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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2023-12-27
    Description: The Aso-4 explosive eruption on Kyushu, Japan, 89,500 years ago was one of the biggest eruptions in the last one hundred millennia, with a magnitude of approximately M8. Modern society requires the likelihood of natural events with potentially disastrous consequences to be evaluated, even if probabilities of occurrence are diminishingly small. For some situations, it is not satisfactory to assert an event scenario probability is “negligible” or can be “ignored”. Judicial hearings or litigation may require risk levels to be quantified, in which case, statements of scientific confidence could be decisive. Internation- ally, e.g., for nuclear site safety evaluations, event likelihoods on order of 10–7/year are often considered for quantitative assessment. At such hazard levels, this might include evaluating the proposition that a particular volcano can deliver a future super-eruption, a supposition that could be attached to Aso volcano. But, simplistically taking the average recurrence interval between past caldera-forming eruptions at a given volcano is an unreliable guide to the likelihood of a future repeat: each past event represented a unique set of tectonic and magmatic conditions within a continually evolving volcanic system. Such processes are not temporally stationary nor statistically uniform. To evaluate the probability of a new M8 event at Aso, within the next 100 years, we performed a comprehensive stochastic probability uncertainty analysis using a model implemented with advanced computational Bayes Net (BN) software. Our eruption process model is informed by multiple strands of evidence from volcanology, petrology, geochemistry and geophysics, together with estimates of epistemic (knowledge) uncertainty, adduced from reviews of published data, modelling and from expert judgement elicitation. Several lines of evidence characterise the likely structure, magmatic composition and eruptive state of the present-day Aso volcano, which has had numerous smaller eruptions since Aso-4. To calculate the probability of another M8 eruption of Aso, we implemented probabilistic ‘Importance Sampling’ in our model. With this approach, we find the chance of an Aso-4 scale eruption (characterised by mean volume 500 km3 DRE and approximate 90% credible interval [210 .. 1200] km3 DRE) is less than 1–in–1 billion in the next 100 years (i.e., 〈 10–9 probability). Based on current vol- canological understanding and evidence, we believe this probability estimate is robust to within an order of magnitude.
    Description: Published
    Description: 5
    Description: OSV1: Verso la previsione dei fenomeni vulcanici pericolosi
    Description: N/A or not JCR
    Keywords: 05.05. Mathematical geophysics ; 04.08. Volcanology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford UK : Blackwell Science Ltd
    Sedimentology 46 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1365-3091
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geosciences
    Notes: The behaviour of subaerial particle-laden gravity currents (e.g. pyroclastic flows, lahars, debris flows, sediment-bearing floods and jökulhlaups) flowing into the sea has been simulated with analogue experiments. Flows of either saline solution, simple suspensions of silicon carbide (SiC) in water or complex suspensions of SiC and plastic particles in methanol were released down a slope into a tank of water. The excess momentum between subaerial and subaqueous flow is dissipated by a surface wave. At relatively low density contrasts between the tank water and the saline or simple suspensions, the flow mixture enters the water and forms a turbulent cloud involving extensive entrainment of water. The cloud then collapses gravitationally to form an underwater gravity current, which progresses along the tank floor. At higher density contrasts, the subaerial flow develops directly into a subaqueous flow. The flow slows and thickens in response to the reduced density contrast, which is driving motion, and then continues in the typical gravity current manner. Complex suspensions become dense flows along the tank floor or buoyant flows along the water surface, if the mixtures are sufficiently denser or lighter than water respectively. Flows of initially intermediate density are strongly influenced by the internal stratification of the subaerial flow. Material from the particulate-depleted upper sections of the subaerial flow becomes a buoyant gravity current along the water surface, whereas material from the particulate-enriched lower sections forms a dense flow along the tank floor. Sedimentation from the dense flow results in a reduction in bulk density until the mixture attains buoyancy, lifts off and becomes a secondary buoyant flow along the water surface. Jökulhlaups, lahars and debris flows are typically much denser than seawater and, thus, will usually form dense flows along the seabed. After sufficient sedimentation, the freshwater particulate mixture can lift off to form a buoyant flow at the sea surface, leading to a decoupling of the fine and coarse particles. Flood waters with low particulate concentrations (〈2%) may form buoyant flows immediately upon entering the ocean. Subaerial pyroclastic flows develop a pronounced internal stratification during subaerial run-out and, thus, a flow-splitting behaviour is probable, which agrees with evidence for sea surface and underwater flows from historic eruptions of Krakatau and Mont Pelée. A pyroclastic flow with a bulk density closer to that of sea water may form a turbulent cloud, resulting in the deposition of much of the pyroclasts close to the shore. Dense subaqueous pyroclastic flows will eventually lift off and form secondary buoyant flows, either before or after the transformation to a water-supported nature.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 309 (1984), S. 19-22 
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] We propose that komatiite lavas were emplaced as turbulent flows, accompanied by vigorous forced convection with cooling rates often in excess of hundreds of °C h−1. They melted and assimilated up to 10% of the ground over which they flowed, forming deep channels. Nickel ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 297 (1982), S. 554-557 
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] The intimate mixing between different magmas of disparate densities, characteristic of some calc-alkaline magma systems, is explained by a new mechanism involving the emplacement of a layer of wet undersaturated mafic magma at the base of a magma chamber containing more differentiated magma. ...
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  • 5
    ISSN: 1432-0819
    Keywords: Key words Lascar Volcano ; Lava domes ; Degassing ; Explosive eruptions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract  Lascar Volcano (5592 m; 23°22'S, 67°44'W) entered a new period of vigorous activity in 1984, culminating in a major explosive eruption in April 1993. Activity since 1984 has been characterised by cyclic behaviour with recognition of four cycles up to the end of 1993. In each cycle a lava dome is extruded in the active crater, accompanied by vigorous degassing through high-temperature, high-velocity fumaroles distributed on and around the dome. The fumaroles are the source of a sustained steam plume above the volcano. The dome then subsides back into the conduit. During the subsidence phase the velocity and gas output of the fumaroles decrease, and the cycle is completed by violent explosive activity. Subsidence of both the dome and the crater floor is accommodated by movement on concentric, cylindrical or inward-dipping conical fractures. The observations are consistent with a model in which gas loss from the dome is progressively inhibited during a cycle and gas pressure increases within and below the lava dome, triggering a large explosive eruption. Factors that can lead to a decrease in gas loss include a decrease in magma permeability by foam collapse, reduction in permeability due to precipitation of hydrothermal minerals in the pores and fractures within the dome and in country rock surrounding the conduit, and closure of open fractures during subsidence of the dome and crater floor. Dome subsidence may be a consequence of reduction in magma porosity (foam collapse) as degassing occurs and pressurisation develops as the permeability of the dome and conduit system decreases. Superimposed upon this activity are small explosive events of shallow origin. These we interpret as subsidence events on the concentric fractures leading to short-term pressure increases just below the crater floor.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    International journal of earth sciences 64 (1975), S. 497-523 
    ISSN: 1437-3262
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences
    Description / Table of Contents: Abstract Vulsini Volcano, Bolsena District, central Italy is a Quaternary centre eruptions of which have been dominated by the production of ignimbrites. Stratigraphic studies show that there are six major ignimbrite units with individual minimum volumes of 0.5 to 3 km3 and a large number of smaller ignimbrite units, together with pyroclastic surge and pyroclastic fall deposits. It is estimated that at least 90% of the volcanic products are pyroclastic producing a low profile volcano with 1 to 5
    Abstract: Riassunto Il vulcano di Vulsini, nell'Italia Centrale, è un centro di epoca quaternaria nel quale la produzione di colate piroclastiche è stata prédominante. Vi si possono riconoscere sei maggiori ignimbriti di larga mole (volumi 0.5–3 Km3) oltre a un gran numéro di ignimbriti di minor volume, associate a depositi di “pyroclastic fall”, di ceneri minute e a depositi di “spinta” piroclastica (base surge) ad alta temperatura, formatesi nelle stesse eruzioni. Le ignimbriti si presentano sia saldate o non saldate e sono scarsemente separate. Ognuno di esse è composto da un insieme di colate individuali la cui base è segnata da uno strato basilare a grana più fine, e nelle quali sono comuni larghi frammenti di pomice a gradazione inversa e larghi frammenti litici di gradazione normale. Per quanto riguarda tutti le maggiori ignimbriti, la mole massima dei frammenti di roccia estranea decresce con l'allontanarsi dalla caldera di Latera, ad eccezione dell'ignimbrite C, per la quale questo avviene allontanandosi dalla caldera di Bolsena. Analisi di frammenti di pomice proveniente dalle ignimbriti mostrano la presenza di una vasta gamma die elementi (SiO2 49%–62%), tuttavia dal confronta fra lave e materiali piroclastici risulta che i magmi che formano le rocce piroclastiche sono, in generale, molto più evoluti. La grossezza della grana e le caratteristiche morfologiche delle ignimbriti fanno ritenere che la loro origine sia dovuta al depositarsi di dispersioni di gas densi, poco espansi e di solidi, e che le colate piroclastiche siano da considerarsi come colate di detriti, lubrificati dal gas.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Der Vulkan Vulsini in Mittelitalien entstand im Quartär und wird von pyroklastischen Lavadecken geprägt. Sechs ausgedehnte Ignimbritmassen (Mengen 0,5 bis 4 km3) und eine gro\e Anzahl kleinerer Ignimbritkörper wurden festgestellt. Die Ignimbrite kommen zusammen mit Pyroklastiten, feinen Aschen und einigen hochtemperierten pyroklastischen „surge“-Absätzen vor. Die Ignimbrite sind schlecht sortiert, verschwei\t und unverschwei\t. Jeder Ignimbrit besteht aus vielen Lagen, und der Boden jeder Lage ist durch eine feinkörnige Grundlage markiert. Inverse Gradierung gro\er Bimsstein-Fragmente und normale Gradierung gro\er Klastite kommen häufig vor. Die grö\ten Fremdgesteins-Fragmente nehmen mit der Entfernung von der Caldera di Latera ab, nur Ignimbrit C verringert sich mit der Entfernung von der Caldera di Bolsena. Analysen von Bimsstein-Fragmenten der Ignimbrite zeigen eine wechselnde Zusammensetzung (SiO2 49–62%). Ein Vergleich der Zusammensetzung der Lava und der Pyroklastika zeigt jedoch, da\ die Magmen, die das pyroklastische Gestein bilden, allgemein kieselsäurereicher entwickelt sind. Die Korngrö\e und die Morphologie der Ignimbrite deuten darauf hin, da\ sie aus dichten Gas/Feststoff-Dispersionen deponiert worden sind, und pyroklastische Lagen werden als durch Gas transportierte Gesteinstrümmer gedeutet.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 312 (1984), S. 200-200 
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] IGNEOUS processes are a dominant mechanism for chemical differentiation within the Earth. They set up complicated plumbing systems which connect the deep source of magma generation to the surface. Some magma ascends to the surface to initiate volcanic activity, while some can be trapped at depth to ...
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 313 (1985), S. 247-248 
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] HUPPERT ET AL. REPLY-Claoué-Long and Nesbitt present only some of the facts supporting thermal erosion and contamination in komatiites. Interpretations of these rocks are rarely straightforward, as their lavas are deformed and metamorphosed; primary volcanic features have only been well ...
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 362 (1993), S. 829-831 
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] Photographs of a two-dimensional gravity current formed by the sudden release of a fixed volume of dense fluid behind a lock gate into less dense ambient fluid are shown in Fig. 1. Three distinct flow regimes are seen1: a slumping phase8'9, during which the gravity current head moves at a roughly ...
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 286 (1980), S. 46-48 
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] Before presenting the model we emphasize a fundamental feature of the moderate to low pressure evolution of picritic to tholeiitic basalt by crystal fractionation7. Figure 1 shows the dependence of density of high-magnesia melts on MgO content as crystallization occurs, calculated by the method of ...
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