ALBERT

Description: A rapid coal phase-out is needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, but is hindered by serious challenges ranging from vested interests to the risks of social disruption. To understand how to organize a global coal phase-out, it is crucial to go beyond cost-effective climate mitigation scenarios and learn from the experience of previous coal transitions. Despite the relevance of the topic, evidence remains fragmented throughout different research fields, and not easily accessible. To address this gap, this paper provides a systematic map and comprehensive review of the literature on historical coal transitions. We use computer-assisted systematic mapping and review methods to chart and evaluate the available evidence on historical declines in coal production and consumption. We extracted a dataset of 278 case studies from 194 publications, covering coal transitions in 44 countries and ranging from the end of the 19th century until 2021. We find a relatively recent and rapidly expanding body of literature reflecting the growing importance of an early coal phase-out in scientific and political debates. Previous evidence has primarily focused on the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany, while other countries that experienced large coal declines, like those in Eastern Europe, are strongly underrepresented. An increasing number of studies, mostly published in the last 5 years, has been focusing on China. Most of the countries successfully reducing coal dependency have undergone both demand-side and supply-side transitions. This supports the use of policy approaches targeting both demand and supply to achieve a complete coal phase-out. From a political economy perspective, our dataset highlights that most transitions are driven by rising production costs for coal, falling prices for alternative energies, or local environmental concerns, especially regarding air pollution. The main challenges for coal-dependent regions are structural change transformations, in particular for industry and labor. Rising unemployment is the most largely documented outcome in the sample. Policymakers at multiple levels are instrumental in facilitating coal transitions. They rely mainly on regulatory instruments to foster the transitions and compensation schemes or investment plans to deal with their transformative processes. Even though many models suggest that coal phase-outs are among the low-hanging fruits on the way to climate neutrality and meeting the international climate goals, our case studies analysis highlights the intricate political economy at work that needs to be addressed through well-designed and just policies.

Description: A rapid phase-out of unabated coal use is essential to limit global warming to below 2°C. This review presents a comprehensive assessment of coal transitions in mitigation scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement, using data from more than 1500 publicly available scenarios generated by more than 30 integrated assessment models. Our ensemble analysis uses clustering techniques to categorize coal transition pathways in models and bridges evidence on technological learning and innovation with historical data of energy systems. Six key findings emerge: First, we identify three archetypal coal transitions within Paris-consistent mitigation pathways. About 38% of scenarios are ‘coal phase out’ trajectories and rapidly reduce coal consumption to near zero. ‘Coal persistence’ pathways (42%) reduce coal consumption much more gradually and incompletely. The remaining 20% follow ‘coal resurgence’ pathways, characterised by increased coal consumption in the second half of the century.. Second, coal persistence and resurgence archetypes rely on the widespread availability and rapid scale-up of carbon capture and storage technology (CCS). Third, coal-transition archetypes spread across all levels of climate policy ambition and scenario cycles, reflecting their dependence on model structures and assumptions. Fourth, most baseline scenarios – including the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) - show much higher coal dependency compared to historical observations over the last 60 years. Fifth, coal-transition scenarios consistently incorporate very optimistic assumptions about the cost and scalability of CCS technologies, while being pessimistic about the cost and scalability of renewable energy technologies. Sixth, evaluation against coal-dependent baseline scenarios suggests that many mitigation scenarios overestimate the technical difficulty and costs of coal phase- outs. To improve future research, we recommend using up-to-date cost data and evidence about innovation and diffusion dynamics of different groups of zero or low-carbon technologies. Revised SSP quantifications need to incorporate projected technology learning and consistent cost structures, while reflecting recent trends in coal consumption.

Description: Public acceptance is central to the success of a transition agenda but with the increasing uptake of renewable energy technology, achieving and sustaining the public legitimacy for accelerating the energy transition is at risk. This study provides an updated account of the energy transition development in Germany and Australia with a focus on institutional legitimation. Drawing on the distinction between input and output legitimacy, we query how enabling community participation can enhance the legitimacy of policy instruments. We employ two case studies of energy transitions – those of Germany and Australia – to explain where and how community participation has supported the legitimacy of policy interventions. While input legitimacy remains high in both Germany and Australia, both examples illustrate how policy instruments can lack legitimacy if decision-makers lose sight of or never properly consider the output dimension of legitimacy.

Description: Urgent and ambitious climate action is required to avoid catastrophic climate change and consequent health impacts. Political will is a critical component of the ambitious climate action equation. The current level of political will observed for many national governments is considered inadequate, with numerous political leaders yet to commit to climate action commensurate with the projected risks and responsibilities for their respective jurisdictions. Under the leadership of the Obama administration, however, the United States of America arguably provided an example to the contrary. Strategically utilising an available legislative lever, the Obama administration pursued comparatively ambitious climate change mitigation policies, with health as a core motivation. Analysis of Obama-led climate policies and policy-making strategies provides valuable insight into the utility of health as a motivator for climate action. It also reaffirms that strong political leadership constitutes an essential element in the pursuit of increasingly ambitious climate change policies, particularly in the face of strong opposition.