of uncertainty. Here we build on recent studies to adapt forecasting
techniques from the fields of hazard prediction, risk assessment, and intelligence
analysis to forecast the likelihood of marine protected area (MPA) designation in the
Southern Ocean. We used two questionnaires, feedback, and a discussion round
in a Delphi-style format expert elicitation to obtain forecasts, and collected data on
specific biophysical, socioeconomic, geopolitical, and scientific factors to assess how
they shape and influence these forecasts. We found that areas further north along the
Western Antarctic Peninsula were considered to be less likely to be designated than
areas further south, and that geopolitical factors, such as global politics or events, and
socioeconomic factors, such as the presence of fisheries, were the key determinants of
whether an area was predicted to be more or less likely to be designated as an MPA.
Forecasting techniques can be used to inform protected area design, negotiation, and
implementation in highly politicized situations where data is lacking by aiding with spatial
prioritization, targeting scarce resources, and predicting the success of various spatial
arrangements, interventions, or courses of action.
Repository Name:
EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
Type:
Article
,
isiRev
Format:
application/pdf
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