ALBERT

Description: The purpose of this report is to identify fundamental issues for coupled data assimilation (CDA), such as gaps in science and limitations in forecasting systems, in order to provide guidance to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on how to facilitate more rapid progress internationally. Coupled Earth system modeling provides the opportunity to extend skillful atmospheric forecasts beyond the traditional two-week barrier by extracting skill from low-frequency state components such as the land, ocean, and sea ice. More generally, coupled models are needed to support seamless prediction systems that span timescales from weather, subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), multiyear, and decadal. Therefore, initialization methods are needed for coupled Earth system models, either applied to each individual component (called Weakly Coupled Data Assimilation - WCDA) or applied the coupled Earth system model as a whole (called Strongly Coupled Data Assimilation - SCDA). Using CDA, in which model forecasts and potentially the state estimation are performed jointly, each model domain benefits from observations in other domains either directly using error covariance information known at the time of the analysis (SCDA), or indirectly through flux interactions at the model boundaries (WCDA). Because the non-atmospheric domains are generally under-observed compared to the atmosphere, CDA provides a significant advantage over single-domain analyses. Next, we provide a synopsis of goals, challenges, and recommendations to advance CDA: Goals: (a) Extend predictive skill beyond the current capability of NWP (e.g. as demonstrated by improving forecast skill scores), (b) produce physically consistent initial conditions for coupled numerical prediction systems and reanalyses (including consistent fluxes at the domain interfaces), (c) make best use of existing observations by allowing observations from each domain to influence and improve the full earth system analysis, (d) develop a robust observation-based identification and understanding of mechanisms that determine the variability of weather and climate, (e) identify critical weaknesses in coupled models and the earth observing system, (f) generate full-field estimates of unobserved or sparsely observed variables, (g) improve the estimation of the external forcings causing changes to climate, (h) transition successes from idealized CDA experiments to real-world applications. Challenges: (a) Modeling at the interfaces between interacting components of coupled Earth system models may be inadequate for estimating uncertainty or error covariances between domains, (b) current data assimilation methods may be insufficient to simultaneously analyze domains containing multiple spatiotemporal scales of interest, (c) there is no standardization of observation data or their delivery systems across domains, (d) the size and complexity of many large-scale coupled Earth system models makes it is difficult to accurately represent uncertainty due to model parameters and coupling parameters, (e) model errors lead to local biases that can transfer between the different Earth system components and lead to coupled model biases and long-term model drift, (e) information propagation across model components with different spatiotemporal scales is extremely complicated, and must be improved in current coupled modeling frameworks, (h) there is insufficient knowledge on how to represent evolving errors in non-atmospheric model components (e.g. as sea ice, land and ocean) on the timescales of NWP.

Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Smith, G. C., Allard, R., Babin, M., Bertino, L., Chevallier, M., Corlett, G., Crout, J., Davidson, F., Delille, B., Gille, S. T., Hebert, D., Hyder, P., Intrieri, J., Lagunas, J., Larnicol, G., Kaminski, T., Kater, B., Kauker, F., Marec, C., Mazloff, M., Metzger, E. J., Mordy, C., O'Carroll, A., Olsen, S. M., Phelps, M., Posey, P., Prandi, P., Rehm, E., Reid, P., Rigor, I., Sandven, S., Shupe, M., Swart, S., Smedstad, O. M., Solomon, A., Storto, A., Thibaut, P., Toole, J., Wood, K., Xie, J., Yang, Q., & WWRP PPP Steering Grp. Polar ocean observations: A critical gap in the observing system and its effect on environmental predictions from hours to a season. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, (2019): 429, doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00429.

Description: There is a growing need for operational oceanographic predictions in both the Arctic and Antarctic polar regions. In the former, this is driven by a declining ice cover accompanied by an increase in maritime traffic and exploitation of marine resources. Oceanographic predictions in the Antarctic are also important, both to support Antarctic operations and also to help elucidate processes governing sea ice and ice shelf stability. However, a significant gap exists in the ocean observing system in polar regions, compared to most areas of the global ocean, hindering the reliability of ocean and sea ice forecasts. This gap can also be seen from the spread in ocean and sea ice reanalyses for polar regions which provide an estimate of their uncertainty. The reduced reliability of polar predictions may affect the quality of various applications including search and rescue, coupling with numerical weather and seasonal predictions, historical reconstructions (reanalysis), aquaculture and environmental management including environmental emergency response. Here, we outline the status of existing near-real time ocean observational efforts in polar regions, discuss gaps, and explore perspectives for the future. Specific recommendations include a renewed call for open access to data, especially real-time data, as a critical capability for improved sea ice and weather forecasting and other environmental prediction needs. Dedicated efforts are also needed to make use of additional observations made as part of the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP; 2017–2019) to inform optimal observing system design. To provide a polar extension to the Argo network, it is recommended that a network of ice-borne sea ice and upper-ocean observing buoys be deployed and supported operationally in ice-covered areas together with autonomous profiling floats and gliders (potentially with ice detection capability) in seasonally ice covered seas. Finally, additional efforts to better measure and parameterize surface exchanges in polar regions are much needed to improve coupled environmental prediction.

Description: The development of the new generation of floats (PRO-ICE) to be operated under ice was funded by the French project NAOS. Twelve PRO-ICE were funded by NAOS and nine by the Canadian Foundation for Innovation (FCI-30124). The GreenEdge project is funded by the following French and Canadian programs and agencies: ANR (Contract #111112), CNES (project #131425), IPEV (project #1164), CSA, Fondation Total, ArcticNet, LEFE and the French Arctic Initiative (GreenEdge project). The INTAROS project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program under grant agreement No. 727890. The setup of the ArcMBA system and the experiment described in section “Quantitative Network Design” were funded by the European Space Agency through its support to science element (contract #4000117710/16/I-NB). SSw was supported by a Wallenberg Academy Fellowship (WAF 2015.0186). The work at CLS (GL, PPr, and PT) has been funded by internal investment, in relation with on-going CNES and ESA funded studies making use of radar data over Polar regions. EMODNET (BK) is funded by the European Commission. NRL Funding (for RA, JC, DH, EM, PPo, OS) provided by NRL Research Option “Determining the Impact of Sea Ice Thickness on the Arctic’s Naturally Changing Environment (DISTANCE), ONR 6.2 Data Assimilation and under program element 0602435N (JC, RA, DH). JT’s Arctic research activities are supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation and ONR. SG was funded by NSF grants/awards PLR-1425989 and OCE 1658001. IR is funded by contributors to the US IABP (including CG, DOE, NASA, NIC, NOAA, NSF, ONR). CAFS is supported by the NOAA ESRL Physical Sciences Division (AS and JI). LB and JX are funded by CMEMS. The WWRP PPP Steering Group is funded by a WMO trust fund with support from AWI for the ICO. The publication fee is provided by ECCC.