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  • 1
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    Real-Time Flood Forecasting and Information System for the State of Iowa (2017)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-03-01
    Description: The Iowa Flood Center (IFC), established following the 2008 record floods, has developed a real-time flood forecasting and information dissemination system for use by all Iowans. The system complements the operational forecasting issued by the National Weather Service, is based on sound scientific principles of flood genesis and spatial organization, and includes many technological advances. At its core is a continuous rainfall–runoff model based on landscape decomposition into hillslopes and channel links. Rainfall conversion to runoff is modeled through soil moisture accounting at hillslopes. Channel routing is based on a nonlinear representation of water velocity that considers the discharge amount as well as the upstream drainage area. Mathematically, the model represents a large system of ordinary differential equations organized to follow river network topology. The IFC also developed an efficient numerical solver suitable for high-performance computing architecture. The solver allows the IFC to update forecasts every 15 min for over 1,000 Iowa communities. The input to the system comes from a radar-rainfall algorithm, developed in-house, that maps rainfall every 5 min with high spatial resolution. The algorithm uses Level II radar reflectivity and other polarimetric data from the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Dual-Polarimetric (WSR-88DP) radar network. A large library of flood inundation maps and real-time river stage data from over 200 IFC “stream-stage sensors” complement the IFC information system. The system communicates all this information to the general public through a comprehensive browser-based and interactive platform. Streamflow forecasts and observations from Iowa can provide support for a similar system being developed at the National Water Center through model intercomparisons, diagnostic analyses, and product evaluations.
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0477
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 2
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    A Spatial–Dynamical Framework for Evaluation of Satellite Rainfall Products for Flood Prediction (2016)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2016-08-01
    Description: Rainfall maps that are derived from satellite observations provide hydrologists with an unprecedented opportunity to forecast floods globally. However, the limitations of using these precipitation estimates with respect to producing reliable flood forecasts at multiple scales are not well understood. To address the scientific and practical question of applicability of space-based rainfall products for global flood forecasting, a data evaluation framework is developed that allows tracking the rainfall effects in space and time across scales in the river network. This provides insights on the effects of rainfall product resolution and uncertainty. Obtaining such insights is not possible when the hydrologic evaluation is based on discharge observations from single gauges. The proposed framework also explores the ability of hydrologic model structure to answer questions pertaining to the utility of space-based rainfall observations for flood forecasting. To illustrate the framework, hydrometeorological data collected during the Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS) campaign in Iowa are used to perform a hydrologic simulation using two different rainfall–runoff model structures and three rainfall products, two of which are radar based [stage IV and Iowa Flood Center (IFC)] and one satellite based [TMPA–Research Version (RV)]. This allows for exploring the differences in rainfall estimates at several spatial and temporal scales and provides improved understanding of how these differences affect flood predictions at multiple basin scales. The framework allows for exploring the differences in peak flow estimation due to nonlinearities in the hydrologic model structure and determining how these differences behave with an increase in the upstream area through the drainage network. The framework provides an alternative evaluation of precipitation estimates, based on the diagnostics of hydrological model results.
    Print ISSN: 1525-755X
    Electronic ISSN: 1525-7541
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 3
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    Analysis of National Weather Service Stage Forecast Errors (2017)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2017-07-07
    Description: This paper explores the skill of river stage forecasts produced by the National Weather Service (NWS). Despite the importance of the verification process in establishing a reference that allows advancement in river forecast technology, there is relatively little literature on this topic. This study aims to contribute to this subject. The study analyzed the North Central River Forecast Center’s river stage forecasts for 51 gauges in eastern and central Iowa between 1999 and 2014. The authors explored forecast skill dependence characteristics such as upstream area, water travel time, and the number of gauges located upstream of each forecasting point. They also assessed the influence of rainfall uncertainty on stage error by examining the relationship between the forecast skill and its antecedent 24-h observed rainfall. The results show that when using persistence as a reference for comparison with NWS actual forecasts, the NWS forecasts are better for predictions below and above flood stage. The difference in root-mean-square error (RMSE) between the actual and persistence forecasts ranges between 0.04 and 1.24 ft, and it increases with lead time. Locations with fewer upstream gauges exhibit greater variation in forecast skill than locations that are well gauged, especially at high flood levels. Strong predictive relationships between the physical characteristics of a basin (travel time, upstream drainage area), rainfall quantities, and forecast skill have not been identified.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 4
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    Comprehensive Evaluation of the IFloodS Radar Rainfall Products for Hydrologic Applications (2018)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-11-01
    Description: This study describes the generation and testing of a reference rainfall product created from field campaign datasets collected during the NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission Ground Validation Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS) experiment. The study evaluates ground-based radar rainfall (RR) products acquired during IFloodS in the context of building the reference rainfall product. The purpose of IFloodS was not only to attain a high-quality ground-based reference for the validation of satellite rainfall estimates but also to enhance understanding of flood-related rainfall processes and the predictability of flood forecasting. We assessed the six RR estimates (IFC, Q2, CSU-DP, NWS-DP, Stage IV, and Q2-Corrected) using data from rain gauge and disdrometer networks that were located in the broader field campaign area of central and northeastern Iowa. We performed the analyses with respect to time scales ranging from 1 h to the entire campaign period in order to compare the capabilities of each RR product and to characterize the error structure at scales that are frequently used in hydrologic applications. The evaluation results show that the Stage IV estimates perform superior to other estimates, demonstrating the need for gauge-based bias corrections of radar-only products. This correction should account for each product’s algorithm-dependent error structure that can be used to build unbiased rainfall products for the campaign reference. We characterized the statistical error structures (e.g., systematic and random components) of each RR estimate and used them for the generation of a campaign reference rainfall product. To assess the hydrologic utility of the reference product, we performed hydrologic simulations driven by the reference product over the Turkey River basin. The comparison of hydrologic simulation results demonstrates that the campaign reference product performs better than Stage IV in streamflow generation.
    Print ISSN: 1525-755X
    Electronic ISSN: 1525-7541
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 5
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    High-Resolution QPF Uncertainty and Its Implications for Flood Prediction: A Case Study for the Eastern Iowa Flood of 2016 (2018)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-08-01
    Description: This study addresses the uncertainty of High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), which were recently appended to the operational hydrologic forecasting framework. In this study, we examine the uncertainty features of HRRR QPFs for an Iowa flooding event that occurred in September 2016. Our evaluation of HRRR QPFs is based on the conventional approach of QPF verification and the analysis of mean areal precipitation (MAP) with respect to forecast lead time. The QPF verification results show that the precipitation forecast skill of HRRR significantly drops during short lead times and then gradually decreases for further lead times. The MAP analysis also demonstrates that the QPF error sharply increases during short lead times and starts decreasing slightly beyond 4-h lead time. We found that the variability of QPF error measured in terms of MAP decreases as basin scale and lead time become larger and longer, respectively. The effects of QPF uncertainty on hydrologic prediction are quantified through the hillslope-link model (HLM) simulations using hydrologic performance metrics (e.g., Kling–Gupta efficiency). The simulation results agree to some degree with those from the MAP analysis, finding that the performance achieved from the QPF forcing decreases during 1–3-h lead times and starts increasing with 4–6-h lead times. The best performance acquired at the 1-h lead time does not seem acceptable because of the large overestimation of the flood peak, along with an erroneous early peak that is not observed in streamflow observations. This study provides further evidence that HRRR contains a well-known weakness at short lead times, and the QPF uncertainty (e.g., bias) described as a function of forecast lead times should be corrected before its use in hydrologic prediction.
    Print ISSN: 1525-755X
    Electronic ISSN: 1525-7541
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 6
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    Streamflow Forecasting without Models (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-07-22
    Description: The authors explore persistence in streamflow forecasting based on the real-time streamflow observations. They use 15-min streamflow observations from the years 2002 to 2018 at 140 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gauges monitoring the streams and rivers throughout Iowa. The spatial scale of the basins ranges from about 7 to 37 000 km2. Motivated by the need for evaluating the skill of real-time streamflow forecasting systems, the authors perform quantitative skill assessment of persistence schemes across spatial scales and lead times. They show that skill in temporal persistence forecasting has a strong dependence on basin size, and a weaker dependence on geometric properties of the river networks. Building on results from this temporal persistence, they extend the streamflow persistence forecasting to space through flow-connected river networks. The approach simply assumes that streamflow at a station in space will persist to another station which is flow connected; these are referred to as pure spatial persistence forecasts (PSPF). The authors show that skill of PSPF of streamflow is strongly dependent on the monitored versus predicted basin area ratio and lead times, and weakly related to the downstream flow distance between stations. River network topology shows some effect on the hydrograph timing and timing of the peaks, depending on the stream gauge configuration. The study shows that the skill depicted in terms of Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) 〉 0.5 can be achieved for basin area ratio 〉 0.6 and lead time up to 3 days. The authors discuss the implications of their findings for assessment and improvements of rainfall–runoff models, data assimilation schemes, and stream gauging network design.
    Print ISSN: 1525-755X
    Electronic ISSN: 1525-7541
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 7
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    Analysis of Stage–Discharge Relationship Stability Based on Historical Ratings (2020)
    Molecular Diversity Preservation International
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-06-06
    Description: We explored the stability of the rating curves at six streamflow gauging sites in the state of Iowa, USA, to examine temporal variability of their stage–discharge relationships. The analyzed sites have up to 10 years of rating and shift records. Rating curve shifts reflect the alteration of channel geometry caused by scouring and sediment deposition. We studied how rating shifts are connected to the occurrence of flood events and drought periods over time. We found that most rating curve changes take place during spring and summer, which are the seasons with more precipitation in Iowa. We quantified stability in terms of standard deviation of stages for a continuous range of discharges in a rating curve, and show that most of the sites exhibit greater standard stage deviation for discharge–flood ratios smaller than 1, while for larger discharge–flood ratios, the deviation decreases. In stable rating curves, the stage deviation tends to decrease as discharge increases. Non-stable rating curves exhibit large stage deviation in the stage–discharge relationship throughout all stages.
    Electronic ISSN: 2306-5338
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Published by Molecular Diversity Preservation International
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  • 8
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    Streamflow Predictions in a Small Urban–Rural Watershed: The Effects of Radar Rainfall Resolution and Urban Rainfall–Runoff Dynamics (2020)
    Molecular Diversity Preservation International
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-07-23
    Description: The authors predicted streamflow in an urban–rural watershed using a nested regional–local modeling approach for the community of Manchester, Iowa, which is downstream of a largely rural watershed. The nested model coupled the hillslope-link model (HLM), used to simulate the upstream rural basins, and XPSWMM, which was used to simulate the more complex rainfall–runoff dynamics and surface and subsurface drainage in the urban areas, making it capable of producing flood maps at the street level. By integrating these models built for different purposes, we enabled fast and accurate simulation of hydrological processes in the rural basins while also modeling the flows in an urban environment. Using the model, we investigated how the spatial and temporal resolution of radar rainfall inputs can affect the modeled streamflow. We used a combination of three radar rainfall products to capture the uncertainty of rainfall estimation in the model results. Our nested model was able to simulate the hydrographs and timing and duration above the threshold known to result in nuisance flooding in Manchester. The spatiotemporal resolution the radar rainfall input to the model impacted the streamflow outputs of the regional, local, and nested models differently depending on the storm event.
    Electronic ISSN: 2073-4433
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Molecular Diversity Preservation International
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  • 9
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    Examining Observed Rainfall, Soil Moisture, and River Network Variabilities on Peak Flow Scaling of Rainfall‐Runoff Events with Implications on Regionalization of Peak Flow Quantiles (2019)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-12-01
    Print ISSN: 0043-1397
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-7973
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Published by American Geophysical Union
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  • 10
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    Assessment of Changes in Flood Frequency Due to the Effects of Climate Change: Implications for Engineering Design (2018)
    Molecular Diversity Preservation International
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-03-03
    Electronic ISSN: 2306-5338
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Published by Molecular Diversity Preservation International
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