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  • 1
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    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Publication Date: 2023-07-18
    Description: We extended a recently developed index of accumulated severe winter weather for stations in the United States only to the entire Northern Hemisphere. Utilizing this index of severe winter weather, we explore the relationship of Arctic temperatures and geopotential heights with the probability of severe winter weather across the mid-latitudes. This index shows a direct and linear relationship between Arctic temperatures and severe winter weather across the mid-latitudes. We also explore trends and identify those regions where the Arctic warming trend could be contributing to an increase in severe winter weather which is superimposed on the overall global warming trend. Besides focusing on pan-Arctic trends we also identify the relationship between regional Arctic temperatures with more regionalized severe winter weather. We also analyze the relationship between polar vortex variability and the occurrence of severe winter weather in Europe, Asia and North America.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 2
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    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Publication Date: 2023-07-13
    Description: Improving our ability to forecast the weather and climate is of interest to all sectors of the economy and government agencies. However, accurate forecasts for the subseasonal regime are lacking due to the chaotic nature of the weather. We have recently developed a machine learning based adaptive bias correction (ABC) method combining state of the art dynamical forecasts with observations as well as utilizing regression models. We applied this method to probabilistic precipitation and temperature forecasts with a forecasting lead of 3 to 4 weeks over the continental United States from 1999 to 2016. Using the ranked probability skill for comparison, we can show that the skill of the ABC debiased forecasts is higher than in the traditional debiased forecasts for both space and time averaged skill. Another method to further improve the skill is to combine several different dynamical models into a multimodel ensemble e.g., by weighting all model forecasts equally. However, a better alternative to the latter is to weigh model forecasts based on their skill. We recently developed an approach for adaptive ensembling of numerical weather predictions using a machine learning tool called sequential online learning algorithms. As real-time weather outcomes are observed, the algorithm adjusts the weights of each model member according to its past performance. We evaluated the skill of precipitation and temperature forecasts forecasting at 3 to 4 weeks lead time over the United States from 1999 to 2016 and see that our proposed online learning algorithm can outperform uniform ensembles for probabilistic forecasts.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2018-04-30
    Description: The Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average since the mid 20th century, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (AA). These profound changes to the Arctic system have coincided with a period of ostensibly more frequent events of extreme weather across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes, including extreme heat and rainfall events and recent severe winters. Though winter temperatures have generally warmed since 1960 over mid-to-high latitudes, the acceleration in the rate of warming at high-latitudes, relative to the rest of the NH, started approximately in 1990. Trends since 1990 show cooling over the NH continents, especially in Northern Eurasia. The possible link between Arctic change and mid-latitude climate and weather has spurred a rush of new observational and modeling studies. A number of workshops held during 2013-2014 have helped frame the problem and have called for continuing and enhancing efforts for improving our understanding of Arctic-mid-latitude linkages and its attribution to the occurrence of extreme climate and weather events. Although these workshops have outlined some of the major challenges and provided broad recommendations, further efforts are needed to synthesize the diversified research results to identify where community consensus and gaps exist. Building upon findings and recommendations of the previous workshops, the US CLIVAR Working Group on Arctic Change and Possible Influence on Mid-latitude Climate and Weather convened an international workshop at Georgetown University in Washington, DC, on February 1-3, 2017. Experts in the fields of atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere sciences assembled to assess the rapidly evolving state of understanding, identify consensus on knowledge and gaps in research, and develop specific actions to accelerate progress within the research community. With more than 100 participants, the workshop was the largest and most comprehensive gathering of climate scientists to address the topic to date. In this white paper, we synthesize and discuss outcomes from this workshop and activities involving many of the working group members.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Book , peerRev
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2019-07-16
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2019-07-16
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 6
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    In:  EPIC311th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography, 2-5 May 2011, Boston MA.
    Publication Date: 2019-07-16
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Conference , notRev
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2021-01-18
    Description: The Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average since the late twentieth century, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (AA). Recently, there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical contributions to AA, and progress has been made in understanding the mechanisms that link it to midlatitude weather variability. Observational studies overwhelmingly support that AA is contributing to winter continental cooling. Although some model experiments support the observational evidence, most modelling results show little connection between AA and severe midlatitude weather or suggest the export of excess heating from the Arctic to lower latitudes. Divergent conclusions between model and observational studies, and even intramodel studies, continue to obfuscate a clear understanding of how AA is influencing midlatitude weather.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    [S.l.] : American Institute of Physics (AIP)
    Journal of Applied Physics 70 (1991), S. 2104-2110 
    ISSN: 1089-7550
    Source: AIP Digital Archive
    Topics: Physics
    Notes: The strain gradient through the thickness of 0.5-, 1.0-, and 2.0-mm-thick Al-2% Cu films on oxidized (001) Si wafers has been examined by using glancing-angle x-ray diffraction to measure the d spacing as a function of penetration depth of the incident x-ray beam. Samples with and without a 1-μm sputtered quartz passivation layer were examined. The only gradient observed in these samples corresponded to surface relaxation in the unpassivated samples at depths of less than 50 A(ring). This result was verified by examining the shape of the diffraction peaks. The dislocation densities of the films were also determined from the peak shape.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    College Park, Md. : American Institute of Physics (AIP)
    The Journal of Chemical Physics 93 (1990), S. 9062-9068 
    ISSN: 1089-7690
    Source: AIP Digital Archive
    Topics: Physics , Chemistry and Pharmacology
    Notes: The reduced specific viscosity of fully sulfonated sodium neutralized polystyrene under "free salt'' conditions was investigated as a function of temperature. It was found that the position of the maxima is strongly dependent on temperature. Small temperature changes (ΔT=20 K) introduce shifts of two orders of magnitude in the polyelectrolyte concentration at which the maximum appear. At a given temperature Cpmax is linearly dependent on molecular weight, the slope of the linear plot is temperature dependent increasing with temperature. The value of Cp at the maximum increases linearly with concentrations of externally added salt at all temperatures and molecular weights. At a given molecular weight, the logarithm of Cpmax is inversely dependent on temperature. The activation energy was calculated and found to be independent of the molecular weight of the polyelectrolyte. The dependence of the reduced specific viscosity on normalized polyelectrolyte concentration (Cp/Cpmax) resulted in one "master curve'' for all temperatures at a given molecular weight. Below the maximum, at lower polyelectrolyte concentration, a linear dependence of ηsp/Cp on Cp was obtained even for salt-free solutions. The apparent intrinsic viscosity and the Huggins coefficient were calculated, as it is done for noncharged polymers in the linear regime. High values of apparent intrinsic viscosity and the Huggins coefficient were obtained. The high measured values cannot be explained by hydrodynamic contribution of fully stretched molecules, indicating that even at extremely high dilutions the main contribution is the one of long range interactions (Culombic or others). The dependence of the apparent intrinsic viscosity on molecular weight was established. These measurements could be performed thanks to the availability of the apparatus developed by us which makes possible accurate measurements of the shear viscosity of low ionic strength, dilute polyelectrolyte solutions, down to polymer concentrations below one part per million.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    College Park, Md. : American Institute of Physics (AIP)
    The Journal of Chemical Physics 91 (1989), S. 5082-5086 
    ISSN: 1089-7690
    Source: AIP Digital Archive
    Topics: Physics , Chemistry and Pharmacology
    Notes: Surface self-diffusion constants have been calculated for the single component Lennard-Jones fcc(111) system using the dynamical corrections formalism for transition state theory (TST). At high temperatures, these results are found to be in agreement with previous molecular dynamics calculations. Over the extended temperature range in which this method is valid, deviations from Arrhenius behavior are observed. At lower temperatures, a noticeable contribution to the diffusion constant stems from trajectories in which the adatom recrosses the TST boundary, often due to a direction-reversing collision with the substrate atom on the far side of the binding site. This produces a dip in the dynamical correction factor centered around a reduced temperature of T=0.038. At higher temperatures, the expected multiple-jump effects are observed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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