Publication Date:
2010-10-28
Description:
Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Pereira, Henrique M -- Leadley, Paul W -- Proenca, Vania -- Alkemade, Rob -- Scharlemann, Jorn P W -- Fernandez-Manjarres, Juan F -- Araujo, Miguel B -- Balvanera, Patricia -- Biggs, Reinette -- Cheung, William W L -- Chini, Louise -- Cooper, H David -- Gilman, Eric L -- Guenette, Sylvie -- Hurtt, George C -- Huntington, Henry P -- Mace, Georgina M -- Oberdorff, Thierry -- Revenga, Carmen -- Rodrigues, Patricia -- Scholes, Robert J -- Sumaila, Ussif Rashid -- Walpole, Matt -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2010 Dec 10;330(6010):1496-501. doi: 10.1126/science.1196624. Epub 2010 Oct 26.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Centro de Biologia Ambiental, Faculdade de Ciencias da Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal. hpereira@fc.ul.pt〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20978282" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
Keywords:
Animals
;
Aquatic Organisms
;
*Biodiversity
;
Conservation of Natural Resources
;
*Ecosystem
;
Extinction, Biological
;
Forecasting
;
Models, Biological
;
Plants
;
Policy
;
Population Dynamics
Print ISSN:
0036-8075
Electronic ISSN:
1095-9203
Topics:
Biology
,
Chemistry and Pharmacology
,
Computer Science
,
Medicine
,
Natural Sciences in General
,
Physics
Permalink
