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  • 1
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    Elsevier
    In:  In: Siberian River Run-Off in the Kara Sea: Characterization, Quantification, Variability and Environmental Significance. , ed. by Stein, R., Fahl, K., Fütterer, D., Galimov, E. M. and Stepanets, O. V. Proceedings in Marine Sciences, 6 . Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 47-72. ISBN 0-444-51365-5
    Publication Date: 2015-03-09
    Type: Book chapter , NonPeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2015-03-10
    Description: This study was motivated by a strong warming signal seen in mooring-based and oceanographic survey data collected in 2004 in the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean. The source of this and earlier Arctic Ocean changes lies in interactions between polar and sub-polar basins. Evidence suggests such changes are abrupt, or pulse-like, taking the form of propagating anomalies that can be traced to higher-latitudes. For example, an anomaly found in 2004 in the eastern Eurasian Basin took ∼1.5 years to propagate from the Norwegian Sea to the Fram Strait region, and additional ∼4.5–5 years to reach the Laptev Sea slope. While the causes of the observed changes will require further investigation, our conclusions are consistent with prevailing ideas suggesting the Arctic Ocean is in transition towards a new, warmer state.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 3
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    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Climate, 30 (12). pp. 4337-4350.
    Publication Date: 2020-02-06
    Description: Warm water of open ocean origin on the continental shelf of the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas causes the highest basal melt rates reported for Antarctic ice shelves with severe consequences for the ice shelf/ice sheet dynamics. Ice shelves fringing the broad continental shelf in the Weddell and Ross Seas melt at rates orders of magnitude smaller. However, simulations using coupled ice–ocean models forced with the atmospheric output of the HadCM3 SRES-A1B scenario run (CO2 concentration in the atmosphere reaches 700 ppmv by the year 2100 and stays at that level for an additional 100 years) show that the circulation in the southern Weddell Sea changes during the twenty-first century. Derivatives of Circumpolar Deep Water are directed southward underneath the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf, warming the cavity and dramatically increasing basal melting. To find out whether the open ocean will always continue to power the melting, the authors extend their simulations, applying twentieth-century atmospheric forcing, both alone and together with prescribed basal mass flux at the end of (or during) the SRES-A1B scenario run. The results identify a tipping point in the southern Weddell Sea: once warm water flushes the ice shelf cavity a positive meltwater feedback enhances the shelf circulation and the onshore transport of open ocean heat. The process is irreversible with a recurrence to twentieth-century atmospheric forcing and can only be halted through prescribing a return to twentieth-century basal melt rates. This finding might have strong implications for the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: In September 2019, the research icebreaker Polarstern started the largest multidisciplinary Arctic expedition to date, the MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) drift experiment. Being moored to an ice floe for a whole year, thus including the winter season, the declared goal of the expedition is to better understand and quantify relevant processes within the atmosphere–ice–ocean system that impact the sea ice mass and energy budget, ultimately leading to much improved climate models. Satellite observations, atmospheric reanalysis data, and readings from a nearby meteorological station indicate that the interplay of high ice export in late winter and exceptionally high air temperatures resulted in the longest ice-free summer period since reliable instrumental records began. We show, using a Lagrangian tracking tool and a thermodynamic sea ice model, that the MOSAiC floe carrying the Central Observatory (CO) formed in a polynya event north of the New Siberian Islands at the beginning of December 2018. The results further indicate that sea ice in the vicinity of the CO (〈40 km distance) was younger and 36 % thinner than the surrounding ice with potential consequences for ice dynamics and momentum and heat transfer between ocean and atmosphere. Sea ice surveys carried out on various reference floes in autumn 2019 verify this gradient in ice thickness, and sediments discovered in ice cores (so-called dirty sea ice) around the CO confirm contact with shallow waters in an early phase of growth, consistent with the tracking analysis. Since less and less ice from the Siberian shelves survives its first summer (Krumpen et al., 2019), the MOSAiC experiment provides the unique opportunity to study the role of sea ice as a transport medium for gases, macronutrients, iron, organic matter, sediments and pollutants from shelf areas to the central Arctic Ocean and beyond. Compared to data for the past 26 years, the sea ice encountered at the end of September 2019 can already be classified as exceptionally thin, and further predicted changes towards a seasonally ice-free ocean will likely cut off the long-range transport of ice-rafted materials by the Transpolar Drift in the future. A reduced long-range transport of sea ice would have strong implications for the redistribution of biogeochemical matter in the central Arctic Ocean, with consequences for the balance of climate-relevant trace gases, primary production and biodiversity in the Arctic Ocean.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2021-07-21
    Description: We have equipped the unstructured‐mesh global sea‐ice and ocean model FESOM2 with a set of physical parameterizations derived from the single‐column sea‐ice model Icepack. The update has substantially broadened the range of physical processes that can be represented by the model. The new features are directly implemented on the unstructured FESOM2 mesh, and thereby benefit from the flexibility that comes with it in terms of spatial resolution. A subset of the parameter space of three model configurations, with increasing complexity, has been calibrated with an iterative Green's function optimization method to test the impact of the model update on the sea‐ice representation. Furthermore, to explore the sensitivity of the results to different atmospheric forcings, each model configuration was calibrated separately for the NCEP‐CFSR/CFSv2 and ERA5 forcings. The results suggest that a complex model formulation leads to a better agreement between modeled and the observed sea‐ice concentration and snow thickness, while differences are smaller for sea‐ice thickness and drift speed. However, the choice of the atmospheric forcing also impacts the agreement of the FESOM2 simulations and observations, with NCEP‐CFSR/CFSv2 being particularly beneficial for the simulated sea‐ice concentration and ERA5 for sea‐ice drift speed. In this respect, our results indicate that parameter calibration can better compensate for differences among atmospheric forcings in a simpler model (i.e., sea‐ice has no heat capacity) than in more realistic formulations with a prognostic sea‐ice thickness distribution and sea ice enthalpy.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The role of model complexity in determining the performance of sea‐ice numerical simulations is still not completely understood. Some studies suggest that a more sophisticated description of the sea‐ice physics leads to simulations that agree better with sea‐ice observations. Others, however, fail to establish a link between complex model formulations and improved model performance. Here, we investigate this open question by analyzing a set of sea‐ice simulations performed with a revised and improved sea‐ice model that features substantial modularity in terms of model complexity. Ten model parameters in three different model configurations are optimized to improve the agreement between model results and observations, allowing a fair comparison between model configurations with varying complexity. The model optimization is repeated for two different atmospheric forcings to shed light on the relationship between model complexity and other sources of uncertainty in the sea‐ice simulations, such as those associated with the atmospheric conditions. The results suggest that a more complex formulation of our model can lead to a more appropriate representation of sea ice concentration and snow thickness, while it is less relevant for sea‐ice thickness and drift.
    Description: Key Points: Increased sea‐ice model complexity can improve the simulated sea‐ice concentration and snow thickness Sea‐ice thickness and drift are only weakly affected by model complexity Parameter calibration can better compensate for differences between atmospheric forcings in a simpler model
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: European Commission (EC) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780
    Description: US Department of Energy (DOE)
    Keywords: 551.343 ; Arctic ; FESOM2 ; Green's function ; parameter optimization ; sea ice ; unstructured mesh
    Type: article
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