ALBERT

Description: Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960-2005) and future (2006-2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long-term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring (approximately 20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to approximately 10DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections.

Description: The Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE) was conducted September 27 through October 22, 2004 on the North Slope of Alaska. The primary objective was to collect a data set suitable to study interactions between microphysics, dynamics and radiative transfer in mixed-phase Arctic clouds. Observations taken during the 1997/1998 Surface Heat and Energy Budget of the Arctic (SHEBA) experiment revealed that Arctic clouds frequently consist of one (or more) liquid layers precipitating ice. M-PACE sought to investigate the physical processes of these clouds utilizing two aircraft (an in situ aircraft to characterize the microphysical properties of the clouds and a remote sensing aircraft to constraint the upwelling radiation) over the Department of Energy s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility (ACRF) on the North Slope of Alaska. The measurements successfully documented the microphysical structure of Arctic mixed-phase clouds, with multiple in situ profiles collected in both single-layer and multi-layer clouds over two ground-based remote sensing sites. Liquid was found in clouds with temperatures down to -30 C, the coldest cloud top temperature below -40 C sampled by the aircraft. Remote sensing instruments suggest that ice was present in low concentrations, mostly concentrated in precipitation shafts, although there are indications of light ice precipitation present below the optically thick single-layer clouds. The prevalence of liquid down to these low temperatures could potentially be explained by the relatively low measured ice nuclei concentrations.

Description: The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from fourteen chemistry-climate models. There is general agreement among the models at the broadest levels, showing column ozone decreasing at all latitudes from 1960 to around 2000, then increasing at all latitudes over the first half of the 21st century, and latitudinal variations in the rate of increase and date of return to historical values. In the second half of the century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off or even decrease depending on the latitude, resulting in variable dates of return to historical values at latitudes where column ozone has declined below those levels. Separation into partial column above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely due to differences in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and returns to 1960 levels before the end of the century, although there is a spread among the models in dates that ozone returns to historical values. Using multiple linear regression, we find decreasing halogens and increasing greenhouse gases contribute almost equally to increases in the upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere an increase in tropical upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in all models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century and returns to 1960 levels.

Description: Constraining how much and how fast the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) will change in the coming decades has recently been identified as the highest priority in Antarctic research (National Academies, 2015). Here we review recent research on WAIS and outline further scientific objectives for the area now identified as the most likely to undergo near-term significant change: Thwaites Glacier and the adjacent Amundsen Sea. Multiple lines of evidence point to an ongoing rapid loss of ice in this region in response to changing atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Models of the ice sheets dynamic behavior indicate a potential for greatly accelerated ice loss as ocean-driven melting at the Thwaites Glacier grounding zone and nearby areas leads to thinning, faster flow, and retreat. A complete retreat of the Thwaites Glacier basin would raise global sea level by more than three meters by entraining ice from adjacent catchments. This scenario could occur over the next few centuries, and faster ice loss could occur through processes omitted from most ice flow models such as hydrofracture and ice cliff failure, which have been observed in recent rapid ice retreats elsewhere. Increased basal melt at the grounding zone and increased potential for hydrofracture due to enhanced surface melt could initiate a more rapid collapse of Thwaites Glacier within the next few decades.

Description: Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32 degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degree C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.

Description: The NASA/GSFC Scanning Raman Lidar (SRL) was stationed on Andros Island in the Bahamas during August - September, 1998 as a part of the third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3) which focussed on hurricane development and tracking. During the period August 21 - 24, hurricane Bonnie passed near Andros Island and influenced the water vapor and cirrus cloud measurements acquired by the SRL. Two drying signatures related to the hurricane were recorded by the SRL (Scanning Raman Lidar) and other sensors. Cirrus cloud optical depths (at 351 nm) were also measured during this period. Optical depth values ranged from approximately 0.01 to 1.4. The influence of multiple scattering on these optical depth measurements was studied with the conclusion that the measured values of optical depth are less than the actual value by up to 20% . The UV/IR cirrus cloud optical depth ratio was estimated based on a comparison of lidar and GOES measurements. Simple radiative transfer model calculations compared with GOES satellite brightness temperatures indicate that satellite radiances are significantly affected by the presence of cirrus clouds if IR optical depths are approximately 0.02 or greater. This has implications for satellite cirrus detection requirements.

Description: An overview is given of the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) Arctic Clouds Experiment that was conducted in the Arctic during April through July, 1998. The principal goal of the field experiment was to gather the data needed to examine the impact of arctic clouds on the radiation exchange between the surface, atmosphere, and space, and to study how the surface influences the evolution of boundary layer clouds. The observations will be used to evaluate and improve climate model parameterizations of cloud and radiation processes, satellite remote sensing of cloud and surface characteristics, and understanding of cloud-radiation feedbacks in the Arctic. The experiment utilized four research aircraft that flew over surface-based observational sites in the Arctic Ocean and Barrow, Alaska. In this paper we describe the programmatic and science objectives of the project, the experimental design (including research platforms and instrumentation), conditions that were encountered during the field experiment, and some highlights of preliminary observations, modelling, and satellite remote sensing studies.

Description: The NASA/GSFC Scanning Raman Lidar (SRL) was stationed on Andros Island in the Bahamas during August - September, 1998 as a part of the third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3) which focussed on hurricane development and tracking. During the period August 21 - 24, hurricane Bonnie passed near Andros Island and influenced the water vapor and cirrus cloud measurements acquired by the SRL. Two drying signatures related to the hurricane were recorded by the SRL and other sensors. Cirrus cloud optical depths (at 351 nm) were also measured during this period. Optical depth values ranged from less than 0.01 to 1.5. The influence of multiple scattering on these optical depth measurements was studied. A correction technique is presented which minimizes the influences of multiple scattering and derives information about cirrus cloud optical and physical properties. The UV/IR cirrus cloud optical depth ratio was estimated based on a comparison of lidar and GOES measurements. Simple radiative transfer model calculations compared with GOES satellite brightness temperatures indicate that satellite radiances are significantly affected by the presence of cirrus clouds if IR optical depths are approximately 0.005 or greater. Using the ISCCP detection threshold for cirrus clouds on the GOES data presented here, a high bias of up to 40% in the GOES precipitable water retrieval was found.

Description: The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite was successfully launched in November 1997.The main purpose of TRMM is to sample tropical rainfall using the first active spaceborne precipitation radar. To validate TRMM satellite observations, a comprehensive Ground Validation (GV) Program has been implemented. The primary goal of TRMM GV is to provide basic validation of satellite-derived precipitation measurements over monthly climatologies for the following primary sites: Melbourne, FL; Houston, TX; Darwin, Australia- and Kwajalein Atoll, RMI As part of the TRMM GV effort, research analysts at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) generate standardized rainfall products using quality-controlled ground-based radar data from the four primary GV sites. This presentation will provide an overview of TRMM GV climatological processing and product generation. A description of the data flow between the primary GV sites, NASA GSFC, and the TRMM Science and Data Information System (TSDIS) will be presented. The radar quality control algorithm, which features eight adjustable height and reflectivity parameters, and its effect on monthly rainfall maps, will be described. The methodology used to create monthly, gauge-adjusted rainfall products for each primary site will also be summarized. The standardized monthly rainfall products are developed in discrete, modular steps with distinct intermediate products. A summary of recently reprocessed official GV rainfall products available for TRMM science users will be presented. Updated basic standardized product results involving monthly accumulation, Z-R relationship, and gauge statistics for each primary GV site will also be displayed.