ALBERT

Description: Researchers have compiled an initial list of radio/optical supernova remnants (SNRs) in M31, by searching for radio identifications of emission-line sources with a high (SII)/H alpha ratio (greater than 0.60). The (SII) filter included both sulfur lines and the H alpha filter did not include (NII). This search revealed 11 SNRs, of which only two were known. In addition, researchers detected radio emission from 3 SNRs that were identified in previous optical surveys (D'Odorico et al., 1980), but that were outside the charge coupled device (CCD) fields. The 14 objects only include the most obvious candidates, but a full search is in progress and the researchers expect to find several more SNRs. Also not all optical SNRs show detectable radio emission and a pure optical list of SNR candidates based only on the ratio of (SII)/H alpha emission contains many more objects. Two conclusions are apparent. First, the radio properties of the SNRs in M31 are quite similar to those of Galactic SNRs as is illustrated. The brightnesses are not systematically lower as has been suggested in the past (Dickel and D'Odorico, 1984). Second, the slope of the relation is close to -2; this slope is expected from the intrinsic dependence between surface brightness and diameter. The radio luminosity of the SNRs does not seem to depend strongly on diameter, or age, contrary to model predictions. Selection effects, however, play an important role in these plots. The CCD images show widespread diffuse ionized gas with a ratio of (SII)/H alpha that is higher than that of discrete HII regions. Discrete HII regions typically show ratios between 0.2 to 0.3, while the diffuse gas in the arms consistently shows ratios of 0.5. Researchers can trace this gas across the spiral arms to emission measures below 5 pc cm (-6). Its properties seem to be similar to that of the diffuse gas in the solar neighborhood.

Description: Taurus observations in the line of H alpha and Very Large Array (VLA) HI mapping of the HII complex No. 722 in M31, reveal what seems to be a spherical cavity 330 pc in diameter blown out by a stellar association of over 20(exp 6) years old. Evidence of induced star formation which was initiated less than 5(exp 6) years ago is present in the form of bright HII emission and numerous O, B and Wolf-Rayet stars which are found within the shell surrounding the cavity. The energy necessary to create the HI shell is estimated to be about 5(exp 51) erg.

Description: An observational parameter of our own Galaxy, the peak brightness temperature of neutral hydrogen in emission, was determined almost twenty years ago (Burton 1970). This quantity, although possessing a degree of local variations, has a remarkably consistent peak value of 125 K towards spiral arm segments with a few isolated peaks extending to 135 K, once sufficient spatial and velocity resolution are used (less than or equal to 70 pc, less than or equal to 5 km/s) to resolve the emission peaks. The higher spatial and velocity resolution of more recent surveys has not led to the detection of higher brightnesses. For many years this remarkable observational result has received little attention, primarily because similar data for other galaxies, which would allow a meaningful comparison and analysis, did not exist. Recently this situation has changed. A Westerbork survey of M33 (Deul and Van der Hulst 1987, and private comm.) with 40 pc x 8 km/s resolution has revealed consistent peak values of only 95 plus or minus 5 K (although there is still some question of whether the velocity resolution was sufficient in this case), while a Very Large Array (VLA) survey of M31 (Braun 1989a) with 35 pc x 5 km/s resolution has shown consistent peak values but at a temperature of 155 to 165 K. It has become clear that although peak HI brightness seems to be a well-defined quantity within individual galaxies (with a degree of local variation) there are very significant differences in this quantity amongst different galaxies. Researchers embarked on an observational program directed at a sample of 11 nearby galaxies: NGC 55, 247, 7793, 3031, 2366, 2403, 4236, 4826, 4736, 4244, and 5457. They hope to determine the gas properties and phases as a function of both galaxy type and position within the galaxies utilizing high resolution HI observations and optical narrow band imagery and spectroscopy which are now underway.

Description: A symposium celebrating the first 50 years of Dr. Joanne Simpson's career took place at the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center from December 1 - 3, 1999. This symposium consisted of presentations that focused on: historical and personal points of view concerning Dr. Simpson's research career, her interactions with the American Meteorological Society, and her leadership in TRMM; scientific interactions with Dr. Simpson that influenced personal research; research related to observations and modeling of clouds, cloud systems and hurricanes; and research related to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). There were a total of 36 presentations and 103 participants from the US, Japan and Australia. The specific presentations during the symposium are summarized in this paper.

Description: The effectiveness of techniques for creating "bogus" vortices in numerical simulations of hurricanes is examined by using the Penn State/NCAR nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5) and its adjoint system. A series of four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4-D VAR) experiments is conducted to generate an initial vortex for Hurricane Georges (1998) in the Atlantic Ocean by assimilating bogus sea-level pressure and surface wind information into the mesoscale numerical model. Several different strategies are tested for improving the vortex representation. The initial vortices produced by the 4-D VAR technique are able to reproduce many of the structural features of mature hurricanes. The vortices also result in significant improvements to the hurricane forecasts in terms of both intensity and track. In particular, with assimilation of only bogus sea-level pressure information, the response in the wind field is contained largely within the divergent component, with strong convergence leading to strong upward motion near the center. Although the intensity of the initial vortex seems to be well represented, a dramatic spin down of the storm occurs within the first 6 h of the forecast. With assimilation of bogus surface wind data only, an expected dominance of the rotational component of the wind field is generated, but the minimum pressure is adjusted inadequately compared to the actual hurricane minimum pressure. Only when both the bogus surface pressure and wind information are assimilated together does the model produce a vortex that represents the actual intensity of the hurricane and results in significant improvements to forecasts of both hurricane intensity and track.

Description: Hurricanes are well known for their strong winds and heavy rainfall, particularly in the intense rainband (eyewall) surrounding the calmer eye of the storm. In some hurricanes, the rainfall is distributed evenly around the eye so that it has a donut shape on radar images. In other cases, the rainfall is concentrated on one side of the eyewall and nearly absent on the other side and is said to be asymmetric. This study examines how the vertical air motions that produce the rainfall are distributed within the eyewall of an asymmetric hurricane and the factors that cause this pattern of rainfall. We use a sophisticated numerical forecast model to simulate Hurricane Bonnie, which occurred in late August of 1998 during a special NASA field experiment designed to study hurricanes. The simulation results suggest that vertical wind shear (a rapid change in wind speed or direction with height) caused the asymmetric rainfall and vertical air motion patterns by tilting the hurricane vortex and favoring upward air motions in the direction of tilt. Although the rainfall in the hurricane eyewall may surround more than half of the eye, the updrafts that produce the rainfall are concentrated in very small-scale, intense updraft cores that occupy only about 10% of the eyewall area. The model simulation suggests that the timing and location of individual updraft cores are controlled by intense, small-scale vortices (regions of rapidly swirling flow) in the eyewall and that the updrafts form when the vortices encounter low-level air moving into the eyewall.

Description: A numerical simulation of Hurricane Bob (1991) is conducted using the Penn State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model MM5 with a horizontal grid spacing of 1.3 Km on the finest nested mesh The model produces a realistic hurricane that intensifies slowly during the period of fine-scale simulation. Time-averaged results reveal the effects of storm motion. vertical shear, beta gyres and deformation forcing on the structure of radial inflow, vertical motion, and precipitation. Instantaneous model fields show that radial inflow in the eyewall is very intense near the surface but transitions to strong low-level outflow near the top of the boundary layer. The low-level structure is modulated by a wavenumber 2 disturbance that rotates around the eyewall at half the speed of the maximum tangential winds and is consistent with a vortex Rossby edge wave. The statistical distribution of vertical velocity in the eyewall indicates that the eyewall is composed of a small number of intense updrafts that account for the majority of the upward mass flux rather than a more gradual and symmetric eyewall circulation, consistent with the concept of hot towers. Tongues of high equivalent potential temperature, Theta(sub e), are seen along the inner edge of the eyewall updraft and within the low-level outflow. This air originates from outside of the eyewall with the highest theta(sub e) air coming from the layer closest to the surface after penetrating closest to the center. Occasionally, high Theta(sub e), air within the eye is drawn into the eyewall updrafts. The high Theta(sub e), air rising within the eyewall is shown to be associated with positive eyewall buoyancy with sufficient convective available potential energy along its path to produce relatively strong convective updrafts. Although the requirements for conditional symmetric instability are met within the eyewall and the air parcel trajectories follow slanted paths, the radial displacement of air parcels in the low-level outflow moves the air parcel sufficiently far away from the upper- warm core that the air becomes unstable to vertical displacements. Hence, convective instability rather than symmetric instability accounts for the stronger updrafts in the eyewall.

Description: The MM5 mesoscale model is used to simulate Hurricane Bob (1991) using grids nested to high resolution (4 km). Tests are conducted to determine the sensitivity of the simulation to the available planetary boundary layer parameterizations, including the bulk-aerodynamic, Blackadar, Medium-RanGe Forecast (MRF) model, and Burk-Thompson boundary-layer schemes. Significant sensitivity is seen, with minimum central pressures varying by up to 17 mb. The Burk-Thompson and bulk-aerodynamic boundary-layer schemes produced the strongest storms while the MRF scheme produced the weakest storm. Precipitation structure of the simulated hurricanes also varied substantially with the boundary layer parameterizations. Diagnostics of boundary-layer variables indicated that the intensity of the simulated hurricanes generally increased as the ratio of the surface exchange coefficients for heat and momentum, C(sub h)/C(sub M), although the manner in which the vertical mixing takes place was also important. Findings specific to the boundary-layer schemes include: 1) the MRF scheme produces mixing that is too deep and causes drying of the lower boundary layer in the inner-core region of the hurricane; 2) the bulk-aerodynamic scheme produces mixing that is probably too shallow, but results in a strong hurricane because of a large value of C(sub h)/C(sub M) (approximately 1.3); 3) the MRF and Blackadar schemes are weak partly because of smaller surface moisture fluxes that result in a reduced value of C(sub h)/C(sub M) (approximately 0.7); 4) the Burk-Thompson scheme produces a strong storm with C(sub h)/C(sub M) approximately 1; and 5) the formulation of the wind-speed dependence of the surface roughness parameter, z(sub 0), is important for getting appropriate values of the surface exchange coefficients in hurricanes based upon current estimates of these parameters.

Description: The existence of the Saharan air layer (SAL), a layer of warm, dry, dusty air that frequently moves westward off of the Saharan desert of Africa and over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, has long been appreciated. As air moves over the desert, it is strongly heated from below, producing a very hot air mass at low levels. Because there is no moisture source over the Sahara, the rise in temperature causes a sharp drop in relative humidity, thus drying the air. In addition, the warm air produces a very strong jet of easterly flow in the middle troposphere called the African easterly jet that is thought to play a critical role in hurricane formation. In recent years, there has been an increased focus on the impact that the SAL has on the formation and evolution of hurricanes in the Atlantic. However, the nature of its impact remains unclear, with some researchers arguing that the SAL amplifies hurricane development and with others arguing that it inhibits it. The argument for positively influencing hurricane development is based upon the fact that the African easterly jet produces the waves that eventually form hurricanes and that it leads to rising motion south of the jet that favors the development of deep thunderstorm clouds. The potential negative impacts of the SAL include 1) low-level vertical wind shear associated with the African easterly jet; 2) warm SAL air aloft, which increases thermodynamic stability and suppresses cloud development; and 3) dry air, which produces cold downdrafts in precipitating regions, thereby removing energy needed for storm development. As part of this recent focus on the SAL and hurricanes (which motivated a 2006 NASA field experiment), there has been little emphasis on the SAL s potential positive influences and almost complete emphasis on its possible negative influences, almost to the point of claims that the SAL is the major suppressing influence on hurricanes in the Atlantic. Multiple NASA satellite data sets (TRMM, MODIS, and AIRS/AMSU) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction global analyses are used to characterize the SAL s properties and evolution in relation to developing hurricanes. The results show that storms generally form on the southern side of the jet, where favorable background rotation is high. The jet often helps to form the northern side of the storms and rarely moves over their inner cores, so jet-induced vertical wind shear does not appear to be a negative influence on developing storms. Warm SAL air is confined to regions north of the jet and generally does not impact the tropical cyclone precipitation south of the jet. Of the three proposed negative influences, dry air appears to be the key influence; however, the presence of dry SAL air is not a good indicator of whether a storm will weaken since many examples of intensifying storms surrounded by such dry air can be found. In addition, a global view of relative humidity shows moisture distributions in other ocean basins that are almost identical to the Atlantic. The dry zones correspond to regions of descending air on the eastern and equatorward sides of semi-permanent oceanic high pressure systems. Thus, the dry air over the Atlantic appears to be primarily a product of the large-scale flow, but with enhanced drying at low levels associated with the Sahara. As a result, we conclude that the SAL is not a major negative influence on hurricanes. It is just one of many possible influences and can be both positive and negative.

Description: A revised Bayesian algorithm for estimating surface rain rate, convective rain proportion, and latent heating/drying profiles from satellite-borne passive microwave radiometer observations over ocean backgrounds is described. The algorithm searches a large database of cloud-radiative model simulations to find cloud profiles that are radiatively consistent with a given set of microwave radiance measurements. The properties of these radiatively consistent profiles are then composited to obtain best estimates of the observed properties. The revised algorithm is supported by an expanded and more physically consistent database of cloud-radiative model simulations. The algorithm also features a better quantification of the convective and non-convective contributions to total rainfall, a new geographic database, and an improved representation of background radiances in rain-free regions. Bias and random error estimates are derived from applications of the algorithm to synthetic radiance data, based upon a subset of cloud resolving model simulations, and from the Bayesian formulation itself. Synthetic rain rate and latent heating estimates exhibit a trend of high (low) bias for low (high) retrieved values. The Bayesian estimates of random error are propagated to represent errors at coarser time and space resolutions, based upon applications of the algorithm to TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data. Errors in instantaneous rain rate estimates at 0.5 deg resolution range from approximately 50% at 1 mm/h to 20% at 14 mm/h. These errors represent about 70-90% of the mean random deviation between collocated passive microwave and spaceborne radar rain rate estimates. The cumulative algorithm error in TMI estimates at monthly, 2.5 deg resolution is relatively small (less than 6% at 5 mm/day) compared to the random error due to infrequent satellite temporal sampling (8-35% at the same rain rate).