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  • Frailty  (2)
  • IPCC  (2)
  • B-parental care  (1)
  • 1
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    Fathers matter : male body mass affects life-history traits in a size-dimorphic seabird (2017)
    The Royal Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Proceedings of the Royal Soceity B Biological Sciences 284 (2017): 20170397, doi:10.1098/rspb.2017.0397.
    Description: One of the predicted consequences of climate change is a shift in body mass distributions within animal populations. Yet body mass, an important component of the physiological state of an organism, can affect key life-history traits and consequently population dynamics. Over the past decades, the wandering albatross—a pelagic seabird providing bi-parental care with marked sexual size dimorphism—has exhibited an increase in average body mass and breeding success in parallel with experiencing increasing wind speeds. To assess the impact of these changes, we examined how body mass affects five key life-history traits at the individual level: adult survival, breeding probability, breeding success, chick mass and juvenile survival. We found that male mass impacted all traits examined except breeding probability, whereas female mass affected none. Adult male survival increased with increasing mass. Increasing adult male mass increased breeding success and mass of sons but not of daughters. Juvenile male survival increased with their chick mass. These results suggest that a higher investment in sons by fathers can increase their inclusive fitness, which is not the case for daughters. Our study highlights sex-specific differences in the effect of body mass on the life history of a monogamous species with bi-parental care.
    Description: This study is supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation project grant no. 31003A_146445 and the ERC Starting Grant no. 337785 to A.O., and is a contribution to the Program EARLYLIFE funded by an ERC Advanced Grant under the European Community’s Seven Framework Program FP7/2007-2013 (ERC- 2012-ADG_20120314 to H.W.). The long-term demographic study at Crozet was supported by the French Polar Institute IPEV (programme no. 109 to H.W.). S.J. acknowledges support from NSF project no.1246407.
    Keywords: Wandering albatross ; B-parental care ; Sexual dimorphism ; Survival ; Reproduction
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 2
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    Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population : analysis of coupled demographic and climate models (2012)
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2012. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of John Wiley & Sons for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Change Biology 18 (2012): 2756–2770, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02744.x.
    Description: Sea ice conditions in the Antarctic affect the life cycle of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We present a population projection for the emperor penguin population of Terre Adelie, Antarctica, by linking demographic models (stage-structured, seasonal, nonlinear, two-sex matrix population models) to sea ice forecasts from an ensemble of IPCC climate models. Based on maximum likelihood capture-mark-recapture analysis, we find that seasonal sea ice concentration anomalies (SICa) affect adult survival and breeding success. Demographic models show that both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates are maximized at intermediate values of annual SICa, because neither the complete absence of sea ice, nor heavy and persistent sea ice, would provide satisfactory conditions for the emperor penguin. We show that under some conditions the stochastic growth rate is positively affected by the variance in SICa. We identify an ensemble of 5 general circulation climate models whose output closely matches the historical record of sea ice concentration in Terre Adelie. The output of this ensemble is used to produce stochastic forecasts of SICa, which in turn drive the population model. Uncertainty is included by incorporating multiple climate models and by a parametric bootstrap procedure that includes parameter uncertainty due to both model selection and estimation error. The median of these simulations predicts a decline of the Terre Adelie emperor penguin population of 81% by the year 2100. We find a 43% chance of an even greater decline, of 90% or more. The uncertainty in population projections reflects large differences among climate models in their forecasts of future sea ice conditions. One such model predicts population increases over much of the century, but overall, the ensemble of models predicts that population declines are far more likely than population increases. We conclude that climate change is a significant risk for the emperor penguin. Our analytical approach, in which demographic models are linked to IPCC climate models, is powerful and generally applicable to other species and systems.
    Description: MH acknowledges support through the National Science Foundation. HC acknowledges support from NSF Grant DEB-0816514, from the WHOI Arctic Research Initiative, and from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.
    Keywords: Stochastic matrix population model ; Stochastic climate forecast ; IPCC ; Uncertainties ; Sea ice ; Seabirds
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
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  • 3
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    When the going gets tough, the tough get going: effect of extreme climate on an Antarctic seabird’s life history (2023)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-21
    Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Jenouvrier, S., Aubry, L., van Daalen, S., Barbraud, C., Weimerskirch, H., & Caswell, H. When the going gets tough, the tough get going: effect of extreme climate on an Antarctic seabird’s life history. Ecology Letters, 25, (2022): 2120– 2131, https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.14076.
    Description: Individuals differ in many ways. Most produce few offspring; a handful produce many. Some die early; others live to old age. It is tempting to attribute these differences in outcomes to differences in individual traits, and thus in the demographic rates experienced. However, there is more to individual variation than meets the eye of the biologist. Even among individuals sharing identical traits, life history outcomes (life expectancy and lifetime reproduction) will vary due to individual stochasticity, that is to chance. Quantifying the contributions of heterogeneity and chance is essential to understand natural variability. Interindividual differences vary across environmental conditions, hence heterogeneity and stochasticity depend on environmental conditions. We show that favourable conditions increase the contributions of individual stochasticity, and reduce the contributions of heterogeneity, to variance in demographic outcomes in a seabird population. The opposite is true under poor conditions. This result has important consequence for understanding the ecology and evolution of life history strategies.
    Description: We acknowledge Institute Paul Emile Victor (Programme IPEV 109), and Terres Australes et Antarctiques Françaises for logistical and financial support in Terre Adélie. The study is a contribution to the Program EARLYLIFE funded by a European Research Council Advanced Grant under the European Community's Seven Framework Program FP7/2007-2013 (Grant Agreement ERC-2012-ADG_20120314 to Henri Weimerskirch), to the program SENSEI funded by the BNP Paribas Foundation, and to the Program INDSTOCH funded by ERC Advanced Grant 322989 to Hal Caswell. SJ acknowledges support from Ocean Life Institute and WHOI Unrestricted funds, and NSF projects DEB-1257545, OPP-1246407 and OPP-1840058.
    Keywords: Fixed heterogeneity ; Frailty ; Individual quality ; Individual stochasticity ; Unobserved individual heterogeneity ; SICs
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 4
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    Effect of extreme sea surface temperature events on the demography of an age-structured albatross population (2017)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2017. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here under a nonexclusive, irrevocable, paid-up, worldwide license granted to WHOI. It is made available for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London.Series B, Biological Sciences 372 (2017): 2016.0143, doi: 10.1098/rstb.2016.0143.
    Description: Climate changes include concurrent changes in environmental mean, variance and extremes, and it is challenging to understand their respective impact on wild populations, especially when contrasted age-dependent responses to climate occur. We assessed how changes in mean and standard deviation of sea surface temperature (SST), frequency and magnitude of warm SST extreme climatic events (ECE) influenced the stochastic population growth rate log(λs) and age structure of a black-browed albatross population. For changes in SST around historical levels observed since 1982, changes in standard deviation had a larger (threefold) and negative impact on log(λs) compared to changes in mean. By contrast, the mean had a positive impact on log(λs). The historical SST mean was lower than the optimal SST value for which log(λs) was maximized. Thus, a larger environmental mean increased the occurrence of SST close to this optimum that buffered the negative effect of ECE. This ‘climate safety margin’ (i.e. difference between optimal and historical climatic conditions) and the specific shape of the population growth rate response to climate for a species determine how ECE affect the population. For a wider range in SST, both the mean and standard deviation had negative impact on log(λs), with changes in the mean having a greater effect than the standard deviation. Furthermore, around SST historical levels increases in either mean or standard deviation of the SST distribution led to a younger population, with potentially important conservation implications for black-browed albatrosses.
    Description: Work carried out at Canyon des Sourcils Noirs was supported by Institut Paul Emile Victor (IPEV program no.109) and Terres Australes et Antarctiques Françaises. S.J. thanks support from NSF-Antarctic Sciences Division (project no. 1246407), the Grayce B. Kerr Fund and the Penzance Endowed Fund in Support of Assistant Scientists. D.P. PhD was supported by a grant from the French Research Minister CNRS-INEE.
    Keywords: Age ; Climate change ; IPCC ; Matrix population model ; Sensitivity analysis ; Survival
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
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  • 5
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    Interacting effects of unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity in the life-history of the Southern fulmar (2017)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2017. This is the author's version of the work. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Journal of Animal Ecology 87 (2018): 212-222, doi:10.1111/1365-2656.12752.
    Description: Individuals are heterogeneous in many ways. Some of these differences are incorporated as individual states (e.g., age, size, breeding status) in population models. However, substantial amounts of heterogeneity may remain unaccounted for, due to genetic, maternal, or environmental factors. Such unobserved heterogeneity (UH) affects the behavior of heterogeneous cohorts via intra-cohort selection and contributes to inter-individual variance in demographic outcomes such as longevity and lifetime reproduction. Variance is also produced by individual stochasticity, due to random events in the life cycle of wild organisms, yet no study thus far has attempted to decompose the variance in demographic outcomes into contributions from unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity for an animal population in the wild. We developed a stage-classified matrix population model for the Southern fulmar breeding on Ile des Pétrels, Antarctica. We applied multi-event, multi-state markrecapture methods to estimate a finite mixture model accounting for UH in all vital rates and Markov chain methods to calculate demographic outcomes. Finally, we partitioned the variance in demographic outcomes into contributions from unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity. We identify three UH groups, differing substantially in longevity, lifetime reproductive output, age at first reproduction, and in the proportion of the life spent in each reproductive state. 14% of individuals at fledging have a delayed but high probability of recruitment and extended reproductive lifespan. 67% of individuals are less likely to reach adulthood, recruit late and skip breeding often but have the highest adult survival rate. 19% of individuals recruit early and attempt to breed often. They are likely to raise their offspring successfully, but experience a relatively short lifespan. Unobserved heterogeneity only explains a small fraction of the variances in longevity (5.9%), age at first reproduction (3.7%) and lifetime reproduction (22%). UH can affect the entire life cycle, including survival, development, and reproductive rates, with consequences over the lifetime of individuals and impacts on cohort dynamics. The respective role of unobserved heterogeneity versus individual stochasticity varies greatly among demographic outcomes. We discuss the implication of our finding for the gradient of life-history strategies observed among species and argue that individual differences should always be accounted for in demographic studies of wild populations.
    Description: We acknowledge Institute Paul Emile Victor (Programme IPEV 109), and Terres Australes et Antarctiques Françaises for for logistical and financial support in Terre Adélie. SJ acknowledges support from Ocean Life Institute and WHOI Unrestricted funds, and NSF projects DEB-1257545 and OPP-1246407.
    Keywords: Frailty ; Individual quality ; Latent ; Life expectancy ; Life time reproductive success
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
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