ISSN:
1572-9982
Source:
Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
Topics:
Economics
Notes:
Summary In the article an attempt is made to throw some light on the role of uncertainty in making investment decisions. At first a critical analysis is given of the present value method and some other conventional rules of thumb. As the discounting process needs a unique income stream, which is not available, the present value method must be rejected. The expected value of the possible income streams cannot be regarded as an adequate solution for this problem. Moreover it is quite impossible to choosethe appropriate discount rate: in case uncertainty is involved, an objective discount rate must be considered as non-existing. With respect to the rules of thumb such as the maximin criterion of gain, it is also to be concluded, that subjectivity plays a key role. The use of a cardinal utility function in determining investment volume demonstrates once more, how important the subjective element is in the theory of investment. Apart from examining several proposed decision criteria the author is considering, how the entrepreneur arrives at the probability judgment concerning the possible outcomes of the project. For this purpose the theory, developed by Fellner, in which subjective and objective (based on frequency observations) probability judgments are blended, is critically analysed.
Type of Medium:
Electronic Resource
URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02366902
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