ALBERT

Description: Numerical simulations of column collapse and pyroclastic density current (PDC) scenarios at Vesuvius were carried out using a transient 3D flow model based on multiphase transport laws. The model describes the dynamics of the collapse as well as the effects of the 3D topography of the volcano on PDC propagation. Source conditions refer to a medium-scale sub-Plinian event and consider a pressure-balanced jet. Simulation results provide new insights into the complex dynamics of these phenomena. In particular: 1) column collapse can be characterized by different regimes, from incipient collapse to partial or nearly total collapse, thus confirming the possibility of a transitional field of behaviour of the column characterized by the contemporaneous and/or intermittent occurrence of ash fallout and PDCs; 2) the collapse regime can be characterized by its fraction of eruptive mass reaching the ground and generating PDCs; 3) within the range of the investigated source conditions, the propagation and hazard potential of PDCs appear to be directly correlated with the flow-rate of the mass collapsing to the ground, rather than to the collapse height of the column (this finding is in contrast with predictions based on the energy-line concept, which simply correlates the PDC runout and kinetic energy with the collapse height of the column); 4) first-order values of hazard variables associated with PDCs (i.e., dynamic pressure, temperature, airborne ash concentration) can be derived from simulation results, thereby providing initial estimates for the quantification of damage scenarios; 5) for scenarios assuming a location of the central vent coinciding with that of the present Gran Cono, Mount Somma significantly influences the propagation of PDCs, largely reducing their propagation in the northern sector, and diverting mass toward the west and southeast, accentuating runouts and hazard variables for these sectors; 6) the 2D modelling approximation can force an artificial radial propagation of the PDCs since it ignores azimuthal flows produced by real topographies that therefore need to be simulated in fully 3D conditions.

Description: Multiphase flow models represent valuable tools for the study of the complex, non-equilibrium dynamics of pyroclastic density currents. Particle sedimentation, flow stratification and rheological changes, depending on the flow regime, interaction with topographic obstacles, turbulent air entrainment, buoyancy reversal, and other complex features of pyroclastic currents can be simulated in two and three dimensions, by exploiting efficient numerical solvers and the improved computational capability of modern supercomputers. However, numerical simulations of polydisperse gas-particle mixtures are quite computationally expensive, so that their use in hazard assessment studies (where there is the need of evaluating the probability of hazardous actions over hundreds of possible scenarios) is still challenging. To this aim, a simplified integral (box) model can be used, under the appropriate hypotheses, to describe the kinematics of pyroclastic density currents over a flat topography, their scaling properties and their depositional features. In this work, multiphase flow simulations are used to evaluate integral model approximations, to calibrate its free parameters and to assess the influence of the input data on the results. Two-dimensional numerical simulations describe the generation and decoupling of a dense, basal layer (formed by progressive particle sedimentation) from the dilute transport system. In the Boussinesq regime (i.e., for solid mass fractions below about 0.1), the current Froude number (i.e., the ratio between the current inertia and buoyancy) does not strongly depend on initial conditions and it is consistent to that measured in laboratory experiments (i.e., between 1.05 and 1.2). For higher density ratios (solid mass fraction in the range 0.1–0.9) but still in a relatively dilute regime (particle volume fraction lower than 0.01), numerical simulations demonstrate that the box model is still applicable, but the Froude number depends on the reduced gravity. When the box model is opportunely calibrated with the numerical simulation results, the prediction of the flow runout is fairly accurate and the model predicts a rapid, non-linear decay of the flow kinetic energy (or dynamic pressure) with the distance from the source. The capability of PDC to overcome topographic obstacles can thus be analysed in the framework of the energy-conoid approach, in which the predicted kinetic energy of the flow front is compared with the potential energy jump associated with the elevated topography to derive a condition for blocking. Model results show that, although preferable to the energy-cone, the energy-conoid approach still has some serious limitations, mostly associated with the behaviour of the flow head. Implications of these outcomes are discussed in the context of probabilistic hazard assessment studies, in which a calibrated box model can be used as a fast pyroclastic density current emulator for Monte Carlo simulations.