ALBERT

Description: Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32 degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degree C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.

Description: Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in K W1 m2) of 0.3-1.9 or 0.6-1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2-4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which agrees with IPCC estimates.

Description: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere the global carbon budget is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1(sigma), reflecting the current capacity to characterize the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006-2015), EFF was 9.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, ELUC 1.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr,GATM 4.5+/-0.1 GtC/yr, SOCEAN 2.6+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND 3.1+/-0.9 GtC/yr. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9+/-0.5 GtC/yr, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8/yr that took place during 2006-2015.Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, GATM was 6.3+/-0.2 GtC/yr, SOCEAN was 3.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND was 1.9+/-0.9 GtC/yr. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006-2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4+/-0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2% (range of -1.0 to +1.8% ) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Nino conditions of 2015-2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565+/-55 GtC (2075+/-205 GtCO2) for 1870-2016, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set.

Description: This paper presents a detailed study of a single thunderstorm anvil cirrus cloud measured on 21 July 2002 near southern Florida during the Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers--Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE). NASA WB-57F and University of North Dakota Citation aircraft tracked the microphysical and radiative development of the anvil for 3 h. Measurements showed that the cloud mass that was advected downwind from the thunderstorm was separated vertically into two layers: a cirrus anvil with cloud-top temperatures of -45?C lay below a second, thin tropopause cirrus (TTC) layer with the same horizontal dimensions as the anvil and temperatures near -70?C. In both cloud layers, ice crystals smaller than 50 ?m across dominated the size distributions and cloud radiative properties. In the anvil, ice crystals larger than 50 ?m aggregated and precipitated while small ice crystals increasingly dominated the size distributions; as a consequence, measured ice water contents and ice crystal effective radii decreased with time. Meanwhile, the anvil thinned vertically and maintained a stratification similar to its environment. Because effective radii were small, radiative heating and cooling were concentrated in layers approximately 100 m thick at the anvil top and base. A simple analysis suggests that the anvil cirrus spread laterally because mixing in these radiatively driven layers created horizontal pressure gradients between the cloud and its stratified environment. The TTC layer also spread but, unlike the anvil, did not dissipate--perhaps because the anvil shielded the TTC from terrestrial infrared heating. Calculations of top-of-troposphere radiative forcing above the anvil and TTC showed strong cooling that tapered as the anvil evolved.

Description: An overview is given of the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) Arctic Clouds Experiment that was conducted in the Arctic during April through July, 1998. The principal goal of the field experiment was to gather the data needed to examine the impact of arctic clouds on the radiation exchange between the surface, atmosphere, and space, and to study how the surface influences the evolution of boundary layer clouds. The observations will be used to evaluate and improve climate model parameterizations of cloud and radiation processes, satellite remote sensing of cloud and surface characteristics, and understanding of cloud-radiation feedbacks in the Arctic. The experiment utilized four research aircraft that flew over surface-based observational sites in the Arctic Ocean and Barrow, Alaska. In this paper we describe the programmatic and science objectives of the project, the experimental design (including research platforms and instrumentation), conditions that were encountered during the field experiment, and some highlights of preliminary observations, modelling, and satellite remote sensing studies.

Description: We present validation studies of MLS version 2.2 upper tropospheric and stratospheric ozone profiles using ozonesonde and lidar data as well as climatological data. Ozone measurements from over 60 ozonesonde stations worldwide and three lidar stations are compared with coincident MLS data. The MLS ozone stratospheric data between 150 and 3 hPa agree well with ozonesonde measurements, within 8% for the global average. MLS values at 215 hPa are biased high compared to ozonesondes by approximately 20% at middle to high latitude, although there is a lot of variability in this altitude region.

Description: The possible minimal range of reduction in snow surface albedo due to dry deposition of black carbon (BC) in the pre-monsoon period (March-May) was estimated as a lower bound together with the estimation of its accuracy, based on atmospheric observations at the Nepal Climate Observatory-Pyramid (NCO-P) sited at 5079 m a.s.l. in the Himalayan region. We estimated a total BC deposition rate of 2.89 g m-2 day-1 providing a total deposition of 266 micrograms/ square m for March-May at the site, based on a calculation with a minimal deposition velocity of 1.0 10(exp -4) m/s with atmospheric data of equivalent BC concentration. Main BC size at NCO-P site was determined as 103.1-669.8 nm by correlation analysis between equivalent BC concentration and particulate size distribution in the atmosphere. We also estimated BC deposition from the size distribution data and found that 8.7% of the estimated dry deposition corresponds to the estimated BC deposition from equivalent BC concentration data. If all the BC is deposited uniformly on the top 2-cm pure snow, the corresponding BC concentration is 26.0-68.2 microgram/kg assuming snow density variations of 195-512 kg/ cubic m of Yala Glacier close to NCO-P site. Such a concentration of BC in snow could result in 2.0-5.2% albedo reductions. From a simple numerical calculations and if assuming these albedo reductions continue throughout the year, this would lead to a runoff increases of 70-204 mm of water drainage equivalent of 11.6-33.9% of the annual discharge of a typical Tibetan glacier. Our estimates of BC concentration in snow surface for pre-monsoon season can be considered comparable to those at similar altitude in the Himalayan region, where glaciers and perpetual snow region starts in the vicinity of NCO-P. Our estimates from only BC are likely to represent a lower bound for snow albedo reductions, since a fixed slower deposition velocity was used and atmospheric wind and turbulence effects, snow aging, dust deposition, and snow albedo feedbacks were not considered. This study represents the first investigation about BC deposition on snow from atmospheric aerosol data in Himalayas and related albedo effect is especially the first track at the southern slope of Himalayas.

Description: We have made heat capacity measurements of superfluid He-4 at temperatures very close to the lambda point, T(sub lambda) , in a constant heat flux, Q, when the helium sample is heated from above. In this configuration the helium enters a self-organized (SOC) heat transport state at a temperature T(sub SOC)(Q), which for Q greater than or = 100 nW/sq cm lies below T(sub lambda). At low Q we observe little or no deviation from the bulk Q = 0 heat capacity up to T(sub SOC)(Q); beyond this temperature the heat capacity appears to be sharply depressed, deviating dramatically from its bulk behaviour. This marks the formation and propagation of a SOC/superfluid two phase state, which we confirm with a simple model. The excellent agreement between data and model serves as an independent confirmation of the existence of the SOC state. As Q is increased (up to 6 micron W/sq cm) we observe a Q dependant depression in the heat capacity that occurs just below T(sub SOC)(Q), when the entire sample is still superfluid. This is due to the emergence of a large thermal resistance in the sample, which we have measured and used to model the observed heat capacity depression. Our measurements of the superfluid thermal resistivity are a factor of ten larger than previous measurements by Baddar et al.

Description: For the preparation of ITRF2008, the IDS processed data from 1993 to 2008, including data from TOPEX/Poseidon, the SPOT satellites and Envisat in the weekly solutions. Since the development of ITRF2008, the IDS has been engaged in a number of efforts to try and improve the reference frame solutions. These efforts include (i) assessing the contribution of the new DORIS satellites, Jason-2 and Cryosat2 (2008-2011), (ii) individually analyzing the DORIS satellite contributions to geocenter and scale, and (iii) improving orbit dynamics (atmospheric loading effects, satellite surface force modeling. . . ). We report on the preliminary results from these research activities, review the status of the IDS combination which is now routinely generated from the contributions of the IDS analysis centers, and discuss the prospects for continued improvement in the DORIS contribution to the next international reference frame.

Description: We have used the solar spectral flux radiometer (SSFR) flight instrument with the Ames 25 meter base-path White cell to obtain about 20 moderate resolution (8 nm) pure water vapor spectra from 650 to 1650 nm, with absorbing paths from 806 to 1506 meters and pressures up to 14 torr. We also obtained a set at 806 meters with several different air-broadening pressures. Model simulations were made for the 940, 1130, and 1370 nm absorption bands for some of these laboratory conditions using the Rothman, et al HITRAN-2000 linelist. This new compilation of HITRAN includes new intensity measurements for the 940 nm region. We compared simulations for our spectra of this band using HITRAN-2000 with simulations using the prior HITRAN-1996. The simulations of the 1130 nm band show about 10% less absorption than we measured. There is some evidence that the total intensity of this band is about 38% stronger than the sum of the HITRAN line intensities in this region. In our laboratory conditions the absorption depends approximately on the square root of the intensity. Thus, our measurements agree that the band is stronger than tabulated in HITRAN, but by about 20%, substantially less than the published value. Significant differences have been shown between Doppler-limited resolution spectra of the 1370 nm band obtained at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and HITRAN simulations. Additional new intensity measurements in this region are continuing to be made. We expect the simulations of our SSFR lab data of this band will show the relative importance of improving the HITRAN line intensities of this band for atmospheric measurements.