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  • 1
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    Assessing risks for integrated water resource management: coping with uncertainty and the human factor (2014)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-09-16
    Description: Risk assessment for water resource planning must deal with the uncertainty associated with excess/scarcity situations and their costs. The projected actions for increasing water security usually involve an indirect "call-effect": the territory occupation/water use is increased following the achieved protection. In this work, flood and water demand in a mountainous semi-arid watershed in southern Spain are assessed by means of the stochastic simulation of extremes, when this human factor is/is not considered. The results show how not including this call-effect induced an underestimation of flood risk after protecting the floodplain of between 35 and 78 % in a 35-year planning horizon. Similarly, the pursued water availability of a new reservoir resulted in a 10-year scarcity risk increase up to 38 % when the trend of expanding the irrigated area was included in the simulations. These results highlight the need for including this interaction in the decision-making assessment.
    Print ISSN: 2199-8981
    Electronic ISSN: 2199-899X
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of International Association of Hydrological Sciences.
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  • 2
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    Development of a management tool for reservoirs in Mediterranean environments based on uncertainty analysis (2012)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-05-29
    Description: In compliance with the development of the Water Framework Directive, there is a need for an integrated management of water resources, which involves the elaboration of reservoir management models. These models should include the operational and technical aspects which allow us to forecast an optimal management in the short term, besides the factors that may affect the volume of water stored in the medium and long term. The climate fluctuations of the water cycle that affect the reservoir watershed should be considered, as well as the social and economic aspects of the area. This paper shows the development of a management model for Rules reservoir (southern Spain), through which the water supply is regulated based on set criteria, in a sustainable way with existing commitments downstream, with the supply capacity being well established depending on demand, and the probability of failure when the operating requirements are not fulfilled. The results obtained allowed us: to find out the reservoir response at different time scales, to introduce an uncertainty analysis and to demonstrate the potential of the methodology proposed here as a tool for decision making.
    Print ISSN: 1561-8633
    Electronic ISSN: 1684-9981
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 3
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    Operationality forecast of Run-of-River hydroelectric plants using stochastic flow analysis (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-07-11
    Description: The highly temporal variability of hydrological response in Mediterranean areas affects the operation of hydropower systems, especially in Run-of-River plants located in mountainous areas, where the water flow regime strongly determines the failure, defined as no operating days due to either, flows below the turbine minimum discharge and environmental flow requirements, or flows above the turbine maximum discharge. A Bayesian dynamics forecast model is developed from statistical modelling of both, forcing agents of runoff generation, and water inputs to the plants, as dependent variable. Failure frequency analysis and its related operationality, along with their uncertainty associated at different time scales is carried out through the Monte Carlo 250 stochastic replications of the 20-year period of forcing agents. Finally, a tool for forecasting the occurrence of failure from 1 to 7 months ahead is developed that allows to analyse different scenarios of storage in the plant loading chamber. The approach is applied to mini-hydropower plants in Poqueira (Southern Spain), where the snow and rainfall regimes determine the hydrological regime.Results revealed the snow influence as the lowest probability of failure was found in April and May when snowmelt is outstanding. Regarding the forecast tool, the analysis of different scenarios successfully reflected the decrease of the probability of failure on a monthly scale with greater stored water volumes, while on a weekly scale the improvement is only appreciable in the dry season (June-October) when the snow influence is negligible.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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