Publication Date:
2014-11-22
Description:
The ongoing Ebola outbreak poses an alarming risk to the countries of West Africa and beyond. To assess the effectiveness of containment strategies, we developed a stochastic model of Ebola transmission between and within the general community, hospitals, and funerals, calibrated to incidence data from Liberia. We find that a combined approach of case isolation, contact-tracing with quarantine, and sanitary funeral practices must be implemented with utmost urgency in order to reverse the growth of the outbreak. As of 19 September, under status quo, our model predicts that the epidemic will continue to spread, generating a predicted 224 (134 to 358) daily cases by 1 December, 280 (184 to 441) by 15 December, and 348 (249 to 545) by 30 December.〈br /〉〈br /〉〈a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4316831/" target="_blank"〉〈img src="https://static.pubmed.gov/portal/portal3rc.fcgi/4089621/img/3977009" border="0"〉〈/a〉 〈a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4316831/" target="_blank"〉This paper as free author manuscript - peer-reviewed and accepted for publication〈/a〉〈br /〉〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Pandey, Abhishek -- Atkins, Katherine E -- Medlock, Jan -- Wenzel, Natasha -- Townsend, Jeffrey P -- Childs, James E -- Nyenswah, Tolbert G -- Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L -- Galvani, Alison P -- 2 U01 GM087719/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/ -- 5 U01 GM105627/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/ -- U01 GM087719/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/ -- U01 GM105627/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/ -- UL1 TR000142/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/ -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2014 Nov 21;346(6212):991-5. doi: 10.1126/science.1260612. Epub 2014 Oct 30.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA. ; Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK. ; Department of Biomedical Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA. ; Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA. ; Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA. ; Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, Monrovia, Liberia. ; Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA. alison.galvani@yale.edu.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25414312" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
Keywords:
Africa, Western/epidemiology
;
Containment of Biohazards/*methods
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Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/*epidemiology/*prevention & control
;
Humans
;
Models, Theoretical
Print ISSN:
0036-8075
Electronic ISSN:
1095-9203
Topics:
Biology
,
Chemistry and Pharmacology
,
Computer Science
,
Medicine
,
Natural Sciences in General
,
Physics
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